2023 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders
/Across all nine games the MoS twins are forecasting a very similar average Total to the bookmakers this week, but there are some large differences for individual games.
Read More2023 - Round 20 : And Then There Were Five
/Only three of Round 20 contests involve teams that are fewer than 6 spots apart on the competition ladder. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 0.5 and 1.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 9.5
Three games where the teams are separated by between six and eight ladder positions and where the lines are between 13.5 and 42.5 points
Three games where the teams are separated by 10 or 11 ladder positions and where the lines are between 2.5 and 22.5 points
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.86.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 14.1 points per game, which is down by about 4 points on the Round 19 average, and down by over 7 points on the all-time average for Round 20s. It moves the all-Season average to 18.1 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/On MoSSBODS this week, the only movements at the top were Geelong moving into 3rd to supplant Melbourne, who fell to 5th. Brisbane Lions retained top spot ahead of Port Adelaide. On MoSHBODS, however, Geelong climbed into top spot, Brisbane Lions fell to 2nd, Collingwood retained 3rd, and Port Adelaide climbed two spots to take 4th.
Only three team moved by more than a single spot on MoSSBODS (Geelong up 2, Melbourne down 2, and Gold Coast down 3) and only three did the same on MoSHBODS (Port Adelaide and GWS up 2 spots, and Melbourne down 2 spots).
In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 19 Results - The Edges Are Done, and Most of the Sky
/Whilst the jigsaw of which teams feature in the 2023 Grand Final remains far from completed, I think we made significant progress this weekend, which was one in which the Head-to-Head Tipsters fared pretty well.
In fact, four of them tipped the card, and most bagged at least 7 from 9. The two leaders registered 8 from 9 results, which left MoSHBODS_Marg still one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg, and now on 117 from 162 (72%). ENS_Linear, who was one of the Tipsters to bag all 9, snagged 3rd place in so doing and is now on 115 from 162 (71%) and just two tips off the lead.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 8.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 110.3 from 162 (68%).
Read More2023 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 30 points
UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 19 points
UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 9 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 69 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 14 points
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 9 points
(Note that the other forecasts have also changed because the previous ones were using older player ratings)
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the Round 19 games
2023 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders
/On balance, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly lower Totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the notable exception of the (likely to be rain-affected) Port Adelaide v Collingwood game..
Read More2023 - Round 19 : The Final Half-Dozen
/Six of this week’s games pit teams no more than five ladder positions apart. We have:
Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 1.5 and 2.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 13.5
Two games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 18.5 points
Two games where the teams are separated by eight ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 and 65.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by 11 ladder positions and where the line is 28.5
On average, the opposing teams are separated by just 4.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.75.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.2 points per game, which is up just slightly on the Round 18 average, and down by 1.5 points on the all-time average for Round 19s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/There were movements at the top of both Systems this week, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and Colligwood.
The big movers for the week on MoSSBODS were Collingwood and Essendon (both down 2), and Gold Coast and GWS (both up 2). On MoSHBODS they were, more dramatically, Port Adelaide (down 4), Essendon (down 2), Geelong (up 3), and GWS (up 2).
In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 18 Results - A Slight Swerve
/Some more solid head-to-head tipping from the MoS trio saw them retain the Top 3 spots on the Leaderboard, with MoSHBODS_Marg doing best in scoring 8 from 9 to set up a one tip lead over MoSHPlay_Marg, and a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg. First and seventh are now separated by five tips.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 102.2 from 153 (67%).
Read More2023 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM
Hawks by 4 goals, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM
It’s the Cats by 14 points and the Crows by 17 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM
It’s the Blues by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
It’s the Lions by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the rest of Round 18
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 10 points
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay currently has it as the Swans by 14 points
2023 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders
/For the most part, there’s broad agreement across the forecasters this week, though not so much that there’s no potential value in any of the games, according to MoSSBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 18 : Consequential
/Four of this week’s games pit teams no more than three ladder positions apart. We have:
Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 4.5 and 16.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the line is 20.5
Four games where the teams are separated by between six and nine ladder positions and where the lines are between 5.5 and 40.5 points
One game where the teams are separated by 13 ladder positions and where the line is 38.5
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.61.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 17.5 points per game, which is down by over eight points on the Round 17 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 18s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/The Top 2 teams on both Systems remained unchanged this week, with Port Adelaide leading Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and Brisbane Lions leading Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS. On both Systems, however, Port Adelaide lost Rating Points and Brisbane Lions gained them.
The big movers for the week were Carlton (up 3 places on both Systems), Sydney and Fremantle (both down 2 places on MoSSBODS), and Adelaide (down 2 places on MoSHBODS).
In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 17 Results - Course Corrected
/MoSHPlay_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg tipped the card this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg tipped 8 from 9, which left the MoSH pairing tied for 1st on 101 from 144 (70%) and MoSSBODS_Marg in 3rd just a single tip further back. Currently, just 4 tips separate 1st from 7th.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 95.7 from 144 (66%).
Read More2023 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM
It’s Cats by 46 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 4:30PM
MoSHPlay ends at GWS by 35 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 1:45PM
MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 82 points
UPDATE FRIDAY 11:30PM
Some updated MoSHPlay views on the Sunday games, now that the interchanges and emergencies have been delineated.
UPDATE FRIDAY 1AM
MoSHPlay’s initial views on the rest of Round 17.
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:30PM
MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 4 points
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay’s initial view of the Thursday night game is Richmond by 3 points
2023 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, MoSSBODS is foreseeing a lower scoring round than the three other forecasters, except in a few likely-to-be-rain-affected contests..
Read More2023 - Round 17 : A Few Mismatches
/Two-thirds of this week’s games pit teams no more than six ladder positions apart. We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 2.5 and 14.5
Two games where the teams are separated by two or three ladder positions and where the lines are 7.5 and 8.5
Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 11.5 and 27.5
Two games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 to 48.5
One game where the teams are separated by 15 ladder positions and where the line is an average-boosting 80.5
On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.93.
The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 25.7 points per game, which is up by over four-and-a-half points on the Round 16 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 17s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.4 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/Port Adelaide, despite their after-the-siren win, didn’t impress the MoS twins this week, allowing Brisbane Lions to close the gap to them on MoSSBODS and move in front of them on MoSHBODS.
In other moves, Melbourne retained 3rd on both Systems, and Collingwood climbed into 4th, rising 3 spots on MoSSBODS, and 2 spots on MoSHBODS.
In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 12 changed places on MoSHBODS.
Read More2023 - Round 16 Results - Giving a Little Back
/With the draw giving everyone a free half-tip, it was six-and-a-halfs and seven-and-a-halfs all round this week (except for Home Sweet Home) but with MoSHPlay_Marg the only one of the MoS trio bagging the seven-and-a-half, we now have a three-way tie at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard involving all three of them.
They are on 92 from 135 (68%) and a single tip ahead of ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.8 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 88.1 from 135 (65%).
Read More2023 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY
For the last game of the round, MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 53 points
UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 10 points
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 17 points
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
Port Adelaide by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY
Crows by 41 and Dogs by 17 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
It’s the Swans by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remainder of Round 16
UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 19 points
UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay is currently forecasting a 16 point Lions win.
