If any of your friends or colleagues build statistical models for a living and pretend that they don’t hurt when their preferred models let them down, I’ll let you in on a secret: they’re lying, it hurts, and quite a bit.
Read MoreThe final two Totals markets have now been posted and are included in the table below.
Read MoreIt’s (still) GWS by 25 tonight, according to MoSHPlay, and now Geelong by 1 point in tomorrow’s game.
Read MoreNew leaders on both Systems this week, as Port Adelaide rockets up 4 spots on MossBODS to retake top spot their, and Geelong climbs two spots on MoSHBODS to claim top spot under that System.
MoSSBODS has Geelong in 2nd, and Brisbane Lions in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Port Adelaide and Richmond in those places.
Read MoreJust seven of the nine games have Totals markets at this point, and these are shown below.
Read MoreAll of the line and head-to-head markets have now been posted, which means we can finalise tips and wagers (except over/under) for all nine games.
Here’s what the forecasts look like.
Read MoreIt’s far too late at night and early in the morning to be fully cogent, so let’s just get straight into the forecasts that we have, given that markets for some of the later games are not yet posted.
Read MoreIn the end, it was a pretty easy round to tip winners, and with relatively few contrarian tips, that meant (with the draw) we finished with Head-to-Head Tipsters recording either 5.5 or 6.5 from 8.
Read MoreMoSHPlay is, relatively speaking, very keen about the Cats’ and the Hawks’ chances.
Read MoreWith markets now available for all of the games, we’re able to finalise the round’s tips and wagers for everyone except MoSHPlay.
Read MoreWhen Ratings are compressed, it doesn’t take much to see teams move multiple places, and this week saw There’s major upheaval again at the top of the MoS Team Ratings, with Richmond now holding 1st on both Systems, ahead of Collingwood and Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and ahead of Port Adelaide and Geelong on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreJust six of the eight games have Totals markets at this point, and these are shown below.
Read MoreIf this end a round on one day and start the next on the following day becomes a thing in the future, I’m going to need to seriously reconsider running this blog …
So far, markets have only been framed for 7 of the 8 eight games, so those are the only 7 we’ll consider here. I’ll update in a separate blog, once the final markets are framed.
Read MoreMoSHPlay_Marg bagged 6 from 9 this week, which was enough to see it remain atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard by two tips, now ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSSBODS_Marg, and RSMP_Simple (who tipped the card).
Read MoreWith all but one of the Totals markets now posted, MoSSBODS has no interest in any further wagers.
The Totals market for the final game of the round is now up and, while it looks very low according to the MoS twins. forecast rain means that we’ll not be taking the opportunity for an overs bet.
So, MoSHPlay is thinking Lions by 10.
Read MoreWith markets posted for only two of the seven games so far, this will be a relatively brief blog entry, with updates to come.
Read MoreYes, it’s me, back again. I didn’t create this fixturing …
In this round’s business-days only fare, which ends on Friday, the bookmakers have six of the seven games finishing with a double-digit margin and only the Tigers v Lions game expected to be closer than that.
Read MoreWhen Ratings are compressed, it doesn’t take much to see teams move multiple places, and this week saw MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS move eight teams by 2 spots or more.
That included their previous Number 1s, Collingwood, who now find themselves in 4th.
Port Adelaide returned to the top on both Systems, now ahead of Richmond and Brisbane Lions.
Read MoreMoSHPlay_Marg bagged 7 from 9 this week to take it two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and MoSSBODS_Marg on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.9 from 9, dragged down again by Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder.
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