As the table at right shows, teams playing at home in the first week of the Finals tend to do fairly well, least of all for teams finishing 5th, and most of all for teams finishing 1st and 2nd.
That hasn’t stopped the bookmakers from making the 7th-placed Richmond favourites playing away to the 6th-placed Brisbane Lions, or from making the other home teams favourites by only two-and-a-half to three goals.
Read MoreThere was quite a bit of movement on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, though Geelong did enough to retain top spot on both Rating Systems. Just below them, Melbourne grabbed 2nd from Sydney on both Systems as the latter didn’t do enough against the Saints to impress them.
In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and 10 on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems disagreeing only about the 6th and 7th, and 15th and 16th spots.
Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreAll nine winners this week sat higher on the competition ladder than their opponents at the start of the round, which was, of course, excellent news for Consult The Ladder.
Eight of them were also early-week favourites, though, so scores were generally high for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters, Home Sweet Home aside.
MoSHBODS_Marg managed 8 from 9, which allowed it to assume outright 1st position again, now on 148.5 from 198 (75%), and one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who scored only 7 from 9. Bookie Knows Best remains in outright 3rd on 141.5 from 198 (72%), one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has switched to Pies by 1 point.
Dogs by 14 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has landed on Tigers by 11 points, and Power by 28.
It’s the Cats by 95 points (sic), according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has it as Giants and Suns both by 13 points.
MoSHPlay has it now as Lions by 8 points.
MoSHPlay is currently the extreme Margin Predictor in six games, including a very brave 92-point forecast for the Cats’ winning margin.
The average absolute difference between MoSSBODS and bookmaker expected Totals this week is about 8.5 points per game, and between MoSHBODS and bookmaker expected Totals is about 7.5 points per game. Those are some of the highest figures this season, surpassed only by those for Round 16, where expected rainfall in a few games dragged the bookmakers’ Totals lower, and by those for Round 14, which included only six games and which was also expected to be rain-affected. Only one game this week is expected to be rain-affected.
Read MoreThis week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, four more where they are separated by between 6 and 10 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 16 places.
That has resulted in a set of expected margins that includes six sized at under about three goals, two more sized at about three-and-a-half goals, and one sized at about ten-and-a-half goals.
The overall average expected margin is 20.1 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 23 standards though higher than last year’s figures. It takes the all-season average expected margin to its final value of 18.1 points per game, which is the highest since 2018.
Read MoreGeelong retained Top spot on both Rating Systems this week, while Sydney impressed MoSSBODS enough to move into 2nd, thereby aligning the Top 3s under both Systems.
In total, there were nine moves on MoSSBODS and seven on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st through 3rd, 6th, 7th, 11th, 12th, and 15th through 18th teams. Carlton is the only team for which their rankings differ by more than a single place.
Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreThe RSMP twins tipped all nine winners this week, and five other Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged eight, which included MoSSBODS_Marg but not MoSHBODS_Marg and left us with a tie at the top of the Leaderboard.
Both MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg are now on 140.5 from 189 (74%) with just 18 games to play, followed by Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins on 133.5 from 189 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is one tip further back.
Read MoreEssendon by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.
A very (overly?) confident MoSHPlay has it as Swans by 31 points.
Adelaide by only 26 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Dogs by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor - at the moment - in three games, including the Crows v Roos game where its forecast is 12 points different from MoSHBODS’.
There are some larger-than-usual differences of opinion between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with the average absolute difference in their Totals forecasts coming in at 4.7 points per game, which is comfortably the highest this season, breaking the previous high of 4.0 points per game from Round 20.
Between the two, MoSSBODS’ forecasts are more similar to the bookmakers’, both at the individual game level and at the level of the overall average expected Totals.
Read MoreThis week includes seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 6 places (in five of which the difference is 4 places or fewer), one where they are separated by exactly 10 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 11 places.
That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes six sized at under three-and-a-half goals, and three more size at between four-and-a-half and five-and-a-half goals.
The overall average expected margin is 19.9 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 22 standards. It takes the all-season average expected margin to 18 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong retained Top spot on both Rating Systems this week as the two teams below them dropped Rating points. On MoSHBODS that was enough to see Sydney take 2nd, relegating Melbourne to 3rd while on MoSSBOS the declines were roughly equally-sized, allowing Melbourne to retain 2nd.
In total, there were 11 moves on MoSSBODS and nine on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st, 6th, and 9th through 18th teams. There is now no team where they differ in their rankings by more than a single place.
Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and just nine now on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreEarly-week favourites fared generally poorly this week, with only five of them taking the competition points. The Top 3 Tipsters on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard all scored five from nine, which left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 133.5 from 171 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 132.5 (74%), and then Bookie Knows Best on 125.5 (70%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 124.5 (69%).
Read MoreIt’s the Crows by 9 points in the last game of the round, according to MoSHPlay.
Lions by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Cats by 27 points and Port by 18, according to MoSHPlay.
Dogs by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has finished at Hawks by 6 points and Essendon by 10 points.
MoSHPlay is currently the extreme Margin Predictor in just one game.
Overall, there are reasonably high levels of agreement this week between MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers, with all three having the average expected Totals within a point of one another. MoSHBODS, however, again has higher expectations in a number of games, and about a two-point higher average expected Total.
Read MoreThis week includes a remarkable seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, one where they are separated by exactly 7 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 14 places.
That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes seven sized at about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two sized at about six-and-a-half or seven-and-a-half goals.
The overall average expected margin is 16.3 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 21 standards, and the lowest in the history of the data shown here. It drops the all-season average expected margin to just under 18.0 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS for the second week running and essential remaining static on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged Sydney to take second.
In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and the same number on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st to 6th, 8th, and 13th through 18th teams. There is now only one team where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and twelve, with Essendon just making the cut, on MoSHBODS,
Read MoreSeven early-week favourites again won this week, which set the floor for the Head-to-Head Tipster performances as five Tipsters recorded seven correct tips, and four recorded eight correct tips. Two of those scoring eight from nine were the team-based MoS models, which left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 128.5 from 171 (75%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 127.5 (75%), and then Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, all now eight tips behind, on 120.5 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 119.5 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has Cats by 21 points and Blues by 16 points.
Pies by just under a goal, and Swans by just under 5 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has flipped to Freo - just.
MoSHPlay is, so far, the extreme Margin Predictor in three games.
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