It was a mostly uneventful week on head-to-head tipping, as the nine Head-to-Head Tipsters all scored either five or six from nine, which left MoSSBODS_Marg two tips clear atop the Leaderboard and now on 107 from 162 (66%) ahead of four other Tipsters on 105 from 162.
Read MoreHere’s MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on Round 19. Nothing particularly controversial - in fact, if anything a little more conservative than the twins.nough to have MoSHPlay, unlike MoSHBODS, going with the favourites: Cats by 4
Read MoreIt’s something more of a traditional round this week, with the MoS twins’ all-game expected total score coming in about four to five points lower than the bookmakers’.
Read MoreIt’s getting increasingly difficult to keep up with the intra-week changes, but this week, at least for now, we do have a full set of matchups and confirmed venues - and it’s only Wednesday night.
In those matches, we have eight home team favourites (where home is more designated than geographical in some cases), which stands in stark contrast to last week where we had only a single home team favourite. Bookmaker-expected victory margins range from 2 to 29 points, with the all-game average coming in at just under 14 points per game.
Read MoreMore dropped Rating points for the Dogs again this week, but they remain the top-rated team on both Systems as the Dees failed to capitalise, and also dropped points. The Dogs’ lead has been cut to 0.9 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, however, and 4.0 points on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order there was again quite a bit of movement this week, with 14 teams changing places on MoSSBODS and nine doing the same on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were Richmond and Carlton (both up 3), and Port Adelaide (up 2), as well as Fremantle (down 4) and Collingwood and Adelaide (down 3 each), On MoSHBODS they were Carlton (up 4), Richmond (up 3), Collingwood (down 3), and Fremantle and St Kilda (both down 2).
All those moves have done a lot to align the Systems’ rankings. Currently, they now have the same Top 11 and the same Bottom 4.
Read MoreAnother largely unpleasant set of results for most MoS models, but, to be honest, right now it’s hard to sustain feeling hard done by as these latest COVID variants audition on the world’s Virus Got Talent stages.
Read MoreArmed now with the last piece of this weekend’s fixturing puzzle, here is the complete set of MoS model forecasts.
Read MoreWe now know the venues for all nine games, and have bookmaker markets for all but the last game of the round, so we can revise all of the forecasts for the relocated Richmond v Brisbane Lions game, and some of the forecasts for the relocated GWS v Sydney game.
Read MoreThe announced teams are enough to have MoSHPlay, unlike MoSHBODS, going with the favourites: Cats by 4
Read MoreDays like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.
Read MoreAs I write this, there are eight away team favourites across the nine games of the upcoming round, with bookmaker-expected victory margins for those eight teams ranging from 0.5 to 25.5 points, and that for the lone home team favourite coming in at 39.5 points. That yields an all-game average expected margin of 12.7 points per game.
Read MoreDespite dropping Rating points again this week, the Dogs remain the top-rated team on both Systems, although their lead now is only 1.6 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 4.9 points on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order there was quite a bit of movement, with a dozen teams changing places on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), Sydney and Essendon (up 2), and Port Adelaide and Richmond (down 3), while on MoSHBODS they were St Kilda (up 4), Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast (up 2), Carlton, GWS, and Adelaide (down 2), and Richmond (down 4).
Currently, both Systems have the same Top 5 and Bottom 1.
Read MoreWell, that was carnage.
Read MoreNow that we know the venue for the Lions v Saints game, and the associated markets are up, we have all that we need to finalise the forecasts and the wagers.
Read MoreEagles by 26 according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has switched to the Pies.
Dogs by 24 now, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay now has the Giants - sorry, GIANTS - by only 13 points
Just the tiniest of adjustments for the Blues v Cats game. Now Cats by 20.
Fremantle by 9 points now, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay is the most extreme margin forecaster in just two games, and the most extreme probability estimator in four games.
Port Adelaide by 3, according to MoSHPlay
We’re still waiting for confirmed venues for the Lions v Saints game, but here’s what we have so far. It shows a fairly high level of agreement between the MoS twins and the bookmakers.
Read MoreAfter another week of staggered announcements about fixturing, here we are on Wednesday morning with only the Lions v Saints game yet to find a home.
The round looks like an interesting one, with all but two of the games forecast to be decided by less than 4 goals, and with six games that the simulations have flagged as particularly important in determining the composition of the ultimate finalists.
Read MoreSome mid- and lower-table movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, most notably the Swans’ climb of 4 spots into 7th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and the Eagles’ dive of 3 spots into 17th on both Systems. On MoSHBODS, GWS’ 3 spot climb into 10th was also notable.
At the end of it all, both Systems still have the same Top 5, despite the Dogs Rating decline on both Systems after an insufficiently dominant performance against the Roos.
Read MoreOverall, the Head-to-Head Tipsters did only a little better this week than they did last week, the all-Tipster average coming in at 4.9 from 9, just one-tenth of a tip higher. There was, however, a greater range of scores, with four Tipsters bagging only 4 from 9, and three Tipsters bagging 6 from 9.
Amongst the Tipsters registering the maximum were MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg who, as a result, now have 1st and 2nd places respectively, outroght. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only a 5 from 9 and so fell one tip behind MoSHBODS_Margin.
Read MoreIt’s Friday afternoon, I’m in lockdown, we’re one game into the round, and I can now finalise all the outputs. What a week.
Firstly, here are the updated forecasts. Nothing startling in the Crows v Lions game.
And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. Adelaide, at home, enjoy a net +2.7 SS VPV on MoSSBODS, and +11.8 points on MoSHBODS.
Here’s the update to wagering, which shows a small wager on Adelaide at $4.20.
Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on wagering in the Adelaide game, since our own score forecasts are virtually identical to the Total on offer.
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