The MoS twins have some very different opinions than the bookmakers this week on a number games, disagreeing by, on average, about a goal and a half per game. In three games they expect more points - in two of which, rain is expected - and in six games they expect fewer points.
Read MoreWhereas last weekend was all about contests between teams quite proximate on the ladder, this week we have:
1 game where the teams are one spot apart on the ladder (14 v 15)
2 more games where the teams are four or five spots apart on the ladder (5 v 10, and 11 v 7)
3 more games where the teams are seven or eight spots apart on the ladder (1 v 8, 9 v 17, and 4 v 12)
3 more games where the teams are 10 or more spots apart on the ladder (16 v 6, 13 v 1, and 2 v 18)
That’s made for much higher TAB Bookmaker expected margins this week, including 3 of five goals or more. Only one game is expected to finish with a single-digit margin.
The overall average expected margin is 23,3 points per game, which is roughly average by general Round 16 standards, but nonetheless the highest since 2018. It raises the all-season average expected margin to 18.4 points per game.
Read MoreWe have new number ones on both Systems for the second time in two weeks, as Melbourne’s emphatic defeat of Brisbane Lions has seen them retake that mantle.
Overall, eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 12 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the 1st, 4th, 8th through 12th, and 17th and 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Essendon and GWS.
Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and MoSHBODS,.
Read MoreSix opening-market favourites won this week, but most of the MoS models knew better, in particular MoSHBODS_Marg, whose eight from nine performance was enough to see it kick two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard, and now on 92 from 126 (73%). MoSSBODS_Marg sits in second place on 90 from 126 (71%), ahead of Bookie Knows Best on 88 from 126 (70%).
Read MorePort Adelaide by 9 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay has it as just a two goal Pies win.
Adelaide by 19, according to MoSHPlay.
Swans by 16, according to MoSHPlay.
Essendon by 22, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s the Dogs by just over 4 goals, if you trust MoSHPlay (and many, wisely, don’t)
At this point, MoSHPlay is the most extreme forecaster in only two games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 11 points.
It’s Melbourne by 2 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
The MoS twins broadly agree with the bookmakers this week on most games, and their overall average expected totals differ by only a point or two.
Read MoreThis week comprises:
3 games where the teams are separated by only 1 spot on the ladder
3 games where the gap is 2 spots
1 game where the gap is 3 spots, and
2 games where the gap is 4 spots
That’s made for generally small TAB Bookmaker expected margins, including 3 of under a goal, and five more under three goals. The odd one out is the 25.5 handicap for North Melbourne playing Adelaide.
The overall average expected margin is just 12,7 points per game, which is low by general Round 15 standards, but curiously higher that the matching figure for the same round last season. It drops the all-season average expected margin to 18 points per game.
Read MoreWe have new number ones on both Systems again this week, as a stationary Melbourne has watched Geelong fall below it and allow it to retake top spot on MoSSBODS, and Western Bulldogs have clambered over that same falling Geelong and a stationary Melbourne to claim top spot on MoSHBODS.
Overall, eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 15 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th, and 15th through 18th teams. There are no teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places.
Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and 12 teams on MoSHBODS, as it adds St Kilda to the list.
Read MoreOnly three favourites won this week, which afforded some opportunities for successful contrarian tips. MoSHBODS_Marg took almost full advantage, bagging five from six to open up a one tip gap over MoSSBODS_Marg, who managed four from six to claim outright second on the Leaderboard.
Read MoreIt’s Dogs by 4 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
Cats by 47 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay has the Saints by 15 points.
MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in just two games, at this point.
Tigers by just 5 points, now, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s Tigers by 6 points, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s another week of broad similarity between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ average expected margins, but with some significant differences in the opinions about individual games, partly as a consequence of the expected weather for some of them.
Read MoreHalf of this week’s three games could conceivably go down to the final kick (spoiler: they won’t) as, according to my competition ladder, which i ordered firstly be competition points per game played, sees 4th play 9th, 7th play 12th, and 10th play 13th (but, also, 6th play 16th, 5th play 17th, and 11th play 14th)
Altogether, the average expected margin is just over 3-goals per game, which is a little high in the context of Round 14s from recent history, being the highest average for a Round 14 since 2018, although lower than every Round 14 average prior to that in our sample.
It keeps the all-season average expected margin at 18.4 points per game, which, if maintained, would be the highest average since 2018.
Read MoreWe have new number ones on both Systems this week, as Geelong has edged past a falling Melbourne to take that prime position.
Overall, twelve teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and nine did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the Top 3, 6th, and 11th through 14th. There’s only one team, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 7th and MoSHBODS 10th.
The same twelve teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreFive of the six favourites again won this week, but this time all but Home Sweet Home joined Bookie Knows Best in registering that score, which meant there was no movement at all on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard.
Read MoreDees by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay lands on Giants by 24 points.
Lions by 19 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 12 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Richmond by 10 points for tonight’s game, and is forecaster most-extreme in this and just one other game.
Richmond by 8 points, according to MoSHPlay
The MoS twins are this week forecasting average Totals very similar to the bookmakers’, but they do have some quite different views about individual games.
Read MoreThis week looms as a potentially disappointing round, rescued maybe by the Lions v Saints and Pies v Dees matchups.
All six games are expected to be won by at least three-and-a-half goals, and half of them by more than four goals,
Altogether that makes for an average expected margin of 26 points per game, which is very high in the context of Round 13s from recent history. It is, in fact, the highest average for a Round 13 since 2016.
It drives the all-season average expected margin up to 18.4 points per game, which, it maintained, would be the highest average since 2018.
Read MoreTwelve teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and seven did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of all teams except those in 8th, 9th, 10th, 15th and 16th. The same twelve teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
The Top 5 teams on both Systems are, in order, Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and Fremantle.
Read MoreFive of the six favourites won this week, but only Bookie Knows Best recorded a score of five amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, which was enough to see it draw level with MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard. Those three are now on 74 from 105 (71%).
Read MoreFreo by just 3 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Pies by just 5 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 20 points.
Suns by 33 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Adelaide by 37 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 5 points.
MoSHPlay’s initial forecasts contain three that are the most extreme of all the Predictors, but only significantly so in the Gold Coast v North Melbourne game where it is 14 points below the bookmaker handicap.
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