AFLW 2026 - Round 5

WoSHBODS is forecasting seven home team wins and two away wins this week with one of those forecast away winners (Western Bulldogs) actually an underdog with the bookmakers.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

• Under 2 goals: 2 games

• From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

• Over 4 goals: 3 games

The average expected absolute margin is 18.4 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 17.3 points per game according to the bookmakers.

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WAGERS

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The table at right documents the usual differences between what I’ve eventually secured versus what I wanted.

Overall, Investors have a head-to-head interest in six games, and a line market interest in six also, with the head-to-head bets on one favourite and five underdogs, and the line bets on four favourites and two underdogs.

The head-to-head bets total just over 9% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets just under 12% of the Line Fund.

In total, then, about 10% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk.

READY RECKONER

This week’s Ready Reckoner is worth reckoning with.

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