2024 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, the MoS twins are expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, and by quite some margin in a number of games.
Read More2024 - Round 4 : The Best Form of Defence ...
/We return to a nine-game fixture this week, with four contests currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, three more by less than 4 goals (give or take half a point), and the other two by about 6 goals and 9 goals. The average expected margin is 19.3 points per game and home teams are favourites in only three of the contests.
Read More2024 - Round 3 Results - A Mere Flesh Wound
/Four early-week favourites won this week, and four lost, which resulted in every Head-to-Head Tipster registering four from eight, leaving Bookie Knows Best on top of the Leaderboard, still just one ahead of six other Tipsters.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 4 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 18.8 from 29 (65%).
Read More2024 - Round 3 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 8:15PM SUNDAY
Cats, but only by 5 points, is MoSHPlay’s initial thinking
UPDATE 11PM SATURDAY
Updated MoSHPlay thoughts on the Sunday games
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points.
UPDATE 6:45PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 5 points.
UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on all but the Monday game.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay’s ends at Lions by 20 points
UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Lions by 16 points
2024 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, the MoS twins are expecting higher totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, but they do have a mixture of higher and lower figures for individual games.
Read More2024 - Round 3 : Regrouping
/Four Round 3 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, two more by less than 4 goals, and two more by about 6 to 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is about 22.5 points per game. Home teams are favourites in half of the contests.
Read More2024 - Round 2 Results - Not At All Fine
/The bookmakers, on the whole, did an excellent job this week, as 6 of the 8 early-week favourites were victorious, which saw Bookie Knows Best claim top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard, though just one ahead of six other Tipsters.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 14.8 from 21 (70%).
Read More2024 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 6:15PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 42 points.
UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 9 points.
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 30 points.
UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 23 points.
UPDATE 8PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remaining games, conditional on final squads being announced. Not straying far from its source, MoSHBODS, except in the Swans’ game.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 13 points
UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary forecast is Pies by 11 points
2024 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders
/It’s another week where all four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the all-game average Total, but where there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read More2024 - Round 2 : Figures
/Five Round 2 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 2-and-a-half goals, two more by less than 4-and-a-half goals, and the eighth (which is all we have this week in the Season of Death By 100 Bye Rounds) by about 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is just under 20 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in only three of the eight contests, which is probably bad news for the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home.
Read More2024 - Round 1 Results - Still Mostly Fine
/I can’t yet exactly say why, but I just have this feeling that there’s something different about the 2024 season.
If nothing else, one of the definitely unusual features is the number of home team winners, of which there were 8 this week, one more than the number of early-week favourites.
In fact, all but Consult The Ladder and MoSHPlay_Marg recorded scores of 7 or 8 from 9, which left the all-Tipster average at 6.9 from 9.
Home Sweet Home currently heads the Leaderboard on 11 from 13 (85%) ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg on 10 from 13 (77%).
Read More2024 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 6:15PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has flipped and gone the Lions by 1 point
UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY
It’s Port by 46 points, accoriding to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay ends with it as Dees by 13 pointsU
UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends with it as Suns by 9 points
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends with at Cats by 2 goals
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends with the Giants by 53 points (assuming Haynes and Shiels are the subs)
UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends at the underdog Hawks by 10 points
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay ends at the Pies by 14 points (subject to confirmation that the subs are Macrae and Wicks)
UPDATE 11:30PM THURSDAY
Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thinking on the remaining games in the round, pending team finalisations.
UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay finishes by forecasting that the Blues will win by 7 points (subject to Mansell being conformed as the sub for the Tigers)
UPDATE 10:15PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay is a little less confident about the home team’s chance in the Thursday night game (although this might change when the final teams are named) and currently has the Blues winning by only 8 points
2024 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders
/All four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the nine-game average Total, but there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read More2024 - Round 1 : One More Than Zero
/Six Round 1 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, and a seventh by less than 20 points, leaving only two that are expected to be won by 7 goals or more. The average expected margin is just 17.4 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in eight of the nine contests, with Fremantle the only exception and that, of course, is great news for Home Sweet Home, who already finds himself in equal top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipping Leaderboard.
Read More2024 - Round 0 Results - A Fine Start
/The bookmakers did a reasonable job of tipping winners this week, missing out only in the Lions v Blues game and even there only by a point.
Home Sweet Home and the MoS trio shared top honours with BKB on Head-to-Head Tipping, whilst Consult The Ladder finished with a startling 0 from 4.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.3 from 4, which took the all-season accuracy to just over 58%.
Read More2024 - Round 0 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 15 points.
UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.
UPDATE 8:30PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on the remaining games of the round (assuming that the average quality of the final 23s will be the same as the average quality of the currently named squads including the Interchanges but not the Emergencies).
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay has ended at Swans by 9 points
2024 - Round 0 : Overs/Unders
/In this week’s amuse-bouche round, MoSSBODS is forecasting, on average, slightly higher scores than the bookmakers, while MoSHBODS is forecasting slightly lower scores.
Read More2024 - Round 0 : This Comp Goes All the Way to Zero
/Welcome back
The men’s 2024 AFL season starts off weirdly in at least three ways: there are only four games in the opening round, Carlton and Richmond don’t face one another, and the round is numbered 0.
There are, at this stage, four home team favourites, including the Giants over the 2023 Premiers by about half a goal. The strongest of the favourites are the Lions who are currently expected to defeat the Blues by just over 3 goals.
Read MoreMoS for the Men's 2024 AFL Season
/The men’s 2024 version of MoS will be much the same as the men’s 2023 edition, especially on the forecasting front.
You will again see somewhere on the site weekly posts predicitng results for the round ahead, reviewing the results of the round just gone, updating Team Ratings and the Team Dashboard, and projecting the remainder of the home and away season and the Finals using a technique I railed against for many years.
The main changes are decribed in the sections that follow.
Read More2023 - Final Overs/Unders Results
/RESULTS for the grand final
Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were spread amongst MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers this week in the sole game that we had:
Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)
Home Team Scores: TAB
Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB
The season-long round win tallies finish at:
Game Margins: TAB (9.5 incl 5 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 5 ties)
Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (6)
Game Totals: MoSSBODS (10) / TAB (9.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)
