MoSSBODS left all teams in the same order and MoSHBODS just switched the Lions into 4th ahead of the Pies, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.
Read MoreWhilst 8th on the ladder defeating 1st might’ve been a huge surprise in previous seasons, it was perhaps less so this season as the two teams entered their semi-final with Hawthorn ranked 3rd by MoSHBODS and Adelaide 7th and with the Crows’ favouritism coming solely from the putative advantage that the game’s venue was meant to confer.
In the other game, the Lions and Suns entered their match ranked 5th (Brisbane Lions) and 6th (Gold Coast) with essentially equal MoSHBODS Ratings, but with the Lions enjoying the venue performance advantage. Their victory was therefore much less of a surprise, although the margin larger than expected.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 7 points.
MoSHPlay has some preliminary thoughts on the two semi-finals (but not even semi thoughts on the preliminary finals)
Just the two games this week, and not much to separate the four sets of forecasts.
Read MoreThe bookmakers have both of this weeks’ games as close-run things, though still have both home teams as favourites.
Read MoreMoSSBODS swapped Collingwood into 3rd ahead of Brisbane Lions, and Sydney into 10th ahead of GWS, while MoSHBODS swapped Geelong into 1st ahead of Western Bulldogs, and moved Collingwood into 4th, Gold Coast into 6th, Adelaide into 7th, Fremantle into 8th, and GWS into 9th.
All of which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.
Read MoreIt’s been a while since the teams in 2nd, 4th, 7th and 8th prevailed in the first week of the men’s Finals - about 19 years if my data is correct.
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with the Crows by 2 goals as its final forecast, and now also has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay is preliminarily opting for the Crows by 2 goals.
There are four games this week, and the MoS twins have relatively similar views about the likely total scores in all of them, differing by no more than a couple of points in any single game.
With the notable exception of the Cats v Lions game, the bookmakers’ views are not all that different either.
Read MoreIf the bookmakers are right, all four of the weekend Finals should be close, albeit that the home teams should win all four.
Read MoreMoSSBODS left the team ordering unchanged and MoSHBODS swapped only Essendon and North Melbourne into 16th and 15th respectively, which left MoSSBODS at the end of the home and away season with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
Read MoreOne game, one predictable emphatic winner.
MoSHPlay_Marg therefore finishes the home and away season two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best, and a further three tips clear of ENS_Linear.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 1 from 1, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 146.1 from 207 (71%). That’s quite a predictable season.
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Suns by 51 points.
There’s only one game this week, and the MoS twins have very different views about its scoring potential compared to the bookmakers.
Read MoreJust the much unanticipated Gold Coast v Essendon game this week, which is expected to be won by around 10 goals by most respected forecasters.
Read MoreMoSSBODS and MoSHBODS moved only four teams this week, MoSSBODS swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Pies, and the Roos into 16th ahead of the Tigers, and MoSHBODS swapping Hawthorn into 3rd ahead of Adelaide, and the Swans into 11th ahead of Carlton.
That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
It’s very likely, therefore, that the team rated highest at the end of the home-and-away season by both Systems, will miss Finals.
Read MoreOnce again, seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which meant that all but Home Sweet Home (four) recorded that score.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 145.1 from 206 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has amended but still preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Gold Coast by 26 points.
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay has finished at Carlton by 23 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Carlton by 22 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is another small 1.7 points per game, and there are only two games where the difference exceeds 3 points. Overall, the twins have roughly the same average expected total, and that average is 4 points below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreOnly one game is expected to be close this week - Lions v Hawks, where the expected margin is 9 points - while the remainder are expected to be won by between 20 and 60 points.
To give the full details, one game is expected to be won by 9 points, six by between 20 and 30 points, one by 40 points, and one more by 60 points.
That of course augurs particularly poorly for contrarianism …
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