2021 - Round 27 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS forecasters again have lower expectations for scoring than the bookmakers - by about two goals in MoSSBODS’ case.
Read More2021 - Round 27 (Week 4 of the Finals) : We Made It
/The Grand Final pits 1st against 5th, the first such pairing this millennium - in fact, the first time that 5th has made the Grand Final at all. Somewhat surprisingly, 1st has a worse than 50:50 record in Grand Finals across this period.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 26
/The Dogs remained in 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, but now trail by only 2.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.1 Points on MoSHBODS.
The only teams moving spots were Port Adelaide, who fell three spots to 6th on both Systems, Brisbane Lions, who climbed two spots into 3rd on both Systems despite not playing, and Sydney, who climbed one spot into 5th on both Systems, also without playing.
That left the two Systems agreeing about the top seven and the bottom three teams.
Read More2021 - Round 26 Results - One Favourite, One Dog
/Another full set of one from twos for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week has left MoSSBODS_Marg still three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 137.5 from 206 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 134.5 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 132.5 (64%).
Read More2021 - Round 26 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay has the Friday game being decided by less than a goal, but the Saturday game by almost four goals.
2021 - Round 26 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS forecasters have lower expectations for scoring than the bookmakers in both games, in the Friday game by just over a goal, and in the Saturday game by just under a goal.
Read More2021 - Round 26 (Week 3 of the Finals) : One, Two, Three and Five
/Once again, the home teams - one notional, one actual - are favourites this week in the two Preliminary Finals.
Those Finals pit 1st against 3rd, the historical record since 2000 for which is a 4-all draw, and 2nd against 5th where the former holds a 2-0 lead.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 25
/The Dogs slipped into 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, and find themselves trailing by 2.7 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.9 Points on MoSHBODS.
Geelong rose by a single spot on both Systems into 4th, and the Lions fell by two spots on MoSSBODS, and three spots on MoSHBODS. That means both Systems now agree about the Top 4 teams, and that these are the four teams contesting the Preliminary Finals.
In fact, the two Systems now agree about the top 11, and the bottom three teams..
Read More2021 - Round 25 Results - Dogs and Cats
/The one-point Dogs win meant that it was one from two for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left MoSSBODS_Marg still three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 136.5 from 204 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 133.5 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 131.5 (65%).
Read More2021 - Round 25 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE SATURDAY 6:30PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 20 points.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
The most minor of changes sees MoSHPlay moving from Geelong by 20.7 to 21.3 point favourites, now with a victory probability of 74%
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM
MoSHPlay is forecasting two fairly comfortable wins for the favourites
2021 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS forecasters have lower expectations for scoring in the Friday game than the bookmakers, and higher expectations for the Saturday game.
Read More2021 - Round 25 (Week 2 of the Finals) : Home But Away
/Both home teams are again favourites this week (despite the fact that one of them is playing its home game in a different State), a circumstance that is once more supported by recent history, which reveals that double-chance teams are 34 and 8 in Semi-Finals since 2000.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 24
/The Dees extended their lead on both Systems this week, and now find themselves 2.9 Scoring Shots ahead of Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and 8.7 Points ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSHBODS.
There was, however, something of a shake-up behind the Dees, with Port Adelaide rising two spots on MoSSBODS, and Geelong dropping two spots on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the top team, the teams in 4th through 11th, and the bottom three teams.
Read More2021 - Round 24 Results - Mostly to Script
/It was three out of fours all round this week, which left MoSSBODS_Marg three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 135.5 from 202 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 132.5 from 202 (66%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 130.5 from 202 (65%).…
Read More2021 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM
Just a small adjustment to the final forecast. Dogs by 7 now.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
Finals are not usually the time to be tipping upsets, not even for MoSHPlay
2021 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS forecasters, overall, have similar opinions to the bookmakers’ about likely Total scores, but somewhat different opinions about what individual teams score to reach those Totals.
Read More2021 - Round 24 (Week 1 of the Finals) : What Home Ground Advantage?
/It’s Monday night and we have teams, dates, and venues. Almost like a normal season.
All four notional home teams are favourites, according to the bookmakers, which is what you might expect if you scanned recent history, where you’d find that only the 5th vs 8th Elimination Final had produced anything like equally-likely outcomes.
Read More2021 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/The Dees, in the end, did more than enough against the Cats, and remain in top spot on both Systems, now 1.3 Scoring Shots ahead of Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and 4.6 Points ahead of them on MoSHBODS.
The two Systems now agree about the Top 11 and Bottom 3 teams.
Read More2021 - Round 23 Results - And Then There Were Eight
/The average Head-to-Head Probability Predictor tipped 6.4 of the 9 winners this week. MoSSBODS_Marg and Consult The Ladder registered round-best scores of 8 from 9, which saw MoSSBODS_Marg move three tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 133 from 198 (67%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 130 from 198 (65%) and MoSHPlay_Marg on 128 from 198 (64%).
So the MoS trio continue to fill all three positions on the dais based on the accuracy metric. The irony continues …
Read More2021 - Round 23 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Adelaide by 7.
UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM
Essendon by 21 is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
UPDATE SUNDAY 11:30AM
MoSHPlay ends at Saints by 17.
UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM
Brisbane by 44, according to MoSHPlay.
UPDATE SATURDAY 1:15PM
MoSHPlay has switched to Richmond with the final team announcement.
UPDATE THURSDAY PM
MoSHPlay, so far, is the extreme Margin Predictor in only three games
