2023 - Round 15 : A Second Half-Dozen

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This week’s fare can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • One game where the teams are separated by one ladder positions and where the line is 3.5

  • One game where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the line is 58.5

  • Three games where the teams are separated by between five and seven ladder positions and where the lines range from 3.5 to 24.5

(Note that I’m using a competition ladder that uses match ratio to adjust for byes)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 4.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.66.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 18.5\7 points per game, which is up by almost 6 points on the Round 14 average, but down by about 2 points on the all-time average for Round 15s. It leaves the all-Season average at just under 18 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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There was again quite the shakeup at the top of the Leaderboard for both Systems, but moreso for MoSHBODS, which ended with both Systems agreeing about the order for the six highest-rated teams. That includes Port Adelaide in 1st, Melbourne in 2nd, and Brisbane Lions in 3rd.

After a similar rethinking in relation to the other end of the Leaderboard, the two Systems now also agree about the ordering of the five lowest-ranked teams.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 13 changed places on MoSHBODS with the lone big mover on MoSSBODS being Richmond, up three spots into 8th. On MoSHBODS, Carlton rose four spots to 9th, and St Kilda fell four spots to 12th. No other teams moved by more than two spots on either System.

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2023 - Round 14 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 31 points.

UPDATE 1PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Blues by 14 points.


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Tigers by 7 points.

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at GWS by 16 points.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Brisbane Lions by 23 points.

UPDATE 8:30PM THURSDAY

A first look from MoSHPlay at the remainder of the round, and it doesn’t like what it sees in the Fremantle matchup against the Giants.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 13 points

UPDATE 11PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay has the Thursday game as Port Adelaide by 14 points

2023 - Round 14 : Happy Half-Dozen

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This even more shortened week can be neatly described using ladder positions and expected margins as follows:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 1.5 and 3.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by seven ladder positions and where the lines are 4.5 and 10.5

  • Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 28.5 and 30.5

(Note that I’m using a competition ladder that uses match ratio to adjust for byes)

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 6.7 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.82.

The overall average bookmaker expected margin is 12.7 points per game, which is down by over 4 points on the Round 13 average, and by over 10 points on the all-time average for Round 14s. It moves the all-Season average to 17.7 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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There was considerable movement at the top of both Systems’ Leaderboards this week, which ended with MoSSBODS having a Top 3 of Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Geelong.

In total, nine teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 11 changed places on MoSHBODS with the lone big mover on MoSSBODS being Fremantle, down three spots into 13th. On MoSHBODS there was carnage, and we had Adelaide up six spots, Port Adelaide and Richmond up three spots, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood and Sydney all down three spots, and Carlton and Fremantle down four spots.

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2023 - Round 13 Results - Resurgent MoSHPlay

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Four of the eight bookmakers’ early market favourites won this week, but some contrarian tips by MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg resulted in their scoring only two and surrendering their lead over RSMP_Simple. All three of them are now tied on 74.5 from 114 (65%) and are just one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, MoSHPlay_Marg, and RSMP_Weighted.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 3.6 from 8, which took the all-season figure to 71.6 from 114 (63%).

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2023 - Round 13 : MoSHPlay

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Update 2:45PM MONDAY

MoSHPlay has landed at Dees by 1 point

Update 11:30PM SUNDAY

Pies by a point, according to MoSHPlay


Update 6:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay

Update 6:45PM SATURDAY

Richmond by 7 points, according to MoSHPlay

Update 3:45PM SATURDAY

Adelaide by 10 goals, according to MoSHPlay


Update 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 14 points

Update 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Port by 1 point

Update 7PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on all but the final game of the round

Update 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 9 points


Update 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial view of the Thursday night game is Swans by 8 points

2023 - Round 13 : Yet More Action

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There are a large number of mismatches this week, if ladder position is anything to go by. We have:

  • Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position

  • Five games where they’re separated by between six and nine spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 16 spots

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.88.

That average bookmaker expected margin is, unsurprisingly, 23.6 points per game, which is up by over 8 points on the Round 10 average, and roughyl equal to the all-time average for Round 11s. It drives the all-Season average up to 17.6 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 12

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There is still confusion and contention amongst and between the twins, with Port Adelaide retaining top spot this week on MoSSBODS, and Brisbane Lions doing the same on MoSHBODS.

Some movement did occur in the respective Top 5s, however, with Melbourne and Collingwood relegating Geelong to 5th on MoSSBODS, and Melbourne similarly relegating Geelong but only to 4th on MoSHBODS as neither System felt that the Cats did enough against the Dogs to retain their previous rating.

In total, 11 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big movers being Gold Coast, who rose four spots on MoSSBODS into 9th, and three spots on MoSHBODS into 11th. No other team moved by more than two spots on MoSSBODS, but MoSHBODS also saw Essendon fall by three spots to 14th, and Adelaide fall by four spots to 13th.

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2023 - Round 12 Results - Margins Easy, Winners Harder

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Only four of the seven bookmakers’ favourites won this week, which meant that the fives from MoSHBODS_Marg, MoSHBODS_Marg, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Simple was enough to move them all a tip further ahead of Bookie Knows Best. The MoS twins, now on 72.5 from 106 (68%), continue to lead ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple by two tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 4.7 from 7, which took the all-season figure to 68.1 from 106 (64%).

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2023 - Round 12 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:00PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dons by 34 points


UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

It’s the Tigers by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Dogs by 6 points and Crows by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

Pies by 63 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

Melbourne by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on Round 12

2023 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders

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Apologies that this post is a little late this week but I have been travelling on business (and. frankly, if you’ve been waiting to see the models’ views before making your own bets, you’ve not been following along carefully enough).

Overall across this truncated round, the MoS twins have roughly the same expectations about likely average total scoring in Round 12, although there is, again, some variability of opinion about individual games.

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2023 - Round 12 : Byes For Now

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This week is the first of the bye rounds and so offers only seven games for the forecasters to consider.

Amongst those seven we have:

  • Only one game where the teams are separated by just one ladder position

  • Two games where they’re separated by either four or five spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly 9 spots

  • Two game where they’re separated by either 14 or 17 spots

On average, the opposing teams are separated by a whopping 8.4 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.97.

That average bookmaker expected margin is, as it was last week, 23.6 points per game, which is up by about two point on the all-time average for Round 12s. It drives the all-Season average up to 18 points per game.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 11

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Geelong has finally surrendered top spot on both Systems, but to Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS and to Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.

In fact, whilst the Top 5 teams are the same on both Systems, only Geelong, now in 3rd, is in the same place on both.

In total, 12 teams changed places on MoSSBODS, and 9 changed places on MoSHBODS with the big mover being St Kilda, who fell three spots on MoSHBODS into 10th. No other team moved by more than two spots on either System.

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2023 - Round 11 Results - Good Round for the Dogs (but not The Dogs)

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Only three of the bookmakers’ favourites won this week, which meant that MoSSBODS_Marg’s 4 from 9 was good enough to give it a share of the lead with MoSHBODS_Marg, both of them now on 67.5 from 99 (68%).

They are both two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 3.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 63.4 from 99 (64%).

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2023 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4:40PM

Lions by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Tigers by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 11:45AM

A quick MoSHPlay update for today’s games as I’m unlikely to be able to post once the finals teams are announced for at least some of the games.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 16 points and Dons by 38 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:15PM

MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 37 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

Saints by 19 points and Dees by 28 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about Round 11