WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners again this week, while the bookmakers tipped 7.

Its Margin MAE was 15.1 points per game, compared to 15.2 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 16.5 points per game, compared to 18.5 for the twobookmakers.

Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of +1.5 bits compares to +2.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

WAGERS

Only the Overs/Unders Fund made money this week, but its success was much more than overwhelmed by the Head-to-Head Fund and Line Fund losses. Altogether, the Combined Portfolio fell by just over 3c on the round to leave it now up by only 1.6c on the season, that from a +2.4% ROI on a 0.69 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

Below is a table recording how the teams rank on various Team Dashboard metrics.

The metrics most rank correlated with ladder position are:

MoS Win Production Function: +0.99
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.93
Own Goals per Game: +0.89
Own Points per Game: +0.87
Opponent Goals per Game: +0.86
Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.85
Opponent Points per Game: +0.84
Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.78
Q2 Performances: +0.78
Opponent Scoring Shots per Game: +0.73

No metric is rank correlated with ladder position less than +0.5.

Next come the details of the Team Dashboard in two parts.

In the top part we can see that there are only three teams with a winning streak of three games or more, and that includes the top two teams on the ladder. There are also now four teams with a losing streak of three games or more and they are the bottom four teams on the ladder.

We can also see that North Melbourne has scored an average of 10 games a game while conceding only three. St Kilda are roughly the opposite.

In the bottom half we see that:

North Melbourne has won 16 of 20 quarters this season, Melbourne 15, and Carlton and Sydney 13
Over the same time period, St Kilda has won only 4 quarters, Collingwood and Essendon 5, and GWS just 6
The teams that have outscored their opponents, on average, in every quarter are Carlton, North Melbourne, and Melbourne
Those that have been outscored by their opponents, on average, in every quarter are Collingwood, Essendon, GWS, and St Kilda
North Melbourne and Melbourne have yet to lose a Q4
Sydney have yet to lose a Q3
Collingwood have yet to win a Q2 or Q3
Essendon and St Kilda have yet to win a Q4
West Coast have yet to win a Q2
Western Bulldogs have scored only 8% of their points in Q3s