This week looks a bit like last week, at least in terms of the bookmaker margins. The average expected margin of 17.3 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is about 1 point per game lower, and there are again only two games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
Read MoreOn MoSSBODS this week, Geelong climbed into 2nd over Melbourne and Richmond, as all but five of the two were re-ranked. Sydney and Fremantle, along with Geelong, were the only teams to climb multiple spots, while Gold Coast was the only team to fall multiple spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, Geelong also climbed two spots, but only into 3rd, while St Kilda climbed three spots, and Gold Coast and Collingwood fell two spots.
So, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Dees, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Dees, and Cats.
Read MoreIn a round in which seven favourites registered the win, it’s unsurprising that the Head-to-Head Tipster average came in at 6.9 from 9 this week. Best were RSMP_Weighted’s and Consult The Ladder’s 8 from 9, and worst was Home Sweet Home’s 5 from 9. RSMP_Weighted’s performance was good enough to move it into joint leadership with MoSSBODS_Marg. on 49 from 72 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is tipping a narrow upset in the Friday night game: Cats by 1 point
Read MoreAs I type this on Tuesday evening, there is no TAB Totals market for the Lions v Dockers game. Sportsbet have the Total at 160.5 but, as is tradition here, we won’t lock in the numbers for that game for the bookmakers until both have posted Totals.
Read MoreAfter a 24-hour pause while we found out where the Dockers v Lions game would be played, we finish with an average expected margin of 18.4 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is up by over 4 points on last weeks’ figure.
Only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, and five are expected to be decided by more than 3 goals.
Read MoreDespite two of them shedding Ratings, the Top 7 teams retained their rankings on MoSSBODS this week, but there was a lot of action below them, with West Coast climbing 5 spots, GWS and St Kilda climbing 3 spots each, Fremantle plummeting 7 spots, and Sydney falling 3 spots.
Over on MoSHBODS, only the Cats and Lions swapped places amongst the Top 7, while West Coast climbed 4 spots, GWS climbed 3, and Fremantle fell 5 spots.
Overall, for the third week running, the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond, and the two Systems left North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreWe surmised that head-to-head tipping was going to be more difficult this week and, indeed, it was, with the Head-to-Head Tipster average coming in at just 4.4 from 9 this week, down by almost two full tips. Five Tipsters managed 5 from 9, including MoSHPlay_Marg, which took it into joint leadership with MoSSBODS_Marg on 42 from 63 (67%).
Read MoreDogs by 12 in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay
Read MoreOver the course of the season so far, the MoS twins have tended to over-estimate Total scores by about 5 points per game, and the bookmakers under-estimate them by about 3 points per game. This week, they’ve all but come together in deciding that the nine games will average somewhere around 162 to 163 points per game.
Read MoreThis week’s average expected margin is only just over 14 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, and would be considerably lower but for the 55.5 points start that North Melbourne are being offered. All of the remaining games have expected margins of under 3 goals, and seven of them of under 2 goals.
If you tip all nine winners this week, you’ll have achieved something remarkable.
Read MoreA dozen teams were again re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and a dozen also on MoSHBODS but, for the second week running, the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreThe Head-to-Head Tipsters averaged 6.2 from 9 correct tips this week, up fractionally on last week’s average of 6.1 correct tips. MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg fared best, bagging 7 from 9, with all other Tipsters bagging 6 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg now stands alone atop the Leaderboard on 38 from 54 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is a firm Dogs advocate this week
Read MoreThis week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at under a goal, with that difference heavily influenced by the strongly diverging views about the likely score in the Pies v Dons game, and offset a little by two games in which the MoS twins are expecting higher scores than are the bookmakers. (Yes, that’s right: higher …)
Read MoreThis week’s average expected margin is just under 15 points per game according to the TAB bookmaker, which is about two-thirds what it was last week. The only game that threatens to be a blowout is the Dockers v Roos game, where the expected margin is about seven goals. Six other games are expected to be won by less than about two goals.
Read MoreA dozen teams were re-ranked on MoSSBODS this week, and 10 on MoSHBODS but, once again the Top 3 were left unchanged on both Systems as Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and then Richmond. The two Systems also both left Hawthorn in 17th and North Melbourne in 18th.
Read MoreThe Head-to-Head Tipsters did a little better as a group this week, averaging 6.1 from 9 correct tips, with the RSMP twins and Bookie Knows Best recording the round’s highest score of 7 and drawing level with MoSHPlay_Marg. The remaining two MoS models remain tied at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 31 from 45 (69%).
Read MoreNothing too startling from MoSHPlay for the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay now likes the Dogs by 42. No change in the Swans v Giants game.
MoSHPlay pretty much doing what MoSHPlay does in the Saturday games - mostly mainstream in two, and bordering on outrageous in the third
Eagles by 15 in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay
With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay is now tipping the Tigers by 7 points
Tigers by only 5 tomorrow night, according to MoSHPlay
This week’s average gap between the MoS twins’ forecasts and the bookmakers’ has come in at just over a goal, though with much larger differences in the Eagles v Pies, Dogs v Suns, and Lions v Dons games.
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