WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, as did the bookmakers.

Its Margin MAE was 19.5 points per game, compared to 18.9 and 19 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 25.9 points per game, compared to 21.9 and 21.8 for the bookmakers.

Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of +2.8 bits compares to +2.6 bits for the two bookmakers.

WAGERS

Saturday was an extremely profitable day, thanks largely to the Dogs upset win, while Sunday was a day of mostly giving it back. It all ended with the Combined Portfolio up by just over 2c on the round to leave it now up by 4.8c on the season, that from a +8.5% ROI on a 0.57 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

Below is a table recording how the teams rank on various Team Dashboard metrics.

The metrics most rank correlated with ladder position are:

MoS Win Production Function: +0.97
Own Goals per Game: +0.88
Own Points per Game: +0.87
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.81
Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.78
Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.76
Opponent Goals per Game: +0.71
Opponent Points per Game: +0.7

Those least rank correlated with ladder position are:

Q3 Performances: +0.43

Next come the details of the Team Dashboard in two parts.

In the top part we can see that there are now only five teams with a winning streak of two games or more, and that includes the top four teams on the ladder. There are also now only five teams with a losing streak of two games or more and they are the bottom five teams on the ladder.

We can also see that quite a number of teams, including Richmond in 13th who have registered more behinds than St Kilda have scoring shots.

In the bottom half we see that:

North Melbourne has won 14 of 16 quarters this season, Carlton 12, Melbourne 11, and Sydney 10
Over the same time period, St Kilda has won only 2 quarters, Collingwood 4, and Essendon and GWS just 5.
Carlton has a Q1 percentage of 713
Fremantle has a Q2 percentage of 600, North Melbourne 567, and Melbourne 405
Hawthorn has a Q3 percentage of 314
North Melbourne has a Q4 percentage of 473
St Kilda has quarter percentages of 22, 21, 36, and 25
West Coast has a Q2 percentage of 21
Collingwood has a Q3 percentage of 22
Adelaide has a Q4 percentage of 21. They’ve scored only 6% of their points in this quarter
Western Bulldogs have scored only 9% of their points in Q3s