This week sees the weather-ignorant MoS twins forecasting higher totals than the bookmakers in almost every game, but also sees some relatively high levels of disagreement between the two bookmakers themselves. I suspect I might have dipped into those markets just after the TAB had made a full adjustment for the forecast inclement weather, and before Sportsbet had fully done likewise.
Read MoreI don’t usually allow any of the MoS models two proverbial bites at the cherry, but when the League unexpectedly announces just two days before a round commences that it has just held coin tosses to (re)determine home team status (yes, seriously), I think that counts as exigent circumstances.
Read MoreThis week, the overall average bookmaker expected margin has come in at 17.6 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.9, and a little lower than the all-time average for Round 5s.
That average includes six games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and three games expected to be won by more than 4 goals, and it drives the all-Season average up to just under 14 points per game.
Interestingly, if we look, instead, at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:
Three games where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder
Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots
One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots
Another round of substantial reordering left Collingwood 1st on both Systems, but saw Geelong climb back into 2nd on MoSSBODS, and 3rd on MoSHBODS. Melbourne are now 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS, while Sydney are 4th on both Systems.
Read MoreThere were six bookmaker favourites that won this week, though enough MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters ignored favouritism that we ended up with a 5.4 from 9 all-Tipster average.
Home Sweet Home did enough, however, to retain top spot, and is now on 23.5 from 36 (65%), but just one tip ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 22,5 (63%) and a further tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 21.5 (60%).
The all-Tipster average now stands at 19.9 from 36 (55%).
Read MoreCats by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay
It’s Melbourne by 45 points, according to MoSHPlay - a startling 19 point difference from MoSHBODS
Here are MoSHPlay’s thoughts on the evening matches
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 11 points
Crows by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay
Blues by 32, according to MoSHPlay
Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the remainder of the games in Round 4.
Pies by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay
It’s been hard to get a fix on the trend for Total scores this season after the first round gave us 174 points per game, the second 170.2, and the third just 155.6 points per game.
That’s contributed to some of the disagreement this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers and resulted in a mean absolute difference of about 7 points per game.
Read MoreIn stark contrast with last week, according to the TAB Bookmaker we can expect single digit victory margins in only two games this week, and margins of under 3 goals in just five games.
In the remaining games, expected margins range from about three-and-a-half to just under seven-goals.
The overall average expected margin is just under 18 points per game, which is almost three points higher than the average for the same Round in 2022, but just under the historical average for the Round.
That figure of 17.9 points per game drives the all-Season average up to just under 13 points per game, which is virtually identical to last year’s average through Round 3.
Whilst the average expected margin has been just under 13 points per game so far in 2023, the average actual margin has been 29.2 points per game.
Read MoreStill quite a bit of rating movement in both Systems as they continue to recalibrate for the new season and as underdogs continue to be victorious.
Collingwood remains 1st on both Systems, however, now ahead of Melbourne and Sydney. The Cats have dropped to 5th on MoSSBODS, and 4th on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreAgain this week, more home teams than opening market favourites were successful, which leaves the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard in the very unusual position of having Home Sweet Home two tips clear of the pack on 18.5 from 27 (69%). MoSHBODS_Marg currently sits in 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Marg in 3rd. MoSHPlay_Marg sits second-last on the table, ahead only of Consult The Ladder.
The all-Tipster average, despite just five favourites winning, was 5.6 from 9, leaving the average Tipster with a percentage of just under 54.
Read MoreIn the last game of an interesting round, MoSHPlay is tipping Fremantle by 20 points.
MoSHPlay finishes as the lone contrarian Margin Predictor with the Swans winning by 2 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 17 points.
Here’s MoSHPlay’s final tips for tonight’s games (we missed the late LDU out today, which would have moved the forecast to Hawks by 16 points).
Here’s MoSHPlay’s first look at the rest of the round, making assumptions about what the final squads of 23 will be.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 6 points.
MoSHPlay has tonight’s game as a 7-point Dogs victory.
A little more disagreement this week between the twins and the bookmakers at the individual game level, though broad agreement once again at the aggregate level.
Read MoreAccording to the TAB Bookmaker, no game this week is expected to be won by more than 3 goals, and five of them are expected to won by less than 2 goals.
Five home teams and four away teams are currently favourites, which is exactly the same mix as we saw in the opening markets in Round 1 and in Round 2.
The overall average expected margin is just 11.3 points per game, which is the lowest for a Round 3 on record and over a goal less than the average for the Round.
That figure drives the all-Season average down to just 11 points per game, which is a full point per game below last year’s average through Round 3, and is also a record across the period we are looking at.
Read MoreAt the heart of any Elo-based system is the parameter k, which determines how responsive the system is to a single result, and it’s always a worry early in the season how well that k has been chosen.
This week, that k has seen the Pies rocket to top spot on both MoS Systems, ahead of the Cats and the Swans in that order on MoSSBODS, and the Swans and the Cats in that order on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSix home teams, but only four favourites, were successful in Round 2, which left the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard with a very unexpected leader in Home Sweet Home. It is now two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and MoSHBODS_Marg.
The all-Tipster average was just 4.4 from 9, down a shade on last week’s 4.5 from 9 and leaving the average Tipster with a percentage just under 50.
Read MoreFinal MoSHPlay update: Giants by 4 points.
MoSHPlay ends at Essendon by 11 points.
It’s the Swans by 34 poins, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay ends with Dogs by 12 and Dockers by 38 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on the rest of the round, which are currently most extreme for Collingwood and Fremantle (largest), and Sydney (smallest) victories.
MoSHPlay finishes with the Dees by 3 points.
Based on the highest-rated of the emergencies being named as the subs for both teams, MoSHPlay has the Dees by 5 points in the Friday night game
MoSHPlay lands on Cats by 8 points
Based on the highest-rated of the emergencies being named as the subs for both teams, MoSHPlay has the Cats by 10 points
We saw very close alignment between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ winners and margins forecasts, and we see much the same thing in their Totals forecasts.
Read MoreIt’s weeks like this that make me realise that the goal is not to create predictive models that virtually mimic the established bookmakers, but instead to create predictive models that are highly correlated for the most part with those bookmakers, but that differ often enough to be interesting, and that are right when they’re different often enough to be profitable.
Read MoreThe MoS twins are still in 2023 parameterised in such a way that they make some of their largest adjustments in the early parts of the season, as evidenced by the Port Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood, Melbourne, and Essendon climbs this week, and the matching Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn falls.
Read MoreNo head-to-head tipster did better than 5.5 from 9 this week, which was the mark set by the TAB bookmaker and matched only by Home Sweet Home and MoSHBODS_Marg. Worst was Consult The Ladder’s 2.5 from 9, and the all-Tipster average came in at 4.5 from 9.followed by Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins on 133.5 from 189 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is one tip further back.
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