2023 - Round 5 : Still Looking for Signal

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This week, the overall average bookmaker expected margin has come in at 17.6 points per game, a tick under last week’s 17.9, and a little lower than the all-time average for Round 5s.

That average includes six games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and three games expected to be won by more than 4 goals, and it drives the all-Season average up to just under 14 points per game.

Interestingly, if we look, instead, at the ladder positions of the opposing teams this week, we find that we have:

  • Three games where the teams are separated by just a single spot on the ladder

  • Three games where they’re separated by exactly three spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly four spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly five spots

  • One game where they’re separated by exactly six spots

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2023 - Round 4 Results - Routine

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There were six bookmaker favourites that won this week, though enough MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters ignored favouritism that we ended up with a 5.4 from 9 all-Tipster average.

Home Sweet Home did enough, however, to retain top spot, and is now on 23.5 from 36 (65%), but just one tip ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 22,5 (63%) and a further tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 21.5 (60%).

The all-Tipster average now stands at 19.9 from 36 (55%).

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2023 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE MONDAY 2:45PM

Cats by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 4:45PM

It’s Melbourne by 45 points, according to MoSHPlay - a startling 19 point difference from MoSHBODS

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s thoughts on the evening matches

UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 11 points

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

Crows by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE FRIDAY 3:45PM

Blues by 32, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the remainder of the games in Round 4.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Pies by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay

2023 - Round 4 : We Continue

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In stark contrast with last week, according to the TAB Bookmaker we can expect single digit victory margins in only two games this week, and margins of under 3 goals in just five games.

In the remaining games, expected margins range from about three-and-a-half to just under seven-goals.

The overall average expected margin is just under 18 points per game, which is almost three points higher than the average for the same Round in 2022, but just under the historical average for the Round.

That figure of 17.9 points per game drives the all-Season average up to just under 13 points per game, which is virtually identical to last year’s average through Round 3.

Whilst the average expected margin has been just under 13 points per game so far in 2023, the average actual margin has been 29.2 points per game.

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2023 - Round 3 Results - Near Perfect

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Again this week, more home teams than opening market favourites were successful, which leaves the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard in the very unusual position of having Home Sweet Home two tips clear of the pack on 18.5 from 27 (69%). MoSHBODS_Marg currently sits in 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Marg in 3rd. MoSHPlay_Marg sits second-last on the table, ahead only of Consult The Ladder.

The all-Tipster average, despite just five favourites winning, was 5.6 from 9, leaving the average Tipster with a percentage of just under 54.

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2023 - Round 3 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4:45PM SUNDAY

In the last game of an interesting round, MoSHPlay is tipping Fremantle by 20 points.


UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes as the lone contrarian Margin Predictor with the Swans winning by 2 points.

UPDATE 1:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 17 points.


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Here’s MoSHPlay’s final tips for tonight’s games (we missed the late LDU out today, which would have moved the forecast to Hawks by 16 points).


UPDATE 10:30PM THURSDAY

Here’s MoSHPlay’s first look at the rest of the round, making assumptions about what the final squads of 23 will be.

UPDATE 6:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 6 points.

UPDATE 4PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay has tonight’s game as a 7-point Dogs victory.

2023 - Round 3 : Normal Service Resumed

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According to the TAB Bookmaker, no game this week is expected to be won by more than 3 goals, and five of them are expected to won by less than 2 goals.

Five home teams and four away teams are currently favourites, which is exactly the same mix as we saw in the opening markets in Round 1 and in Round 2.

The overall average expected margin is just 11.3 points per game, which is the lowest for a Round 3 on record and over a goal less than the average for the Round.

That figure drives the all-Season average down to just 11 points per game, which is a full point per game below last year’s average through Round 3, and is also a record across the period we are looking at.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 2

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At the heart of any Elo-based system is the parameter k, which determines how responsive the system is to a single result, and it’s always a worry early in the season how well that k has been chosen.

This week, that k has seen the Pies rocket to top spot on both MoS Systems, ahead of the Cats and the Swans in that order on MoSSBODS, and the Swans and the Cats in that order on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 2 Results - Less Predictable

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Six home teams, but only four favourites, were successful in Round 2, which left the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard with a very unexpected leader in Home Sweet Home. It is now two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and MoSHBODS_Marg.

The all-Tipster average was just 4.4 from 9, down a shade on last week’s 4.5 from 9 and leaving the average Tipster with a percentage just under 50.

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2023 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 5:30PM

Final MoSHPlay update: Giants by 4 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM

MoSHPlay ends at Essendon by 11 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

It’s the Swans by 34 poins, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay ends with Dogs by 12 and Dockers by 38 points.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7:30PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on the rest of the round, which are currently most extreme for Collingwood and Fremantle (largest), and Sydney (smallest) victories.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay finishes with the Dees by 3 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Based on the highest-rated of the emergencies being named as the subs for both teams, MoSHPlay has the Dees by 5 points in the Friday night game

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay lands on Cats by 8 points

UPDATE THURSDAY 1PM

Based on the highest-rated of the emergencies being named as the subs for both teams, MoSHPlay has the Cats by 10 points

2023 - Round 1 Results - Could Be Better, Could Be Worse

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No head-to-head tipster did better than 5.5 from 9 this week, which was the mark set by the TAB bookmaker and matched only by Home Sweet Home and MoSHBODS_Marg. Worst was Consult The Ladder’s 2.5 from 9, and the all-Tipster average came in at 4.5 from 9.followed by Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins on 133.5 from 189 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is one tip further back.

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2023 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay is still tipping the upset in the Hawks v Bombers game, but now by only 5 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay is a little more confident about the Giants’ chances having seen the final teams, and now has them winning by 8 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 7:15PM

Sydney by 6 points is MoSHPlay’s final offer.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay moves only a fraction of a point with the announcement of the final teams, but with rounding ends at Port Adelaide by 8 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

With the announcement of the final teams, MoSHPlay has switched and has it now as the Eagles by 2 points.


UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 12 points (and has some changes to the Sunday forecasts now that Final Teams have been announced)


UPDATE THURSDAY 8PM

MoSHPlay has now had a chance to look at all the named squads and, assuming that the highest-rated 1 of the 4 Emergencies in the Final Teams, and highest-rated 5 of the 8 Interchanges in the Extended Squads, are eventually named, differs most from MoSHBODS in the following:

  • Dockers by 6 vs Saints by 4 (10 points different)

  • Power by 7 vs Power by 16 (9 points different)

  • Swans by 7 vs Suns by 2 (9 points different)

  • Cats by 10 vs Cats by 17 (7 points different)

In the five remaining games, the forecast margins differ by a goal or less.


UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

With O’Brien named in the Blues’ team, MoSHPlay has moved to Tigers by 14 points.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay has been a little brave with its first forecast of the season, but nothing too outrageous (and still subject to adjustment when the subs are named)

Tigers by 12