2022 - Round 18 : A Lot Going On

/

This week we have:

  • 1 game where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder

  • 4 games where they're between 3 and 5 places apart

  • 4 games where they're 9 or 10 places apart

That’s translated into five games that the TAB Bookmaker expects to have a single digit margin, two more with expected margins around two-and-a-half goals, one with an expected margin around 6.5 goals, and a final one with an expected margin around nine-and-a-half goals,

The overall average expected margin is 15.5 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 18 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s 15.4 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.1 points per game.

Read More

2022 - Team Ratings After Round 17

/

Geelong’s win over Melbourne was enough to see them snag top spot from the Dees on both MoS Rating Systems this week, and Sydney’s win over Western Bulldogs was enough to convince MoSHBODS to join MoSSBODS in ratings them third.

Overall, 13 teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, including all but the teams in 3rd, and 15th to 18th. The same number moved places on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 17th and 18th teams. There are only three teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton, Collingwood, and Richmond.

Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.

Read More

2022 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay

/

UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 27 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

Hawks by 2 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Lions by 21 now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM

Dockers by 2 and Port by 16, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM

Some MoSHPlay updates to reflect the latest team lists on the AFL website.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

Pies by 9 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

Swans by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay is currently the extreme predictor in only two games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

Cats by two whiskers now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE THURSDAY 10:30AM

It’s the Cats by a whisker, according to MoSHPlay.

2022 - Round 17 : Seven Left

/

Not that the quality of a game is always about the ladder-proximity of the opponents, but this week we have:

  • 3 games where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder

  • 1 game where they're 2 places apart

  • 1 game where they're 4 places apart

  • 1 game where they're 5 places apart

  • 2 games where they're 12 places apart

  • 1 game where they're 13 places apart

That’s a mixed bag, and the TAB Bookmaker expected margins reflect that, with five of them single-digit, two of them about 2-and-a-half goals, one of them 5-and-a-half goals, and the last of them about 9-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 17.1 points per game, which is slightly below average by general Round 17 standards, but the highest since 2019. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.3 points per game.

Read More

2022 - Team Ratings After Round 16

/

Melbourne, in the end, did just enough in their 29-points and 9 scoring shots victory over Adelaide to nudge their ratings a little higher and retain top spot on both MoS Systems this week.

Geelong now sits directly behind them on both Systems, with Sydney and the Western Bulldogs filling 3rd and 4th in a different order. Sydney, by virtue of recording six more scoring shots than Essendon, actually gained rating points on MoSSBODS this week despite losing on the scoreboard, while on MoSHBODS, which includes an element of scoring shot conversion, the Swans suffered a slight decline.

Read More

2022 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay

/

UPDATE 4:45PM SUNDAY

Dockers by 14 is MoSHPlay’s final bid.

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at GIANTS by 14 points (sorry to shout)

UPDATE 1:30PM SUNDAY

Tigers by a tick over 8 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has made some small adjustments to its forecasts for tonight’s games.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

Swans by 9, according to MoSHPlay (and there’s also some updates to the forecasts for tomorrow’s games).

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor in three games for now.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

Just the smallest of tweaks from MoSHPlay, and we finish at Lions by 11 points.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

Lions by 2 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

2022 - Round 16 : By How Much?

/

Whereas last weekend was all about contests between teams quite proximate on the ladder, this week we have:

  • 1 game where the teams are one spot apart on the ladder (14 v 15)

  • 2 more games where the teams are four or five spots apart on the ladder (5 v 10, and 11 v 7)

  • 3 more games where the teams are seven or eight spots apart on the ladder (1 v 8, 9 v 17, and 4 v 12)

  • 3 more games where the teams are 10 or more spots apart on the ladder (16 v 6, 13 v 1, and 2 v 18)

That’s made for much higher TAB Bookmaker expected margins this week, including 3 of five goals or more. Only one game is expected to finish with a single-digit margin.

The overall average expected margin is 23,3 points per game, which is roughly average by general Round 16 standards, but nonetheless the highest since 2018. It raises the all-season average expected margin to 18.4 points per game.

Read More

2022 - Team Ratings After Round 15

/

We have new number ones on both Systems for the second time in two weeks, as Melbourne’s emphatic defeat of Brisbane Lions has seen them retake that mantle.

Overall, eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 12 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the 1st, 4th, 8th through 12th, and 17th and 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Essendon and GWS.

Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and MoSHBODS,.

Read More

2022 - Round 15 : MoSHPlay

/

UPDATE 3:30PM SUNDAY

Port Adelaide by 9 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has it as just a two goal Pies win.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

Adelaide by 19, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Swans by 16, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 8PM FRIDAY

Essendon by 22, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:30PM FRIDAY

It’s the Dogs by just over 4 goals, if you trust MoSHPlay (and many, wisely, don’t)

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

At this point, MoSHPlay is the most extreme forecaster in only two games.


UPDATE 6:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 11 points.


UPDATE 7:30PM WEDNESDAY

It’s Melbourne by 2 goals, according to MoSHPlay.

2022 - Round 15 : Competitive

/

This week comprises:

  • 3 games where the teams are separated by only 1 spot on the ladder

  • 3 games where the gap is 2 spots

  • 1 game where the gap is 3 spots, and

  • 2 games where the gap is 4 spots

That’s made for generally small TAB Bookmaker expected margins, including 3 of under a goal, and five more under three goals. The odd one out is the 25.5 handicap for North Melbourne playing Adelaide.

The overall average expected margin is just 12,7 points per game, which is low by general Round 15 standards, but curiously higher that the matching figure for the same round last season. It drops the all-season average expected margin to 18 points per game.

Read More

2022 - Team Ratings After Round 14

/

We have new number ones on both Systems again this week, as a stationary Melbourne has watched Geelong fall below it and allow it to retake top spot on MoSSBODS, and Western Bulldogs have clambered over that same falling Geelong and a stationary Melbourne to claim top spot on MoSHBODS.

Overall, eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 15 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th, and 15th through 18th teams. There are no teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places.

Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and 12 teams on MoSHBODS, as it adds St Kilda to the list.

Read More

2022 - Round 14 : MoSHPlay

/

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

It’s Dogs by 4 points now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Cats by 47 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.


UPDATE 7:15PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has the Saints by 15 points.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in just two games, at this point.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

Tigers by just 5 points, now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

It’s Tigers by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay.