The MoS twins have a few sizeable differences of opinions this week, with five games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts. Overall, the difference in their average Total is just a point. However, in contrast, their differences to the bookmakers range from 3 to 4 points.
Read MoreSeven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by just over three goals or less, an eighth by just under four goals, and the ninth by just over five goals. Last week, numbers like those presaged a round that produced victory margins of 0, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, and 35, which works out to 10.3 points per game.
A similar round should make for low MAEs and some opportunities for Head-to-Head Predictors to benefit from contrarianism.
Let’s see what the models make of the week.
Read MoreIn an interesting week, MoSSBODS lowered the Rating of its Top 4 teams, but left them in the same order, and MoSHBODS did the same for its Top 3. That left MoSSBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Hawks.
Further down, MoSSBODS re-ranked only four teams this week, and all by just a single spot, while MoSHBODS also re-ranked only four teams, but two teams by two spots: the Lions down 2 into 6th, and Gold Coast up 2 into 5th.
Interestingly, Geelong gained Rating Points on MoSSBODS (because of its 31 to 25 scoring shot “victory” over GWS) but lost them on MoSHBODS, while GWS did the opposite
Read MoreSix of the early-week favourites got up this week, and another one drew, but what set this round apart was the narrowness of many of the victory margins. Along with the draw, we saw wins by 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, and 15 points leaving only the Hawks’ 35-point win as the outlier.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors, only ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder joined Bookie Knows Best in recording a score of six-and-a-half, which left MoSHPlay, who scored one fewer, now three tips clear of the field and on 61.5 from 80 (77%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 54.6 from 80 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with Pies by two goals for tonight’s game, and now has some preliminary, fairly non-controversial, views about the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tomorrow night’s game is Pies by two goals.
The MoS twins are far more in agreement than usual about likely scoring for all games in Round 9, with the largest difference being just four points and the average only 1.8 points per game. They both have all-game averages below those of the bookmakers, this week by about three to four points per game.
Read MoreSeven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by thirteen points or less, an eighth by just four goals, and the ninth by just under six goals, which again portends a tough week for tipping winners.
Let’s see what the models make of it all.
Read MoreMoSSBODS only re-ranked seven teams this week, but none of the Top 4, and only Adelaide (up 3 to 9th) and Fremantle (down 2 to 12th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS was far more trigger-happy, and moved 12 teams, but only three of them by multi-spots: Carlton down 5 to 8th, Adelaide up 3 into 6th, and St Kilda up 2 into 12th.
That left the two Systems with the same set of teams in the Top 5 and, within that quintet, placing only the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn in a different order. Both now have the Dogs 1st, and the Pies 2nd.
Read MoreSix of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this score was registered by all but two of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, MoSSBODS_Marg and Home Sweet Home, who both snagged seven.
That left MoSHPlay still four tips clear of the field and now on 56 from 71 (79%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.2 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 49 from 71 (69%).
Read MoreHere are MoSHPlay’s final views on this evening’s fare, and new preliminary views on tomorrow’s.
MoSHPlay’s now has some preliminary thoughts about the remainder of games in the Round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about tonight’s game have the Dons winning by 17 points.
The MoS twins have some quite large differences of opinion about likely scoring for a number of games in Round 8, with three differences in the five to seven point range. On average across the nine games, both MoS models are forecasting lower totals than both bookmakers, although this week the difference is only one or two points per game.
Read MoreMoSSBODS re-ranked 11 teams this week, but none of the Top 3, and only Carlton (up 2 to 5th), Geelong (down 2 to 6th), Gold Coast (up 3 to 8th) and GWS (down 2 to 11th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS moved the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, and also moved four of them by multi-spots: Lions up 2 to 5th, Blues up 2 into 3rd; Geelong down 2 into 5th, and GWS down 2 into 8th.
That all left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Blues.
Read MoreSeven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by just over three goals, and only the ninth by a more comfortable margin of eight goals.
I will, therefore, by very surprised if MoSHPlay repeats its Round 7 heroics of tipping all nine winners.
Let’s see what the other models make of it all for now.
Read MoreSeven of the early-week favourites got up this week, but only three of the Head-to-Head Predictors registered that score. MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the two successful underdogs to finish with a perfect score, while the two other MoS Predictors landed eights. Worst was Consult the Ladder’s five, just ahead of the RSMP twins’ sixes.
MoSHPlay now finds itself four tips clear of the field on 50 from 62 (81%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 42.8 from 62 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has made some small adjustments to its preliminary Sunday forecasts.
MoSHPlay is staying with Dees by 16 points tonight, but also now has some preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game have the Dees winning by 16 points.
Just for a little variety, this week the Totals markets went up in three tranches across about 75 minutes on Tuesday, at the end of which we find the MoS twins once again more bearish about scoring in almost every game than are the bookmakers.
Those two bookmakers are, on average, forecasting Totals about 4 points higher than the twins, albeit that the twins themselves again have some disagreements on individual games, which this week only are as large as 5 points and mostly are around 1 to 3 points.
Read MoreNine more games this week, with five of them expected to be decided by about two goals or less, two of them by around four or five goals, one by around six goals, and one more by around nine goals.
Those larger expected margins will hopefully make head-to-head tipping a little easier than last week.
Let’s see what the models make of it all.
Read MoreMoSSBODS made mostly single-spot re-rankings this week, although it did move over half the teams, the only multi-spot mover being Port Adelaide down 2 into 8th. MoSHBODS, while moving the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, moved four of them by multi-spots, including Western Bulldogs up 5 into 2nd, Brisbane Lions down 4 into 7th, Carlton up 4 into 5th, and Gold Coast down 2 into 8th.
Read MoreOnly four of the early-week favourites got up this week, leading to most Head-to-Head Predictors registering that score, the exceptions being MoSHPlay_Marg and Home Sweet Home with five, and Consult the Ladder with just two. That left MoSHPlay now two tips clear of the field on 41 from 53 (77%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 35.8 from 53 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay, finally given the data it needs to come up with a preliminary view, has the Cats winning by 3 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 6 points.
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about all bu the Monday game and they’re mostly similar to MoSHBODS’ although 7 points better for Essendon over West Coast, and 8 points better for Gold Coast over Richmond.
MoSHPlay has finished at the Lions by 14 points after making a small adjustment that moved the rounded value up by a point.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game have the Lions winning by 13 points.
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