At the start of a season there’s always a non-trivial risk that the MoS models will come up with forecasts that are riotously different from the bookmakers’, but this year it’s almost as if those bookmakers holidayed at Chez MoS over the offseason.
Read MoreExactly 12 months ago today, I posted about the tipsters, predictors and Funds for the 2020 season.
The world has changed a bit since then, but MoS won’t be - well not by much.
Read MoreIn Round 22, the bookmakers recorded the smallest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and AwayTeam Scores, and MoSHBODS recorded the smallest MAE for Game Totals.
Read MoreMoSHBODS’ relatively high and unfulfilled expectations of the Cats was enough to have it crown Richmond as the number 1 rated team at the end of the season, while MoSSBODS’ less lofty aspirations for the runners up saw it leave Geelong in top spot.
Read MoreSo, after 162 games and one of the most extraordinary seasons of all time for reasons unrelated to football, our three winners are:
Head-to-Head Tipster: MoSHPlay_Marg (116 correct tips, which is an accuracy of 72%)
Margin Predictor: Bookie_9 (MAE of 22.81 points per game)
Head-to-Head Probability Predictor: Bookie_LPSO (Average Log Probability Score of 0.1500 bits per game)
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s first forecast of the season is bold without being ridiculous. That’s a good start.
Read MoreIn last year’s Grand Final, Richmond scored 47 points in the first half. This year, even using the bookmakers’ more-generous estimates, they’re tipped to score only a couple of goals more in the entire contest.
Those bookmakers have estimated the total score for the match at 118.5 points, which is just a couple of points below the MoS twins’ estimates.
Read MoreNo matter how irrational it might be, recency bias will inevitably affect how a season’s performance of the MoS models will be remembered, and the result of the Grand Final will always be the most recent memory from that season. As such, the forecasts for that game always take on added, if perhaps unwarranted, importance.
This year, the MoS twins are both tipping an upset Cats victory, which, if anything, heightens the stakes.
Read MoreAnd it came to pass that the two highest-ranked teams on all three MoS Team Rating Systems progressed to the Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, Geelong will enter that Grand Final with 3.7 SS Rating advantage, and on MoSHBODS with a 6.7 points advantage.
Read MoreMoSHPlay_Marg did enough to secure the Head-to-Head Tipster title this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg assured itself of at least a share of 2nd, with RSMP_Simple the only other Tipster with a chance to tie for that spot.
The all-Tipster average for the week was just 0.7 from 2, with 5 of the 9 Tipsters recording zeroes.
Read MoreIt’s Port Adelaide by two goals in the Friday night game, according to MoSHPlay.
Turns out MoSHPlay is an even bigger fan of the Cats than MoSHBODS. Cats by 15.
After seeing the final squads, MoSHPlay likes the Cats even more. Cats by 17 now.
The MoS twins are slightly more optimistic about the likely scoring in the upcoming Preliminary Finals, but only by about a goal.
Read MoreRegular readers might recall that, last week, I explained the intricacies of how the MoS twins come up with Venue Performance Values (VPVs), which are their versions of Home Ground Advantage.
Read MoreGeelong still heads both MoS Team Rating Systems this week, and now has a 2.5 Scoring Shot lead over Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, and a 2.8 point lead over Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS now, just under 3 Scoring Shots separate 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just under 4 points.
Read MoreMoSHPlay_Marg, in tipping both winners this week, moved three tips clear of MoSHBODS_Marg and so, with just three games still to be played in the 2020 season, is guaranteed at least a share of the final title.
With only MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg offering contrarian tips this week and with both games being won by the favourite, the all-Tipster average for the week came in at 1.8 from 2.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has the Tigers winning by just over 4 goals in the Friday night Semi Final.
Read MoreThe MoS twins roughly agree with the bookmakers about the likely total scores in the two Semi Finals, but not entirely about how those totals will be apportioned to the teams in each game.
Read MoreBoth MoS Team Rating Systems have parameters that determine how Venue Performance Values (VPV) are estimated.
Read MoreGeelong’s superior scoring shot production to Port Adelaide was enough to propel it back into the lead on both MoS Team Rating System this week, though its lead over Brisbane Lions is just 0.3 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and over Richmond is less than one-tenth of a point on MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS now, just 0.7 Scoring Shots separates 1st from 4th, while on MoSHBODS the gap is just 1.6 points. You can proverbially throw a blanket over the Cats, Lions, Tigers, and Power under both Systems.
Read MoreTipping winners proved hard this week for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with only Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder doing better than chance. MoSHPlay_Marg managed just 1 from 4, which saw its lead over MoSHBODS_Marg pared to two.
The all-Tipster average for the week came in at 1.4 from 4.
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