2023 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, the MoS twins’ Totals forecasts are quite similar to the bookmakers’ this week, but there is some disagreement at the individual game level.
Read More2023 - Round 8 : Measured
/This week’s fare includes two games with quite large handicaps that are between teams separated by only one or two ladder positions:
Richmond 16th vs West Coast 18th (Richmond -38.5)
Geelong 7th vs Adelaide 8th (Geelong -31.5)
For the remaining games, we have:
Two more games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder (where the starts are 2.5 and 10.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots (where the start is 17.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots (where the start is 14.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly ten spots (where the start is 16.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots (where the start is 17.5 points)
One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots (where the start is 37.5 points)
On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by just over 5 ladder spots.
The week’s average bookmaker expected margin is 20.7 points per game, which is down by half a goal on the Round 7 average, and just over a point lower than the all-time average for Round 8s. It drives the all-Season average up to 16.4 points per game.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/The Top 3 spots on both Systems remained unchanged this week, despite the Pies shedding Rating Points on both. We still have, therefore, Cats, Pies, and Dees as the Top 3 - as well as, now, the Lions in 4th.
Read More2023 - Round 7 Results - A Little Regression
/The MoS trio have clung onto the Top 3 spots in two of the three competitions this week, slipping only via MoSHBODS_Marg on margin prediction.
On head-to-head tipping, six of the nine early favourites were successful, and none of the Tipsters did better than six from nine. MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg were two of the high scorers, which assured their continued occupancy of 1st and 2nd places on the Leaderboard. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only five from nine, which meant it was caught from Bookie Knows Best in equal 3rd.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.6 from 9 and, for the season, it now stands at 39.4 from 63 (63%).
Read More2023 - Round 7 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has finished with the Crows winning by 5 points. Seems brave …
UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY
It’s the Tigers by 20 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
It’s the Cats, but only by 5 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 51 and Blues by 32 points
UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY
Next we have the Dogs by 18 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY
And now it’s the Swans by 16 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY
It’s the Lions by 34 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Saints by 14 points
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay’s opening thoughts on Round 7
2023 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders
/As is quickly becoming customer, the twins have again come in above the bookmakers on expected Totals, but this week by about a full goal per game.
Read More2023 - Round 7 : Testing the Order
/I’ve been sensing that this might be one of the most competitive seasons in recent times and this week will test that observation as teams from far flung rungs of the competition ladder face one another.
We have:
Two games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder
One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots
Two games where they’re separated by exactly seven spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots
On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by almost 6 ladder spots. That’s quite large.
The gaps in quality are also reflected in the week’s average bookmaker expected margin of 23.8 points per game, which is up by almost a full goal on the Round 6 average, and which is almost 3 points higher than the all-time average for Round 7s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 16 points per game.
The week’s average includes four games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, four games expected to be won by between 4 and 6 goals, and one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/Geelong slipped into top spot on both Systems this week, relegating Collingwood to 2nd, despite their win over Essendon. Melbourne sit 3rd on both Systems.
Read More2023 - Round 6 Results - Green MoS Everywhere
/For the first time in a long time, it’s the MoS trio in some order atop all three Leaderboards.
On head-to-head tipping MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg bagged 8 from 9, which saw them end the round in 1st and 2nd, respectively, while MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the card to move into outright 3rd.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7 from 9. For the season, it now stands at 33.8 from 54 (63%).
Read More2023 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE TUESDAY 2:45PM
It’s a very uncontroversial Pies by 16 points from MoSHPlay
UPDATE MONDAY 6:45PM
It’s the Dees by 17 points tonight and, pending final teams, the Pies by 13 points tomorrow, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM
The Suns by 5 goals, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM
MoSHPlay ends up at the Saints by 5 points
UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM
It’s the Crows by 23 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM
Cats by 16 points is MoSHPlay’s final offer
UPDATE SATURDAY 1:00PM
MoSHPlay ends at Port Adelaide by 46 points
UPDATE FRIDAY 11:45PM
Some thoughts on the rest of Round 6 from MoSHPlay
UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 2 points
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay has gone contrarian and tipped the Dogs by 3 points (pending the final teams)
2023 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders
/The twins have again come in a little above the bookmakers on expected Totals, but only by about a half a goal per game.
Read More2023 - Round 6 : Home For Sure
/We at least enter this week firm in the knowledge of which will be the round’s home teams.
We also enter it with an overall average bookmaker expected margin of 17.9 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.6, and quite a bit little lower than the all-time average for Round 6s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 14.5 points per game.
The week’s average includes five games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, three games expected to be won by between 3 and 4 goals, and just one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.
If we look at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:
One game where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder
Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots
To the tips …
Read More2023 - Team Ratings After Round 5
/MoSSBODS left its Top 5 teams unchanced this week, despite the fact that four of them shed Rating Points, while MoSHBODS re-ranked all but five of the teams.
In the end, MoSSBODS had a Top 3 of Collingwood, Geelong, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS had a Top 3 of Collingwood, Geelong, and Sydney.
Read More2023 - Round 5 Results - Green Shoots Again
/Seven early bookmaker favourites won this week, though Home Sweet Home’s confusion was enough to drive the all-Tipster average a little lower than that. It came in at 6.9 from 9, with the MoS trio all recording top scores of 8 from 9. Only Consult The Ladder’s 6 from 9, and Home Sweet Home’s 4 from 9 fell below the bookmaker’s mark.
MoSHBODS_Marg moved to 30.5 from 45 (68%) and remains one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, and a further two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.
The all-Tipster average now stands at 26.8 from 45 (60%).
Read More2023 - Round 5 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 4:15PM
MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 11 points
UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM
GWS by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM
MoSHPlay has it as the Cats by 52 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 7:15PM
Port Adelaide by 15 points now, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30PM
Melbourne by 3 goals, according to MoSHPlay
UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM
MoSHPlay’s has it as Swans by 2 points
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay’s current thoughts on the rest of Round 5
UPDATE WEDNESDAY
It’s the home team, Adelaide, by 2 points, according to MoSHPlay for now
2023 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders
/This week sees the weather-ignorant MoS twins forecasting higher totals than the bookmakers in almost every game, but also sees some relatively high levels of disagreement between the two bookmakers themselves. I suspect I might have dipped into those markets just after the TAB had made a full adjustment for the forecast inclement weather, and before Sportsbet had fully done likewise.
Read More2023 - Round 5 : Still Looking for Signal - UPDATE
/I don’t usually allow any of the MoS models two proverbial bites at the cherry, but when the League unexpectedly announces just two days before a round commences that it has just held coin tosses to (re)determine home team status (yes, seriously), I think that counts as exigent circumstances.
Read More2023 - Round 5 : Still Looking for Signal
/This week, the overall average bookmaker expected margin has come in at 17.6 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.9, and a little lower than the all-time average for Round 5s.
That average includes six games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and three games expected to be won by more than 4 goals, and it drives the all-Season average up to just under 14 points per game.
Interestingly, if we look, instead, at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:
Three games where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder
Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots
2023 - Team Ratings After Round 4
/Another round of substantial reordering left Collingwood 1st on both Systems, but saw Geelong climb back into 2nd on MoSSBODS, and 3rd on MoSHBODS. Melbourne are now 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS, while Sydney are 4th on both Systems.
Read More2023 - Round 4 Results - Routine
/There were six bookmaker favourites that won this week, though enough MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters ignored favouritism that we ended up with a 5.4 from 9 all-Tipster average.
Home Sweet Home did enough, however, to retain top spot, and is now on 23.5 from 36 (65%), but just one tip ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 22,5 (63%) and a further tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 21.5 (60%).
The all-Tipster average now stands at 19.9 from 36 (55%).
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