2025 - Team Ratings After Round 11

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Both Systems moved only two teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that the medals currently belong to, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.

Interestingly, such was the difference in conversion rates in the Cats v Dogs game (Geelong 74% to Western Bulldogs 48%) that, when coupled with the very large Geelong venue advantage, both Systems saw fit to lift the Dogs’ underlying rating and drop the Cats’ even though the Cats ran out 127 to 113 winners.

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2025 - Round 11 Results - The MoS Models Retain the Full Support of the Board

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Yet another six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this was the score registered by all but ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder (seven each), and Home Sweet Home and MoSSBODS_Marg (five each).

That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 73.5 from 98 (75%).

The all-Tipster score came in at 6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 65.5 from 98 (67%).

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2025 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SATURDAY 12 NOON

MoSHPlay has some updated preliminary thoughts about tomorrow’s games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay has settled on Cats by 2 points and also now has some preliminary thoughts about the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought (often it only has one) about tomorrow’s game is Cats by 2 points.

2025 - Round 11 : There's No Momentum in Wagering

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Tipping winners is not getting any easier. Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by about six-and-a-half goals, and the ninth by just over nine goals.

Those are fairly similar numbers to what we had last week, and that produced five games with game margins under 3 goals and had most Head-to-Head Predictors scoring 6 from 9, at best.

Let’s see what the models make of the week.

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2025 - Round 10 Results - But Few Cigars

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Another six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this was the score registered by all but the RSMP twins (five each), Home Sweet Home (also five), MoSSBODS_Marg (three), and Consult The Ladder (two).

That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 67.5 from 89 (76%).

The all-Tipster score came in at 4.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 59.5 from 89 (67%).

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2025 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30PM

MoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 10 points.

UPDATE FRIDAY 9:45PM

MoSHPlay now has some fresh preliminary thoughts about the Sunday games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 9:30PM

We now have MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the remainder of Round 10.

UPDATE THURSDAY 9:30AM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tonight’s game is Suns by 8 points.

2025 - Round 10 : Turns Out We Didn't Have the Advantage

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Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by just over three goals or less, an eighth by just under four goals, and the ninth by just over five goals. Last week, numbers like those presaged a round that produced victory margins of 0, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, and 35, which works out to 10.3 points per game.

A similar round should make for low MAEs and some opportunities for Head-to-Head Predictors to benefit from contrarianism.

Let’s see what the models make of the week.

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 9

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In an interesting week, MoSSBODS lowered the Rating of its Top 4 teams, but left them in the same order, and MoSHBODS did the same for its Top 3. That left MoSSBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Hawks.

Further down, MoSSBODS re-ranked only four teams this week, and all by just a single spot, while MoSHBODS also re-ranked only four teams, but two teams by two spots: the Lions down 2 into 6th, and Gold Coast up 2 into 5th.

Interestingly, Geelong gained Rating Points on MoSSBODS (because of its 31 to 25 scoring shot “victory” over GWS) but lost them on MoSHBODS, while GWS did the opposite

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2025 - Round 9 Results - Close

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Six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and another one drew, but what set this round apart was the narrowness of many of the victory margins. Along with the draw, we saw wins by 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, and 15 points leaving only the Hawks’ 35-point win as the outlier.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors, only ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder joined Bookie Knows Best in recording a score of six-and-a-half, which left MoSHPlay, who scored one fewer, now three tips clear of the field and on 61.5 from 80 (77%).

The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 54.6 from 80 (68%).

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 8

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MoSSBODS only re-ranked seven teams this week, but none of the Top 4, and only Adelaide (up 3 to 9th) and Fremantle (down 2 to 12th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS was far more trigger-happy, and moved 12 teams, but only three of them by multi-spots: Carlton down 5 to 8th, Adelaide up 3 into 6th, and St Kilda up 2 into 12th.

That left the two Systems with the same set of teams in the Top 5 and, within that quintet, placing only the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn in a different order. Both now have the Dogs 1st, and the Pies 2nd.

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2025 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s final views on this evening’s fare, and new preliminary views on tomorrow’s.

UPDATE THURSDAY 10:30PM

MoSHPlay’s now has some preliminary thoughts about the remainder of games in the Round.

UPDATE THURSDAY 8AM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about tonight’s game have the Dons winning by 17 points.

2025 - Team Ratings After Round 7

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MoSSBODS re-ranked 11 teams this week, but none of the Top 3, and only Carlton (up 2 to 5th), Geelong (down 2 to 6th), Gold Coast (up 3 to 8th) and GWS (down 2 to 11th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS moved the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, and also moved four of them by multi-spots: Lions up 2 to 5th, Blues up 2 into 3rd; Geelong down 2 into 5th, and GWS down 2 into 8th.

That all left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Blues.

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