AFLW 2023 - Round 12

WoSHBODS has very different ideas about the relative chances of the four teams in this week’s semi-finals, which sees it forecasting comfortable wins by both favourites.

Part of the reason for this is that, as currently parameterised, WoSHBODS does not update team ratings after Round 8 - a decision that will be reviewed in light of the new data provided by the 2023 season.

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WAGERING

WoSHBODS’ confidence has translated into some large wagers, especially in the Adelaide v Sydney game.

In total, we have just under 14% of the original Head-to-Head Fund at risk and just under 9% of the original Line Fund at risk. Combined, that means just under 10% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk.

You can see the various impacts on the Combined Portfolio across all possible game outcomes in the Ready Reckoner below.

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Clearly, the Adelaide wagers will have the largest say in profitability this week. A Crows win by 17 points or more will guarantee a profit for the round, and any other result will guarantee a loss.