2020 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders
/This week’s theme seems to be one of general agreement between MoS models and the bookmakers, and we see that playing out also when we turn to forecasts of team scoring.
Read More2020 - Round 13 : Lucky For Some
/Only three games this week are expected to be decided by less than two goals, while four are expected to have a winning margin of greater than three goals, so we might see some increase in the season’s average winning margin, which currently stands at just 27.1 points per game.
Read More2020 - Team Ratings After Round 12
/Geelong now heads both MoS Team Rating Systems, and with something of a gap, though there’s debate about the ordering of the next five teams. MoSSBODS prefers Port Adelaide for 2nd, and Brisbane Lions for 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Richmond in 2nd, and Port Adelaide in 3rd.
Read More2020 - Round 12 Results - Yes, Of Course That Hurts
/If any of your friends or colleagues build statistical models for a living and pretend that they don’t hurt when their preferred models let them down, I’ll let you in on a secret: they’re lying, it hurts, and quite a bit.
Read More2020 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders Update
/The final two Totals markets have now been posted and are included in the table below.
Read More2020 - Round 12 : MoSHPlay Update
/It’s (still) GWS by 25 tonight, according to MoSHPlay, and now Geelong by 1 point in tomorrow’s game.
Read More2020 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/New leaders on both Systems this week, as Port Adelaide rockets up 4 spots on MossBODS to retake top spot their, and Geelong climbs two spots on MoSHBODS to claim top spot under that System.
MoSSBODS has Geelong in 2nd, and Brisbane Lions in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Port Adelaide and Richmond in those places.
Read More2020 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders
/Just seven of the nine games have Totals markets at this point, and these are shown below.
Read More2020 - Round 12 Tips and Wagers Update
/All of the line and head-to-head markets have now been posted, which means we can finalise tips and wagers (except over/under) for all nine games.
Here’s what the forecasts look like.
Read More2020 - Round 12 : It's 1am ... on a Thursday morning ... exactly whose idea was this?
/It’s far too late at night and early in the morning to be fully cogent, so let’s just get straight into the forecasts that we have, given that markets for some of the later games are not yet posted.
Read More2020 - Round 11 Results - At Least The Draw Removes The Decimals
/In the end, it was a pretty easy round to tip winners, and with relatively few contrarian tips, that meant (with the draw) we finished with Head-to-Head Tipsters recording either 5.5 or 6.5 from 8.
Read More2020 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay Update
/MoSHPlay is, relatively speaking, very keen about the Cats’ and the Hawks’ chances.
Read More2020 - Round 11 : Tips and Wagers Update
/With markets now available for all of the games, we’re able to finalise the round’s tips and wagers for everyone except MoSHPlay.
Read More2020 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/When Ratings are compressed, it doesn’t take much to see teams move multiple places, and this week saw There’s major upheaval again at the top of the MoS Team Ratings, with Richmond now holding 1st on both Systems, ahead of Collingwood and Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and ahead of Port Adelaide and Geelong on MoSHBODS.
Read More2020 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders
/Just six of the eight games have Totals markets at this point, and these are shown below.
Read More2020 - Round 11 : And Again
/If this end a round on one day and start the next on the following day becomes a thing in the future, I’m going to need to seriously reconsider running this blog …
So far, markets have only been framed for 7 of the 8 eight games, so those are the only 7 we’ll consider here. I’ll update in a separate blog, once the final markets are framed.
Read More2020 - Round 10 Results - Let's Call It a Draw
/MoSHPlay_Marg bagged 6 from 9 this week, which was enough to see it remain atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard by two tips, now ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSSBODS_Marg, and RSMP_Simple (who tipped the card).
Read More2020 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders Update
/With all but one of the Totals markets now posted, MoSSBODS has no interest in any further wagers.
THURSDAY UPDATE
The Totals market for the final game of the round is now up and, while it looks very low according to the MoS twins. forecast rain means that we’ll not be taking the opportunity for an overs bet.
2020 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay Update
/So, MoSHPlay is thinking Lions by 10.
Read More2020 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders
/With markets posted for only two of the seven games so far, this will be a relatively brief blog entry, with updates to come.
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