2024 - Round 20 : We Might Have Some Regress

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Again this week, two-thirds of the games are expected to be won by less than three goals, despite the fact that, in half of those games, the teams are separated by 7 spots or more on the competition ladder. In two other games the expected margins are about 4 goals while the ladder separations are 5 and 11 spots, and, in the last game, the expected margin is just under 6 goals and the ladder separation is 12 spots.

All of which is to say that the competition ladder right now is only a rough indicator of many teams’ relative ability. If MoSHBODS is to be trusted, the rank correlation between the ranking of teams based on their MoSHBODS Combined Rating and the ranking of them provided by the competition ladder is just +0.86.)

The all-game average expected margin is 14.7 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game lower than last week.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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MoSSBODS reranked a remarkable 15 teams this week, and MoSHBODS an almost as remarkable 12, which left them with a shared Top 3 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.

Eleven teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, the biggest climbs being Gold Coast and Hawthorn up 3 spots, and the biggest falls being Collingwood and GWS down 3 spots. Only five teams moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, but they included Collingwood down 6 spots, Melbourne down 3 spots, and Hawthorn up 4 spots.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are now separated by only 5.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 20 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 13th are separated by only 17.4 points. It remains outrageous.

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2024 - Round 19 Results - Randomness is Hard to Predict

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Again this week, six of the nine early-week favourites were successful, and the large-scale conformity saw Head-to-Head Tipping scores ranging only from Consult the Ladders’ and the RSMP twins’ 5 to Home Sweet Home’s 7.

The remaining Head-to-Head Tipsters all recorded scores of 6, but allowed MoSHPlay_Marg to eke out a three tip lead ahead of the RSMP twins and MoSHBODS_Marg. First and 7th remain are still separated by 5 tips, however.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 102.3 from 162 (63%).

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2024 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SunDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Blues by 46 points.


UPDATE 2:45PM SunDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Dockers by 17 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 2 points and Power by 6 goals (and has some updated preliminary views on the Sunday games).

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Round 19.

2024 - Round 19 : Models Have No Emotions

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Two-thirds of the games in Round 19 are expected to be won by less than about three goals, which include 4 games where the teams are separated by no more than 4 spots on the ladder. In another of the games where the ladder difference is just a single spot - the Saints v Eagles game - the expected margin is 4-and-a-half-goals. That leaves two games where the ladder differences are 9 spots and 15 spots, and the expected margins 40.5 and 34.5 points.

The all-game average expected margin is 18.5 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game higher than last week.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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MoSSBODS reranked only eight teams this week, and MoSHBODS only four, with neither of them touching their in-common Top 4s of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Western Bulldogs.

Only two teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Essendon down 2, and Melbourne up 2), while four moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS (Essendon down 3, GWS down 2, Melbourne up 2, and Adelaide up 3.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th separated are now separated by just 4.2 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 11.6 points. It’s outrageous.

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2024 - Round 18 Results - Yeah Nah, Yeah

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This week, six of the nine early-week favourites were successful, but there was sufficient contrarianism to produce Head-to-Head Tipping scores ranging from Consult the Ladders’s 4 to MoSHPlay_Marg’s 8.

The remaining Head-to-Head Tipsters all recorded scores of 6 or 7, which left MoSHPlay_Marg now two tips clear of the RSMP twins at the head of the Leaderboard, and three tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg.

1st and 7th remain are now separated by a slightly more generous 5 tips, and the all-Tipster average for the round was 6.4 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 96,5 from 153 (63%).

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2024 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by a goal.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 14 points, and Dees by 2 points.


UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 9 points.


UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 3 points and Swans by 61 points (and has some new though still preliminary views about the Sunday games).


UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by a point.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay’s initial preliminary thoughts about Round 18.

2024 - Round 18 : Then Again, We Might Not ...

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Two-thirds of the games in Round 18 are expected to be won by less than two-and-a-half goals this week, which include 4 games where the teams are separated by no more than 6 spots on the ladder. The remaining three games look less appetising and see 7th play 16th, 1st play 17th, and 8th play 18th.

The all-game average expected margin is 14.8 points per game, which is about 3 points per game lower than last week.

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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MoSSBODS reranked only seven teams this week, and MoSHBODS only nine, but now have only the same Top 4 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Western Bulldogs. Sydney benefited from the fact that, despite losing, they generated 8 more scoring shots than their opponents.

Six teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS: Hawthorn down 5, Collingwood and Melbourne down 2 each, Port Adelaide and Essendon up 3 each, and Geelong up 2. Five moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS: Hawthorn down 4, Gold Coast down 2, Port Adelaide and Essendon up 3 each, and Geelong up 2. After those moves, Essendon, despite sitting 4th on the competition ladder are now ranked 11th by both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 14th separated are now separated by just 5.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 19 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 13.5 points. It remains, in large part, an absurdly close competition this year.

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2024 - Round 17 Results - Yeah Nah, Nah

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For the second week running, only four of the nine early-week favourites were successful over the weekend, but that didn’t hinder Home Sweet Home, who returned a competition-leading 8 from 9 for the round, ahead of Consult The Ladder’s 6 from 9, and ENS_Linear’s 5 from 9.

The remaining Head-to-Head Tipsters all recorded 4 from 9, which left MoSHPlay_Marg still atop the Leaderboard by one tip from the RSMP twins and two from MoSHBODS_Marg and now ENS_Linear.

1st and 7th remain separated by just 3 tips, and the all-Tipster average for the round was 4.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 90,1 from 144 (63%).

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2024 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 32 points.

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 21 points.


UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 5 points.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

An update on MoSHPlay’s views for the remaining games of the round (including final views on the 1:45pm games today).


UPDATE 7:15PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 2 goals.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the nine games of Round 17.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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MoSSBODS reranked 13 teams this week, and MoSHBODS 15, but still have the same Top 6 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Collingwood.

Five teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS: GWS down 4, Essendon down 3, Hawthorn up 3, and Geelong and Adelaide up 2 each. Four moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS: Essendon down 3, GWS down 2, and Hawthorn and Adelaide up 2 each. After those moves, Essendon, despite sitting 4th on the competition ladder are now ranked 14th by both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 12th separated are now separated by just 4.6 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 15 points.

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2024 - Round 16 Results - The Struggle Continues

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Only four of the nine early-week favourites were successful over the weekend, but ENS_Linear, the RSMP twins, and two of the MoS trio were contrarian just often enough to do better than that, which left MoSHPlay_Marg atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard but now by only one tip from the RSMP twins and two from MoSHBODS_Marg.

1st and 7th remain separated by just 3 tips, and the all-Tipster average for the round was 4.9 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 85.3 from 135 (63%).

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2024 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 8 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 36 points.


UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 6 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 5 points and Dons by 6 points.



UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Gold Coast by 4 points.

(Note that there have been changes to the preliminary forecasts to the remaining games because of previous input errors - I’d used the game order from the original fixture on one but not all of my spreadsheets. Should have had Dogs by 47 and Swnas by 30, too, but can’t change these now they’re published and the game has started)

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 39 points and Swans by 24 points (and has some updated preliminary views on the Sunday games).


UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 37 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the round are below. At this point it’s extreme margin forecaster in five games, and extreme probability estimator also in five games.