2024 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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With the Lions and Dogs both losing this week despite registering more scoring shots than their respective opponents, and the Swans winning despite registering fewer scoring shots than their opponents, the extent to which you’re likely to agree with the latest MoS Team Ratings is going to heavily depend on the extent to which you agree with analyses that show scoring shot conversion is largely, though not entirely, random.

Both MoS Systems, given their respective in silico philosophies, thought the Dogs did enough to retain top spot, albeit after a Rating decline, while MoSSBODS was happy to keep the Lions in 2nd, but MoSHBODS dropped them to 3rd in favour of Port Adelaide.

Altogether MoSSBODS reranked nine teams this week and MoSHBODS 13. On MoSSBODS, five of those nine teams moved multiple spots, with Hawthorn climbing four spots, and Geelong and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling six spots, and Fremantle two. Five teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with GWS climbing three spots, Geelong, Collingwood and Adelaide climbing two, and Carlton falling seven.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are now separated by only 7.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 26 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 15th are separated by only 25 points.

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2024 - Round 22 Results - Not Gonna Happen, I'm Afraid

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Only three of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 22, and only the part-time contrarians in the form of the MoS trio and Consult the Ladder registered more than three from nine amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters. Full-time contrarian, Home Sweet Home, managed just two from nine.

That left MoSHPlay_Marg now three tips clear of RSMP_Simple at the head of the Leaderboard, and four clear of RSMP_Weighted.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 3.4 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 115.3 from 189 (61%).

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2024 - Round 22 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 3:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 10 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 5 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dons by 12 points and Power by 19 points.


UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:40PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 29 and Eagles by 2 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on Round 22. Extreme in three games, but nothing outrageous.

2024 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders

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There are some sizeable differences of opinion between the MoS twins again this week about likely Totals, differing by as much as 7 points in the Roos v Eagles game. MoSHBODS has the higher Total forecast of the pair in all but one game, and has an average expected Total 3 points per game higher than MoSSBODS.

That said, the bookmakers have, on average, even higher Totals expectations, and have come in a couple of points higher than MoSHBODS overall.

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2024 - Round 22 : No Stopping Now

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No game this week is expected to be won by more than 25 points, and seven of them are expected to be won by under 16 points, despite the fact that three games involve teams separated by 8 or more ladder positions. The six remaining games involve teams separated by no more than 4 ladder positions, two of which are the games with the largest lines. Once again, ladder position is a poor indicator of relative ability this year.

The all-game average expected margin is 14.4 points per game, which is up by about 3 points per game on last week.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 21

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The main questions this week were: how far will Sydney fall, and did the Lions do enough to take top spot on both or either Rating System?

For MoSSBODS, the answers were four spots to 6th and no, and for MoSHBODS they were six spots to 8th and also no.

MoSSBODS reranked 13 teams this week and MoSHBODS 12, which left agreement towards the top of the rankings only about the Dogs (1st), and Carlton (4th). MoSSBODS now prefers Port Adelaide for 2nd and Brisbane Lions for 3rd, while MoSHBODS has the same teams but in the opposite order.

Eight teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, with Adelaide and Essendon both climbing four spots, GWS and Collingwood climbing three, Gold Coast falling two, St Kilda falling three, Sydney falling four, and Melbourne falling six. Eight teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with Port Adelaide and Essendon climbing four spots, Collingwood and Adelaide climbing two, Fremantle falling two, Melbourne three, St Kilda five, and Sydney six spots.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 6.8 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 4th and 15th are separated by only 16 points.

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2024 - Round 21 Results - I Wouldn't Start From Here

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Five of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 21, which was a round that saw all but three of its games decided by 13 points or fewer. In the head-to-head tipping, best was Home Sweet Home’s 8 and worst MoSSBODS_Marg’s 3.

Most scored 5, however, which was also the all-Tipster average for the round, taking the season-long figure to 111.8 from 180 (62%). Amongst the scorers of five were MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins, which left them, collectively, in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the Leaderboard.

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2024 - Round 21 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 6 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 1 point.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 11 points and Power by 1 point.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 20 points.


UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 11 points.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 17 points.

UPDATE FRIDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 4 goals.

UPDATE THURSDAY 8:45PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on Round 21.

2024 - Round 21 : The Chosen Ones

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No game this week is expected to be won by more than about 3-and-a-half goals, notwithstanding that five of the contests pit teams that are separated by 6 spots or more on the competition ladder against one another. What’s more, one of the games with the 20.5 point handicap is between teams separated by only 3 ladder positions.

Yet more evidence that the competition ladder is a relatively poor indicator of ability at this point in the season (an observation that is only reinforced by the fact that Consult The Ladder, who picks the team team higher on the ladder to win every game, has only a 58% record this year, which is no better than naively picking the home team in every contest).

The all-game average expected margin is just 11.4 points per game, which is over 3 points per game lower than last week.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 20

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MoSSBODS reranked 10 teams this week, and MoSHBODS 11, which left them with a shared Top 5 of Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, a Carlton.

Ony four teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, with Hawthorn and St Kilda both climbing four spots, Adelaide falling four spots, and Gold Coast falling two spots.. Four teams also moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, with Adelaide dropping four spots, and Geelong two spots, and Hawthorn rising two spots ans St Kilda rising a hefty five spots.

On MoSSBODS, 1st and 13th are now separated by only 6.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 4 goals), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 11th are separated by only 18 points.

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2024 - Round 20 Results - A Little Humbling

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Just four of the nine early-week favourites were successful in Round 20, and the Head-to-Head Tipping scores ranged from Home Sweet Home’s 3 to Consult the Ladder’s and RSMP_Simple’s 6.

MoSHPlay_Marg recorded a just above-average 5 from 9, which was enough to keep it two tips clear of RSMP_Simple atop the Leaderboard. First and 7th are now separated by 6 tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.6 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 106.8 from 171 (63%).

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2024 - Round 20 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 1 point.

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 16 points.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 22 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 44 points and Dees by 5 points.


UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 4 points and Dons by 6 points (and also has some updated preliminary views about the Sunday games)

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 20.

2024 - Round 20 : We Might Have Some Regress

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Again this week, two-thirds of the games are expected to be won by less than three goals, despite the fact that, in half of those games, the teams are separated by 7 spots or more on the competition ladder. In two other games the expected margins are about 4 goals while the ladder separations are 5 and 11 spots, and, in the last game, the expected margin is just under 6 goals and the ladder separation is 12 spots.

All of which is to say that the competition ladder right now is only a rough indicator of many teams’ relative ability. If MoSHBODS is to be trusted, the rank correlation between the ranking of teams based on their MoSHBODS Combined Rating and the ranking of them provided by the competition ladder is just +0.86.)

The all-game average expected margin is 14.7 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game lower than last week.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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MoSSBODS reranked a remarkable 15 teams this week, and MoSHBODS an almost as remarkable 12, which left them with a shared Top 3 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.

Eleven teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, the biggest climbs being Gold Coast and Hawthorn up 3 spots, and the biggest falls being Collingwood and GWS down 3 spots. Only five teams moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, but they included Collingwood down 6 spots, Melbourne down 3 spots, and Hawthorn up 4 spots.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are now separated by only 5.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 20 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 13th are separated by only 17.4 points. It remains outrageous.

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2024 - Round 19 Results - Randomness is Hard to Predict

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Again this week, six of the nine early-week favourites were successful, and the large-scale conformity saw Head-to-Head Tipping scores ranging only from Consult the Ladders’ and the RSMP twins’ 5 to Home Sweet Home’s 7.

The remaining Head-to-Head Tipsters all recorded scores of 6, but allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to eke out a three tip lead ahead of the RSMP twins and MoSHBODS_Marg. First and 7th remain are still separated by 5 tips, however.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 102.3 from 162 (63%).

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2024 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SunDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Blues by 46 points.


UPDATE 2:45PM SunDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Dockers by 17 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 2 points and Power by 6 goals (and has some updated preliminary views on the Sunday games).

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Round 19.

2024 - Round 19 : Models Have No Emotions

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Two-thirds of the games in Round 19 are expected to be won by less than about three goals, which include 4 games where the teams are separated by no more than 4 spots on the ladder. In another of the games where the ladder difference is just a single spot - the Saints v Eagles game - the expected margin is 4-and-a-half-goals. That leaves two games where the ladder differences are 9 spots and 15 spots, and the expected margins 40.5 and 34.5 points.

The all-game average expected margin is 18.5 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game higher than last week.

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