AFLW Round 13 Results - Mild Green
/Both favourites won this week, although only narrowly, and WoSHBODS was tipping both and so moved to 71% accuracy for the season. It also recorded a Margin MAE of just 7.5 points per game and a Totals MAE of 7 points per game. That took it to a season long 18.8 Margin MAE, and 18.1 Totals MAE.
WAGERING
On wagering, Investors recorded a second straight profit, albeit a small one thanks to the overs bet falling narrowly short and the head-to-head bet falling narrowly … not shot.
The Combined Portfolio finished up by 0.1c on the week to move it to an 11c gain on the season, that from a +9.5% ROI on a 1.17 turn.
Overs/Unders betting aside, which accounts for only 10% of the Combined Portfolio, we can review the wagering performance of the two main Funds by making separate calculations for home versus away status, and favouritism versus underdog status, which we do in the table at right.
Line betting on away teams remains attractively lucrative, as does head-to-head betting on underdogs.
This week saw both wagers determined by less than a goal, which got me to wondering about how WoSHBODS has performed across the season in bets that have been decided this narrowly. The table at left reveals that about 25% of the Original Combined Portfolio has been wagered on bets that, it turned out, were decided by less than a goal,
About 50% of that amount has been associated with winnng bets and 50% with losing bets. If we reversed all of the close wins, the Portfolio would be 22.1c worse off, and if we reversed all of the close losses, the Portfolio would be 20.4c better off. Reversing all of the close results would see the Combined Portfolio 1.7c worse off.
In that narrow sense, WoSHBODS has had the better of the close finishes this season.
