Early-week favourites fared fairly well this week, which helped the Head-to-Head Tipsters record a 6.7 from 9 aggregate performance. Best was Consult The Ladders’ 8 from 9, and worst the 6 from 9 scores of the MoS trio and ENS_Linear.
MoSHBODS_Marg still retains a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg , however, and a three tip lead over ENS_Linear and, now, RSMP_Simple.
The all-Tipster all-season figure is now 126.4 from 189 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 5 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 42 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 8 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Brisbane Lions by 14 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Essendon by 19 points and Sydney by 23 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s thoughts on the Round 22 games
The MoS twins are, yet again, forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, but only by about half a goal a game.
Read MoreTwo-thirds of Round 22 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 6 spots on the competion ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines are 8.5 and 23.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 15.5 to 19.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 2.5 and 23.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines range from 5.5 to 22.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.79.
The large number of games pitting teams relatively close on the ladder has translated into generally low handicaps, the overall average coming in at 14.8 points per game, which is down by about 8 points on the Round 21 average, and down by about eight-and-a-half points on the all-time average for Round 22s. It drops the all-Season average to 18.2 points per game.
Read MoreIt’s really far too late in the season for Team Rating Systems to be rerating too many teams, but the nature of the 2023 season has made that almost a requirement.
On both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, only five teams were unmoved, and the moves were as large as eight spots.
The big movers were:
On MoSSBODS
Western Bulldogs (up 5 to 3rd)
Carlton (up 2 to 2nd)
Adelaide (up 2 to 7th)
Hawthorn (up 2 to 14th)
Collingwood (down 6 to 9th)
Melbourne (down 3 to 5th)
St Kilda (down 2 to 15th)
On MoSHBODS
Western Bulldogs (up 5 to 3rd)
Carlton (up 3 to 2nd)
Port Adelaide (up 2 to 4th)
Hawthorn (up 3 to 13th)
Collingwood (down 8 to 9th)
Melbourne (down 2 to 5th)
It’s been fun and odd these past two weeks after seeing questions being raised by Pies fans on Twitter (sorry, X) about why so many statistical models didn’t rate their beloved 16 and 2 team particularly highly at the end of Round 19. The short answer is: because they’d won so many games by not so many points, and that they had an okay but not outstanding 6 and 2 record against teams then in the Top 8. The fact that they’ve gone 0 and 2 since then isn’t a huge surprise to any of us with models, but the vitriol aimed at the more prominent people who pointed out the Pies’ apparent frailty is a stark reminder to me about how far from mainstream are statistical ideas, and how deeply the shallow Win-Loss record is felt to be a reliable indicator of a team’s underlying ability.
Anyway, to this week’s results, where my entirely in-silico head-to-head models managed scores ranging from 5 to 8 out of 9, and where MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were the only two Tipsters to snag 8 from 9 and, in so doing, secured 1st and 2nd places on the Leaderboard.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.8 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 119.8 from 180 (67%).
Read MoreBlues by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay
Cats by 24 points and Giants by 8 points, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay has it as Pies by 30 points
MoSHPlay has it as Dons by 57 and Crows by 27 points (plus there are some updates to the Sunday game forecasts here)
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 21
The MoS twins are forecasting generally lower scoring than are the bookmakers this week, but are predicting higher scores in some games and lower scores in others.
Read MoreOver half of Round 21 contests involved teams that are five spots or less distant on the competion ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by between three and five ladder positions and where the lines range from 4.5 to 50.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by seven ladder positions and where the line is 8.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by between 12 and 15 ladder positions and where the lines range from 17.5 to 40.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.77.
That relatively high average ladder separation has translated into high average handicaps, the overall average coming in at 22.7 points per game, which is up by over 8-and-a-half points on the Round 20 average, but down by about half-a-point on the all-time average for Round 21s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.3 points per game.
Read MoreThere were some big moves on both Systems towards the top this week, which left the Lions in 1st on MoSSBODS but now ahead of the Dees and the Pies, and saw the Pies grab 1st on MoSHBODS, ahead of the Lions and the Dees.
In total, nine teams changed places on MoSSBODS, six of them by more than two spots, and nine changed places on MoSHBODS, five of them by more than two spots. Some of the bigger moves were Melbourne and Collingwood up by 3 spots, and Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Richmond down by 3 spots on MoSSBODS, and Melbourne and Adelaide up by 3 spots, Geelong down by 3 spots, and Port Adelaide down by 5 spots on MoSHBODS. Those are some large movements for this late in the season.
Read MoreWhen the average Head-to-Head Tipster records a worse than 1-in-3 record, and the best manages only 4 from 9, you know it’s been a tough round to tip..
MoSHBODS_Marg snagged three, but retains top spot, ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who bagged 4, and ENS_Linear, who also bagged 3. MoSHPlay_Marg scored only 1 from 9, and fell to equal 4th.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.7 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 113 from 171 (66%).
Read MoreRoos by 18 points, according to MoSHPlay
Hawks by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay
Lions by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 46 points and Dogs by 8 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 16 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s intial thoughts about Round 20 games
Across all nine games the MoS twins are forecasting a very similar average Total to the bookmakers this week, but there are some large differences for individual games.
Read MoreOnly three of Round 20 contests involve teams that are fewer than 6 spots apart on the competition ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 0.5 and 1.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 9.5
Three games where the teams are separated by between six and eight ladder positions and where the lines are between 13.5 and 42.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by 10 or 11 ladder positions and where the lines are between 2.5 and 22.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.86.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 14.1 points per game, which is down by about 4 points on the Round 19 average, and down by over 7 points on the all-time average for Round 20s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.1 points per game.
Read MoreOn MoSSBODS this week, the only movements at the top were Geelong moving into 3rd to supplant Melbourne, who fell to 5th. Brisbane Lions retained top spot ahead of Port Adelaide. On MoSHBODS, however, Geelong climbed into top spot, Brisbane Lions fell to 2nd, Collingwood retained 3rd, and Port Adelaide climbed two spots to take 4th.
Only three team moved by more than a single spot on MoSSBODS (Geelong up 2, Melbourne down 2, and Gold Coast down 3) and only three did the same on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide and GWS up 2 spots, and Melbourne down 2 spots).
In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreWhilst the jigsaw of which teams feature in the 2023 Grand Final remains far from completed, I think we made significant progress this weekend, which was one in which the Head-to-Head Tipsters fared pretty well.
In fact, four of them tipped the card, and most bagged at least 7 from 9. The two leaders registered 8 from 9 results, which left MoSHBODS_Marg still one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg, and now on 117 from 162 (72%). ENS_Linear, who was one of the Tipsters to bag all 9, snagged 3rd place in so doing and is now on 115 from 162 (71%) and just two tips off the lead.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 8.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 110.3 from 162 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 30 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 19 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 9 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 69 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 14 points
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 9 points
(Note that the other forecasts have also changed because the previous ones were using older player ratings)
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the Round 19 games
On balance, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly lower Totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the notable exception of the (likely to be rain-affected) Port Adelaide v Collingwood game..
Read MoreSix of this week’s games pit teams no more than five ladder positions apart. We have:
Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 1.5 and 2.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 13.5
Two games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 18.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by eight ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 and 65.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by 11 ladder positions and where the line is 28.5
On average, the opposing teams are separated by just 4.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.75.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.2 points per game, which is up just slightly on the Round 18 average, and down by 1.5 points on the all-time average for Round 19s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.
Read MoreThere were movements at the top of both Systems this week, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and Colligwood.
The big movers for the week on MoSSBODS were Collingwood and Essendon (both down 2), and Gold Coast and GWS (both up 2). On MoSHBODS they were, more dramatically, Port Adelaide (down 4), Essendon (down 2), Geelong (up 3), and GWS (up 2).
In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.
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