2023 - Round 28 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins fancy that the Grand Final will be lower scoring than do the bookmakers, and by as much as 2 goals.
Read More2023 - Round 28 : MoS Stays Bold
/It’s 1st v 2nd in the Grand Final, a matchup that has only occurred 7 times since 2000, and that hasn’t been a happy pairing for Minor Premiers who’ve won only 2 of those 7.
But this year is this year and has no obligation to follow trend, and the bookmakers have the Pies as about 5-point favourites.urites.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 27
/The Giants, barring a huge Lions win in the Grand Final, will finish the season ranked 1st on both MoS Systems, despite dropping 0.3 SS of Rating on MoSSBODS this week.
The only moves on the rankings were, on MoSSBODS, Adelaide and Brisbane Lions switching 3rd and 4th, and Carlton and Western Bulldogs switching 9th and 10th and, on MoSHBODS, Melbourne and Brisbane Lions switching 2nd and 3rd.
Ten teams are now rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 19.8 points.
It’s been, as we thought fairly early on, a very even competition with no stand out teams.
Read More2023 - Round 27 Results - All of Your Favourites Again
/After scares of varying magnitudes, both favourites prevailed this week, knocking 5th and 7th out of the competition in Week 3 of the Finals, a fate that teams from 5th have only suffered three times, and teams from 7th only once, in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.
Those results cost MoSHPlay_Marg as share of the lead, and allowed MoSHBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple to take joint leadership on 147 from 215 (68%).
The all-Tipster average for the round was 1.8 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 141 from 215 (66%).
Read More2023 - Round 27 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay has ended at Giants by 4 points
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay has joined MoSSBODS in forecasting a Giants win on Friday night.
2023 - Round 27 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins have quite similar views to the bookmakers’ about the likely Totals in each game, even though they disagree quite significantly about the shares of those Totals that each team will secure.
Read More2023 - Round 27 : MoS Gets Bold
/This round sees 1st play 7th for the first time in Finals history since 2000, and 2nd play 5th for only the fourth time.
At present, the bookmakers have the Pies as about 11-point favourites, and the Lions as about 20-point favourites.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 26
/The Giants impressed both MoS Systems enough on Saturday night to have them both install GWS as their top-rated team. MoSSBODS also thought Melbourne did enough to earn 2nd place ahead of the Lions, while MoSHBODS was happy to leave the Lions marginally ahead of the Dees.
Collingwood, despite not playing, rose a spot on both Systems into 8th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 26 Results - None of Your Favourites
/Both underdogs won this week, knocking 3rd and 4th out of the competition in straight sets, a fate that teams from these positions have only suffered five times in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.
Those results meant that MoSHPlay_Marg’s lone contrarian tip was the only scorer for the round, and allowed it to move into joint 1st with MoSHBODS_Marg on 145 from 213 (68%).
The all-Tipster average for the round was 0.1 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 139.2 from 213 (65%).
Read More2023 - Round 26 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by a point
UPDATE 7:15PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 5 points
UPDATE 7:45PM THUIRSDAY
MoSHPlay is currently opting for an upset in the Power v Giants game
2023 - Round 26 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins have similar views to the bookmakers’ about the Power v Giants game, but very different views about the Dees v Blues game, which they see as producing only 139 points. That’s about three goals less than the bookmaker view.
Read More2023 - Round 26 : Everyone Agrees
/Recent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.
That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 25
/After the Elimination and Qualifying Finals, the MoS twins now agree that Brisbane Lions should be ranked 1st, and GWS 2nd. Thereafter, MoSSBODS has it as Adelaide, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Sydney, while MoSHBODS has it as Melbourne, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Sydney.
Both of them remain resolutely unimpressed with Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 9th and MoSHBODS 7th.
Read More2023 - Round 25 Results - All Your Favourites
/As is often the case, favouritism weighs heavily in Finals, and so it was that Bookie Knows Best snared 4 from 4 this week, a feat matched only by RSMP twins. That allowed RSMP_Simple to join MoSHBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 145 from 211 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg now sits in 3rd place, one tip behind.
Those results left the minor premiers with the best week 1 record of 75%, just ahead of 2nd place’s 71% record. Teams from 5th position still have the worst record, although that is now nearing 60%.
Overall the teams finishing higher on the ladder than their opponents now have a 64 and 32 or 2-in-3 winning record.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 3 from 4, which took the all-season figure to 139.1 from 211 (66%).
Read More2023 - Round 25 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 2:45PM
MoSHPlay ends at Giants by 5 points.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay ends at Blues by 13 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 6 points.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay is sticking with the family and going Dees by 9 points
2023 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins are forecasting generally similar totals to the bookmakers this week, with the exception of the Saints v Giants game where they are over a goal lower.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 24
/We finish the home-and-away season with MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agreeing on the Top 6 teams, but with the Top 4 in very different orders.
Adelaide, with only a relatively modest +1 Scoring Shot increase in its Combined Rating, moved back into top spot on MoSSBODS. They also moved up on MoSHBODS, but only into 4th.
Brisbane Lions gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS
Melbourne also gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS
GWS also gained Rating on both Systems, but in particular on MoSHBODS, to finish in 4th on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS
Port Adelaide lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 5th on both Systems
Carlton lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 6th on both Systems
Both of those 1st place rankings seem a little curious, but the underlying story is, I think, that there are no standout teams this season, so a week or two of unexpectedly strong performances can catapult a team well up the rankings. To illustrate that point, note that the gap between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSSBODS is only 1.7 Scoring Shots (or about 6 points at average conversion rates), and between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSHBODS is only 5.1 points.
By way of comparison, the gaps between 1st and 6th at the end of the 2022 home and away season were 6.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 25.1 points on MoSHBODS, which are about 4 to 5 times the size.
Read More2023 - Round 25 : Eight Teams, Nine Games
/Recent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.
That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.
Read More2023 - Round 24 Results - That'll Do
/If ever there was a week to take notice of each team’s ladder position, this was it, as just 4 of the 9 early-week favourites were successful, but 7 of the 9 teams higher on the competition ladder took the four points.
At the top of the Leaderboard, however, MoSHBODS_Marg managed 4 from 9 to now lead MoSHPlay_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple by two tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 136.1 from 207 (66%).
Read More2023 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 5:30PM SUNDAY
Blues by 1 point, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY
Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 12PM SUNDAY
Power by 26 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
It’s the Dogs by 7 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 24 points
UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 11 and Gold Coast by 29 for the Super Saturday fixtures
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 27 points
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about the final home and away round
