2025 - Round 14 : MoSHBODS Gets Choosy
/Only seven games this week, all of them expected to be won by about 5 goals or less, and three of them by 3 goals or less.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 13
/Both Systems lowered the Ratings of the Top 3 teams this week, but they remain, in order and for both, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.
In total, MoSSBODS moved only five teams this week and MoSHBODS only three, with Carlton (up 2 to 7th) and Adelaide (down 3 to 9th) the only multi-spot movers on MoSSBODS. No team moved by more than a single spot on MoSHBODS.
Read More2025 - Round 13 Results - Not Lucky
/SIx of the eight early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with minimal contrarianism once again, registered scores were mostly that number with the exceptions being Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder who both scored only four.
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 84.5 from 113 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 75.7 from 113 (67%).
Read More2025 - Round 13 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow’s game is Pies by 24 points.
UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 18 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 10PM
MoSHPlay now has some preliminary views about the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 27 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 12:30PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tonight’s game is Dogs by 26 points.
2025 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders
/The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is just under 3 points per game, with differences in two games as high as 5 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are, unusually, 5 or 6 points higher than the bookmakers’.
At least part of the reason for that difference is the rain that is expected to affect a number of games.
Read More2025 - Round 13 : MoSHBODS Breaks Out
/This week we have eight-ninths of a full round and it comprises six games that are expected to be won by the home team and by less than three goals, and two games that are expected to be won by the away team and by less than four goals.
Let’s see what the models make of the eight games.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 12
/Both Systems moved only three teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that they are, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats. On both Systems, the Pies and the Cats drew a little nearer to the Dogs, although the gap between the Pies and the Dogs on MoSHBODS is far smaller than on MoSSBODS.
The big movers on MoSSBODS were Adelaide (up 4 into 6th), Sydney (down 3 into 11th), and Carlton (down 2 into 9th). On MoSHBODS they were Adelaide (up 4 into 4th), Fremantle (up 2 into 8th), and Hawthorn (down 2 into 7th),
Read More2025 - Round 12 Results - Not a Lot In It
/Five of the seven early-week favourites got up this week, and, with minimal contrarianism, this was the score registered by all but Home Sweet Home (three) and MoSSBODS_Marg (four).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 78.5 from 105 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4.7 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 70.2 from 105 (67%).
Read More2025 - Round 12 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay is sticking with Lions by 37 points as its final forecast and also now has preliminary thought about the remaining games in the round.
UPDATE THURSDAY 1:30PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tomorrow’s game is Lions by 37 points.
2025 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins, as is becoming the norm, have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with five of the seven games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts, and in three of those by 4 points or more. Overall, the difference in their average Total is 2 points per game and their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 3 to 5 points per game.
Read More2025 - Round 12 : Very, Very Quiet
/This week we return to truncated rounds, and the seven games this week include four that are expected to be settled by less than three goals, and three that are expected to be settled by six goals or more.
Let’s see what the models make of that.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/Both Systems moved only two teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that the medals currently belong to, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.
Interestingly, such was the difference in conversion rates in the Cats v Dogs game (Geelong 74% to Western Bulldogs 48%) that, when coupled with the very large Geelong venue advantage, both Systems saw fit to lift the Dogs’ underlying rating and drop the Cats’ even though the Cats ran out 127 to 113 winners.
Read More2025 - Round 11 Results - The MoS Models Retain the Full Support of the Board
/Yet another six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this was the score registered by all but ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder (seven each), and Home Sweet Home and MoSSBODS_Marg (five each).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 73.5 from 98 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 65.5 from 98 (67%).
Read More2025 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 12 NOON
MoSHPlay has some updated preliminary thoughts about tomorrow’s games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay has settled on Cats by 2 points and also now has some preliminary thoughts about the remaining games in the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought (often it only has one) about tomorrow’s game is Cats by 2 points.
2025 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins again have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with six games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts and two of those by more than 5 points. Overall, however, the difference in their average Total is just a point. Their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 1 to 3 points.
Read More2025 - Round 11 : There's No Momentum in Wagering
/Tipping winners is not getting any easier. Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by about six-and-a-half goals, and the ninth by just over nine goals.
Those are fairly similar numbers to what we had last week, and that produced five games with game margins under 3 goals and had most Head-to-Head Predictors scoring 6 from 9, at best.
Let’s see what the models make of the week.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/MoSSBODS moved only four teams by multiple spots this week, but that included lifting the Cats from 5th into 3rd, and dropping the Lions from 3rd into 5th. MoSHBODS re-ranked a lot more teams than MoSSBODS, but only three by multiple spots, but also moved the Cats into 3rd, meaning that the two Systems now agree about the Top 4 teams being, in order, Dogs, Pies, Cats, and Hawks.
Read More2025 - Round 10 Results - But Few Cigars
/Another six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this was the score registered by all but the RSMP twins (five each), Home Sweet Home (also five), MoSSBODS_Marg (three), and Consult The Ladder (two).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 67.5 from 89 (76%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 59.5 from 89 (67%).
Read More2025 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 10 points.
UPDATE FRIDAY 9:45PM
MoSHPlay now has some fresh preliminary thoughts about the Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 9:30PM
We now have MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the remainder of Round 10.
UPDATE THURSDAY 9:30AM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tonight’s game is Suns by 8 points.
2025 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins have a few sizeable differences of opinions this week, with five games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts. Overall, the difference in their average Total is just a point. However, in contrast, their differences to the bookmakers range from 3 to 4 points.
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