2022 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 5:45PM SUNDAY

Dockers by 1 now, according to MoSHPlay..

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay is staying contrarian on the Tigers v Giants game and finishes at Giants by 9 points..

UPDATE 1PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay thinks it’s deciphered the implications of the Eagles’ changes and has finished at North by 16 points, a 9-point shift from MoSHBODS’ team-based assessment.

UPDATE 7:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has landed on Port by 11 points and Melbourne by 21 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to the Lions and expects them to win by 2 points.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

Pies by 17, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay still has the Swans as favourites, but only just.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay, for now, finds itself as the extreme predictor in the Dons v Lions, Roos v Eagles, and Dockers v Saints games.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 10 points


UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s opening bid (after guessing which of the emergencies will make the final 23) is Dogs by 9 points

2022 - Round 1 Results - A Bright Enough Start

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As a statistical modeller, you start every season wondering if the improvements you think you’ve made to your models are actually improvements or, instead, just ill-advised renovations to things that were perfectly functional as they were.

At this point, I think it’s fair to say that the changes have, at the very least, not rendered the models useless (as low as a bar as that might be).

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2022 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE SUNDAY 7PM

Eagles by 4, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SUNDAY 3:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Adelaide by 15 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Hawks by 16, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:30PM

With the final team announcements, MoSHPlay has switched to the Giants, but only by 1 point.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

The smallest of tweaks to the Cats’ victory margin. MoSHPlay now has it as Cats by 4.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Nothing particularly outrageous from MoSHPlay in its most recent set of forecasts, which are based on the currently named 22s plus the first of those named on the interchange. At this stage, it is the extreme forecaster only in the Eagles v Suns game where it has the home team winning by just 7 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 1:30AM

MoSHPlay is broadly in agreement (at this stage) with MoSHBODS about the Blues v Tigers game


UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:30PM

MoSHPlay, with the announcement of the final teams, has shaved a point off the Dees expected victory margin.

UPDATE TUESDAY 8PM

MoSHPlay (having reconsidered) likes the Dees’ and Dogs’ lineups about equally, and so has the home team winning by about 2 goals.

2022 - Round 1 : We're Still Here - Who Knew?

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Welcome back to all my long-term followers, hello to all my new followers (and arrivederci to those who’ve left, not that they’ll read this, I know).

For all that’s happened globally, locally, and for me, personally, since last we talked, it’s genuinely good to be back.

I realise it’s maybe a tad early to be posting Round 1 wagers and forecasts, but that just reflects the impatience of our time (oh, okay, and maybe my teenager-like impatience to get this thing started, as well)

Here’s what we have …

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2021 - Post Round 27 : Overs/Unders

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The bookmakers were clearly superior to both MoS twins this season in terms of their ability to forecast Game Totals, so much so that it’s fairly unlikely I’ll be bothering to wager in this market next season unless an off-season re-optimisation of the MoS algorithms suggests that a much stronger result is realistic.

In the meantime, let’s wrap up what the final round left us with.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 26

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The Dogs remained in 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, but now trail by only 2.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.1 Points on MoSHBODS.

The only teams moving spots were Port Adelaide, who fell three spots to 6th on both Systems, Brisbane Lions, who climbed two spots into 3rd on both Systems despite not playing, and Sydney, who climbed one spot into 5th on both Systems, also without playing.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the top seven and the bottom three teams.

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