2023 - Round 19 Results - The Edges Are Done, and Most of the Sky

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Whilst the jigsaw of which teams feature in the 2023 Grand Final remains far from completed, I think we made significant progress this weekend, which was one in which the Head-to-Head Tipsters fared pretty well.

In fact, four of them tipped the card, and most bagged at least 7 from 9. The two leaders registered 8 from 9 results, which left MoSHBODS_Marg still one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg, and now on 117 from 162 (72%). ENS_Linear, who was one of the Tipsters to bag all 9, snagged 3rd place in so doing and is now on 115 from 162 (71%) and just two tips off the lead.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 8.1 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 110.3 from 162 (68%).

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2023 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 30 points


UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 19 points

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 9 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 69 points


UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 14 points

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 9 points

(Note that the other forecasts have also changed because the previous ones were using older player ratings)

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the Round 19 games

2023 - Round 19 : The Final Half-Dozen

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Six of this week’s games pit teams no more than five ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 1.5 and 2.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the line is 13.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four or five ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 18.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by eight ladder positions and where the lines are 18.5 and 65.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by 11 ladder positions and where the line is 28.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by just 4.6 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.75.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.2 points per game, which is up just slightly on the Round 18 average, and down by 1.5 points on the all-time average for Round 19s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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There were movements at the top of both Systems this week, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and Colligwood.

The big movers for the week on MoSSBODS were Collingwood and Essendon (both down 2), and Gold Coast and GWS (both up 2). On MoSHBODS they were, more dramatically, Port Adelaide (down 4), Essendon (down 2), Geelong (up 3), and GWS (up 2).

In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 18 Results - A Slight Swerve

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Some more solid head-to-head tipping from the MoS trio saw them retain the Top 3 spots on the Leaderboard, with MoSHBODS_Marg doing best in scoring 8 from 9 to set up a one tip lead over MoSHPlay_Marg, and a two tip lead over MoSSBODS_Marg. First and seventh are now separated by five tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 102.2 from 153 (67%).

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2023 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Hawks by 4 goals, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

It’s the Cats by 14 points and the Crows by 17 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM

It’s the Blues by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

It’s the Lions by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the rest of Round 18

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 10 points

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay currently has it as the Swans by 14 points

2023 - Round 18 : Consequential

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Four of this week’s games pit teams no more than three ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are between 4.5 and 16.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the line is 20.5

  • Four games where the teams are separated by between six and nine ladder positions and where the lines are between 5.5 and 40.5 points

  • One game where the teams are separated by 13 ladder positions and where the line is 38.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.61.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 17.5 points per game, which is down by over eight points on the Round 17 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 18s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.3 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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The Top 2 teams on both Systems remained unchanged this week, with Port Adelaide leading Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and Brisbane Lions leading Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS. On both Systems, however, Port Adelaide lost Rating Points and Brisbane Lions gained them.

The big movers for the week were Carlton (up 3 places on both Systems), Sydney and Fremantle (both down 2 places on MoSSBODS), and Adelaide (down 2 places on MoSHBODS).

In total, eight teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and seven changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

It’s Cats by 46 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at GWS by 35 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:45PM

MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 82 points

UPDATE FRIDAY 11:30PM

Some updated MoSHPlay views on the Sunday games, now that the interchanges and emergencies have been delineated.

UPDATE FRIDAY 1AM

MoSHPlay’s initial views on the rest of Round 17.

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 4 points

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay’s initial view of the Thursday night game is Richmond by 3 points

2023 - Round 17 : A Few Mismatches

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Two-thirds of this week’s games pit teams no more than six ladder positions apart. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the lines are 2.5 and 14.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two or three ladder positions and where the lines are 7.5 and 8.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by five or six ladder positions and where the lines are 11.5 and 27.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by eight or 10 ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 to 48.5

  • One game where the teams are separated by 15 ladder positions and where the line is an average-boosting 80.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 5.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.93.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 25.7 points per game, which is up by over four-and-a-half points on the Round 16 average, and by over 5 points on the all-time average for Round 17s. It leaves the all-Season average at 18.4 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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Port Adelaide, despite their after-the-siren win, didn’t impress the MoS twins this week, allowing Brisbane Lions to close the gap to them on MoSSBODS and move in front of them on MoSHBODS.

In other moves, Melbourne retained 3rd on both Systems, and Collingwood climbed into 4th, rising 3 spots on MoSSBODS, and 2 spots on MoSHBODS.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 12 changed places on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 16 Results - Giving a Little Back

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With the draw giving everyone a free half-tip, it was six-and-a-halfs and seven-and-a-halfs all round this week (except for Home Sweet Home) but with MoSHPlay_Marg the only one of the MoS trio bagging the seven-and-a-half, we now have a three-way tie at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard involving all three of them.

They are on 92 from 135 (68%) and a single tip ahead of ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.8 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 88.1 from 135 (65%).

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2023 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

For the last game of the round, MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 53 points

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 10 points

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 17 points

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Port Adelaide by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

Crows by 41 and Dogs by 17 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

It’s the Swans by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remainder of Round 16

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 19 points

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay is currently forecasting a 16 point Lions win.

2023 - Round 16 : Normal Service Resumed

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This week’s full breakfast can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • One game where the teams are separated by one ladder position and where the line is 14.5

  • Three game where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines range from 1.5 to 15.5

  • Three games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines range from 10.5 to 41.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by either 10 or 13 ladder positions and where the lines range from 25.5 to 51.5

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a sizeable 7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.92.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 21.1 points per game, which is up by over two-and-a-half points on the Round 15 average, but down by about 2 points on the all-time average for Round 16s. It leaves the all-Season average at just under 18 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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There were yet more big moves on the MoS Rating Systems this week, but no changes in the agreed Top and Bottom 3, which remain Power, Dees, and Lions for the apex, and Hawks, Roos, and Eagles fro the nadir.

The biggest movers on MoSSBODS were Sydney (up 5 into 4th), Gold Coast (up 3 into 8th), and Collingwood (down 3 into 7th, despite winning), and on MoSHBODS was Sydney (up 5 into 5th). No other teams moved by more than 2 places on either System. In total, nine teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 10 changed places on MoSHBODS.

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