With all but Control The Ladder and Home Sweet Home bagging 8 from 9 correct tips amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, it’s almost enough to convince me that “accuracy” might be a reasonable measure of a forecaster’s ability (hint: it absolutely isn’t).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is very conservative in Game 1 of Round 2
Read MoreIn a welcome development, all nine Totals markets were up on Tuesday morning, so MoSSBODS could choose from a full menu and, given its still relatively bearish outlook on scoring, it liked what it saw.
Read MoreOn paper, tipping winners should be a little harder this week, since the TAB bookmaker all-game average expected margin is down from 16.8 to 14.2 points per game, with 6 of the 9 games expected to be won by under 13 points.
Read MoreThe MoS twins are, by design, big on punishments and rewards during the early rounds of a new season, and this week the Swans and the Lions, in particular, demonstrated that.
Read MoreAll of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, bar Home Sweet Home, correctly selected five or six winners this week, which saw the all-Tipster average come in at 5.3.
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s first forecast of the season is bold without being ridiculous. That’s a good start.
Read MoreThe MoS twins, again this year, are far less optimistic about the likely levels of scoring in Round 1 than are the bookmakers. Overall, the twins are predicting about 10 points per game fewer.
Read MoreAt the start of a season there’s always a non-trivial risk that the MoS models will come up with forecasts that are riotously different from the bookmakers’, but this year it’s almost as if those bookmakers holidayed at Chez MoS over the offseason.
Read MoreExactly 12 months ago today, I posted about the tipsters, predictors and Funds for the 2020 season.
The world has changed a bit since then, but MoS won’t be - well not by much.
Read MoreIn Round 22, the bookmakers recorded the smallest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and AwayTeam Scores, and MoSHBODS recorded the smallest MAE for Game Totals.
Read MoreMoSHBODS’ relatively high and unfulfilled expectations of the Cats was enough to have it crown Richmond as the number 1 rated team at the end of the season, while MoSSBODS’ less lofty aspirations for the runners up saw it leave Geelong in top spot.
Read MoreSo, after 162 games and one of the most extraordinary seasons of all time for reasons unrelated to football, our three winners are:
Head-to-Head Tipster: MoSHPlay_Marg (116 correct tips, which is an accuracy of 72%)
Margin Predictor: Bookie_9 (MAE of 22.81 points per game)
Head-to-Head Probability Predictor: Bookie_LPSO (Average Log Probability Score of 0.1500 bits per game)
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s first forecast of the season is bold without being ridiculous. That’s a good start.
Read MoreIn last year’s Grand Final, Richmond scored 47 points in the first half. This year, even using the bookmakers’ more-generous estimates, they’re tipped to score only a couple of goals more in the entire contest.
Those bookmakers have estimated the total score for the match at 118.5 points, which is just a couple of points below the MoS twins’ estimates.
Read MoreNo matter how irrational it might be, recency bias will inevitably affect how a season’s performance of the MoS models will be remembered, and the result of the Grand Final will always be the most recent memory from that season. As such, the forecasts for that game always take on added, if perhaps unwarranted, importance.
This year, the MoS twins are both tipping an upset Cats victory, which, if anything, heightens the stakes.
Read MoreAnd it came to pass that the two highest-ranked teams on all three MoS Team Rating Systems progressed to the Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, Geelong will enter that Grand Final with 3.7 SS Rating advantage, and on MoSHBODS with a 6.7 points advantage.
Read MoreMoSHPlay_Marg did enough to secure the Head-to-Head Tipster title this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg assured itself of at least a share of 2nd, with RSMP_Simple the only other Tipster with a chance to tie for that spot.
The all-Tipster average for the week was just 0.7 from 2, with 5 of the 9 Tipsters recording zeroes.
Read MoreIt’s Port Adelaide by two goals in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay.
Turns out MoSHPlay is an even bigger fan of the Cats than MoSHBODS. Cats by 15.
After seeing the final squads, MoSHPlay likes the Cats even more. Cats by 17 now.
The MoS twins are slightly more optimistic about the likely scoring in the upcoming Preliminary Finals, but only by about a goal.
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