Seven of this week’s nine games are expected by the bookmakers to be won by less than two goals, and the only thing dragging the all-game average up to 9.9 points per game is the relatively comfortable, five goalish victory that the Eagles are expected to record.
Read MorePort Adelaide still tops both MoS Systems, though now trailed by Brisbane Lions and Collingwood on MoSSBODS and the same two teams, but in the opposite order, on MoSHBODS.
The Bottom 2 on both Systems remain Gold Coast and Adelaide.
Read MoreThis week, tipping winners was a little easier than last week, but tipping margins was considerably harder.
Read MoreMoSHPlay pretty much going with the crowd at this point for tomorrow night’s Blues v Saints clash. Saints by 4.
Read MoreThe bookmakers appear to have come around to the MoS way of thinking, at least as far as totals are concerned, and have produced per game averages remarkably similar to our own.
Read MoreIt’s not often I wake up on a Monday and discover that the preparation I’d done the night before has been wasted because the games my models had forecasted are no longer the games being played.
But that, in a proverbial nutshell, is 2020.
Read MorePort Adelaide now tops, and Adelaide tails, both MoS Team Rating Systems.
In fact, the two Systems now have the same Top 3 and Bottom 4 teams, and disagree about the rest by no more than two places - and the difference is even that large only for Carlton, who are 7th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreNotwithstanding the 25% reduction in game length, which should logically lessen the likelihood of huge forecasting errors, sub-16 mean absolute errors (MAEs) are something to behold.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has it as Sydney by 4 for the Thursday night game
Read MoreWe’ve markets now for the Essendon v Carlton game and, as a result, have our first overs bet for the season. The overlay is just 7 points so we’ll be hoping that the forecast absence of rain is accurate.
So, with the Dons v Blues game now firmly on, and head-to-head and line markets now posted by the bookmakers, we can include that Saturday game in the mix.
The forecasts are as below and show the MoS twins both opting for the underdog Blues, and single-digit margins predictions across the board.
Read MoreLast week was another good one for MoS score forecasts, with the twins’ generally more pessimistic views about the level of scoring tending to prevail overall. This week the twins are, again, on average forecasting lower totals than the bookmakers.
Read MoreWith 26 games now played and a relatively low-scoring Round 3, the average score per team per game now stands at just over 65 points, which is just under 81% of the 80.4 points average for the 2019 home and season.
So, for now, the 80% adjustment to all forecasts stays in force.
Read MorePort Adelaide did just enough to retain its number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS this week, but not quite enough to do the same on MoSHBODS where Collingwood now hold down top spot.
Read MoreI’m not a fan of byes at the best of times, even less so when they’re announced mid-round, but it seemed fairly inevitable that at least one of the 400 plus players would test positive at some point during the 2020 season.
Regardless, the solid performance of the MoS trio made for a fun weekend.
Read MoreMoSHPlay has again forecast a close Thursday night game, this time opting for the Tigers by only 4 points over the Hawks.
Read MoreAll things considered, our over/under forecasts have been pretty good so far this season, so here’s another set of them for Round 3.
Read MoreIn the 18 games we’ve had so far, scoring has been about 85% of what it was in the corresponding fixtures last season, so it might be that, in a few weeks time, we revisit the assumption underpinning a lot of the model forecasts that scoring in 16-minute quarters will be 80% of that in 20-minute quarters. For now, though, the 80% assumption stands.
It’s also way too early to be making any calls about home ground advantage, so the implicit assumption that it too is 80% of its normal value also still applies.
Read MorePort Adelaide, with its 75-point win over Adelaide, completed its rapid rating climb over the weekend, moving from 3rd to 1st on both MoS Rating Systems.
Read MoreWhen Home Sweet Home (HSH) outtips Bookie Knows Best (BKB) you know it’s been a challenging week to tip winners.
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