2024 - Team Ratings After Round 5

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At the end of Round 5, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but in different orders. Both have GWS in 1st, but MoSSBODS has Port Adelaide in 2nd and Brisbane Lions in 3rd while MoSHBODS has Brisbane Lions in 2nd and Geelong in 3rd. It puts Port Adelaide only in 5th.

On both Systems, still, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 4.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 14.1 points.

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2024 - Round 5 Results - Steady

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Early week favourites fared far less well this week, with only half of them winning in a round that saw three games decided by 3 points or loss.

Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, having again mostly or entirely avoided contrarianism, registered just four from eight, leaving the ordering on the Leaderboard unchanged. The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.1 from 8 - bumped up slightly by Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 8 - which took the season-long figure to 30.8 from 46 (67%).

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2024 - Round 5 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Tigers by 15 points.

UPDATE 12:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 42 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Suns by 17 points and Power by 22 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Blues by 24 points.


UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has finished at Dogs by 17 points.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s is sticking with Melbourne by 18 points and now has some preliminary views about the remaining games in the round..


UPDATE 9:30PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thinking is Melbourne by 3 goals.

2024 - Team Ratings After Round 4

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At the end of Round 4, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but now only have Port Adelaide and GWS swapped across their two orderings.

On both Systems, however, the Ratings remain quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 12th are separated by only 4.3 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 14.8 points.

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2024 - Round 5 : Return to Calm

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We return to eight-game rounds this week, with seven of the contests currently expected to be decided by between two and four goals, and the eighth by about 9 goals. That could well make for a number of upsets - in fact, the expected number of favourite wins is only 5.8 from 8. The average expected margin is 23.1 points per game and home teams are favourites in all but the last game of the round.

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2024 - Round 4 Results - Keepin' the Faith

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Early week favourites fared fantastically this week, with all nine taking the chocolates, albeit by 10 points or fewer in four of the games. Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, therefore, having mostly or entirely avoided contrarianism, registered eight or nine from nine, the obvious exception being Home Sweet Home. Bookie Knows Best remains atop the Leaderboard, now just one ahead of ENS_Linear and the RSMP twins, and two ahead of the MoS trio.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 26.7 from 38 (70%).

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2024 - Team Ratings After Round 3

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There’s probably been enough football played now by each of the teams that it’s meaningful to look at how the various MoS Team Rating Systems rate and rank them.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but none of them in the same position. MoSSBODS has Melbourne 1st, Port Adelaide 2nd, and GWS 3rd, while MoSHBODS has GWS 1st, Melbourne 2nd, and Port Adelaide 3rd.

On both Systems, however, the Ratings are quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 13th are separated by only 4.3 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 14.7 points.

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2024 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 16 points.

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at St Kilda by 1 point.

UPDATE 12NOON SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at GWS by 22 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay is sticking with the Dogs, but only by 2 points.

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 5 points.

UPDATE 1:00PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 46 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 24 points.

UPDATE 4:30PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 31 points.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the rest of the round (and slightly amended view on tonight’s game, which is now Dees by 7 points).

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 6 points

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial view is Dees by 5 points

2024 - Round 3 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 8:15PM SUNDAY

Cats, but only by 5 points, is MoSHPlay’s initial thinking

UPDATE 11PM SATURDAY

Updated MoSHPlay thoughts on the Sunday games

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 5 points.

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on all but the Monday game.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s ends at Lions by 20 points

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Lions by 16 points

2024 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 6:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 42 points.

UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 9 points.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 30 points.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 23 points.

UPDATE 8PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remaining games, conditional on final squads being announced. Not straying far from its source, MoSHBODS, except in the Swans’ game.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 13 points

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary forecast is Pies by 11 points

2024 - Round 2 : Figures

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Five Round 2 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 2-and-a-half goals, two more by less than 4-and-a-half goals, and the eighth (which is all we have this week in the Season of Death By 100 Bye Rounds) by about 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is just under 20 points per game.

Home teams are favourites in only three of the eight contests, which is probably bad news for the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home.

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2024 - Round 1 Results - Still Mostly Fine

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I can’t yet exactly say why, but I just have this feeling that there’s something different about the 2024 season.

If nothing else, one of the definitely unusual features is the number of home team winners, of which there were 8 this week, one more than the number of early-week favourites.

In fact, all but Consult The Ladder and MoSHPlay_Marg recorded scores of 7 or 8 from 9, which left the all-Tipster average at 6.9 from 9.

Home Sweet Home currently heads the Leaderboard on 11 from 13 (85%) ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg on 10 from 13 (77%).

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