2023 - Round 7 : Testing the Order

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I’ve been sensing that this might be one of the most competitive seasons in recent times and this week will test that observation as teams from far flung rungs of the competition ladder face one another.

We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two spots on the ladder

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots

  • Two games where they’re separated by exactly seven spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 12 spots

On average, then, the opposing teams are separated by almost 6 ladder spots. That’s quite large.

The gaps in quality are also reflected in the week’s average bookmaker expected margin of 23.8 points per game, which is up by almost a full goal on the Round 6 average, and which is almost 3 points higher than the all-time average for Round 7s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 16 points per game.

The week’s average includes four games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, four games expected to be won by between 4 and 6 goals, and one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.

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2023 - Round 6 Results - Green MoS Everywhere

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For the first time in a long time, it’s the MoS trio in some order atop all three Leaderboards.

On head-to-head tipping MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg bagged 8 from 9, which saw them end the round in 1st and 2nd, respectively, while MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the card to move into outright 3rd.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 7 from 9. For the season, it now stands at 33.8 from 54 (63%).

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2023 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE TUESDAY 2:45PM

It’s a very uncontroversial Pies by 16 points from MoSHPlay


UPDATE MONDAY 6:45PM

It’s the Dees by 17 points tonight and, pending final teams, the Pies by 13 points tomorrow, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

The Suns by 5 goals, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM

MoSHPlay ends up at the Saints by 5 points

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

It’s the Crows by 23 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

Cats by 16 points is MoSHPlay’s final offer

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:00PM

MoSHPlay ends at Port Adelaide by 46 points

UPDATE FRIDAY 11:45PM

Some thoughts on the rest of Round 6 from MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 2 points

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay has gone contrarian and tipped the Dogs by 3 points (pending the final teams)

2023 - Round 6 : Home For Sure

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We at least enter this week firm in the knowledge of which will be the round’s home teams.

We also enter it with an overall average bookmaker expected margin of 17.9 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.6, and quite a bit little lower than the all-time average for Round 6s. It drives the all-Season average up to just under 14.5 points per game.

The week’s average includes five games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, three games expected to be won by between 3 and 4 goals, and just one expected to be won by about 7-and-a-half goals.

If we look at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:

  • One game where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly eight spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly nine spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly 11 spots

To the tips …

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2023 - Round 5 Results - Green Shoots Again

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Seven early bookmaker favourites won this week, though Home Sweet Home’s confusion was enough to drive the all-Tipster average a little lower than that. It came in at 6.9 from 9, with the MoS trio all recording top scores of 8 from 9. Only Consult The Ladder’s 6 from 9, and Home Sweet Home’s 4 from 9 fell below the bookmaker’s mark.

MoSHBODS_Marg moved to 30.5 from 45 (68%) and remains one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, and a further two tips ahead of Bookie Knows Best.

The all-Tipster average now stands at 26.8 from 45 (60%).

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2023 - Round 5 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4:15PM

MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 11 points

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM

GWS by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay has it as the Cats by 52 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 7:15PM

Port Adelaide by 15 points now, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30PM

Melbourne by 3 goals, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM

MoSHPlay’s has it as Swans by 2 points

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay’s current thoughts on the rest of Round 5


UPDATE WEDNESDAY

It’s the home team, Adelaide, by 2 points, according to MoSHPlay for now

2023 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders

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This week sees the weather-ignorant MoS twins forecasting higher totals than the bookmakers in almost every game, but also sees some relatively high levels of disagreement between the two bookmakers themselves. I suspect I might have dipped into those markets just after the TAB had made a full adjustment for the forecast inclement weather, and before Sportsbet had fully done likewise.

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2023 - Round 5 : Still Looking for Signal

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This week, the overall average bookmaker expected margin has come in at 17.6 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.9, and a little lower than the all-time average for Round 5s.

That average includes six games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and three games expected to be won by more than 4 goals, and it drives the all-Season average up to just under 14 points per game.

Interestingly, if we look, instead, at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots

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2023 - Round 4 Results - Routine

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There were six bookmaker favourites that won this week, though enough MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters ignored favouritism that we ended up with a 5.4 from 9 all-Tipster average.

Home Sweet Home did enough, however, to retain top spot, and is now on 23.5 from 36 (65%), but just one tip ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 22,5 (63%) and a further tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 21.5 (60%).

The all-Tipster average now stands at 19.9 from 36 (55%).

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2023 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE MONDAY 2:45PM

Cats by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 4:45PM

It’s Melbourne by 45 points, according to MoSHPlay - a startling 19 point difference from MoSHBODS

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s thoughts on the evening matches

UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 11 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

Crows by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 3:45PM

Blues by 32, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the remainder of the games in Round 4.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Pies by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay

2023 - Round 4 : We Continue

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In stark contrast with last week, according to the TAB Bookmaker we can expect single digit victory margins in only two games this week, and margins of under 3 goals in just five games.

In the remaining games, expected margins range from about three-and-a-half to just under seven-goals.

The overall average expected margin is just under 18 points per game, which is almost three points higher than the average for the same Round in 2022, but just under the historical average for the Round.

That figure of 17.9 points per game drives the all-Season average up to just under 13 points per game, which is virtually identical to last year’s average through Round 3.

Whilst the average expected margin has been just under 13 points per game so far in 2023, the average actual margin has been 29.2 points per game.

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2023 - Round 3 Results - Near Perfect

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Again this week, more home teams than opening market favourites were successful, which leaves the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard in the very unusual position of having Home Sweet Home two tips clear of the pack on 18.5 from 27 (69%). MoSHBODS_Marg currently sits in 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Marg in 3rd. MoSHPlay_Marg sits second-last on the table, ahead only of Consult The Ladder.

The all-Tipster average, despite just five favourites winning, was 5.6 from 9, leaving the average Tipster with a percentage of just under 54.

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2023 - Round 3 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:45PM SUNDAY

In the last game of an interesting round, MoSHPlay is tipping Fremantle by 20 points.


UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes as the lone contrarian Margin Predictor with the Swans winning by 2 points.

UPDATE 1:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 17 points.


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Here’s MoSHPlay’s final tips for tonight’s games (we missed the late LDU out today, which would have moved the forecast to Hawks by 16 points).


UPDATE 10:30PM THURSDAY

Here’s MoSHPlay’s first look at the rest of the round, making assumptions about what the final squads of 23 will be.

UPDATE 6:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 6 points.

UPDATE 4PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay has tonight’s game as a 7-point Dogs victory.