There’s virtually nothing separating the forecasts of the MoS twins and the two bookmakers this week.

The bookmakers have the Tigers as about 3-goal favourites over the Giants, and there’s not a great deal of disagreement coming from any of the forecasters about that assessment.

GWS rose to 3rd on MoSSBODS and to 5th on MoSHBODS this week after it made small rating gains on both Systems at the expense of Collingwood. The only other moves were Geelong and Collingwood each falling one spot on MoSSBODS, and Hawthorn falling one spot on MoSHBODS.

According to MoSSBODS, then, the Grand Final pits 1st versus 3rd while, according to MoSHBODS, it pits 1st versus 5th. MoSSBODS rates the Tigers as 1.7 Scoring Shots, or about a goal, stronger than GWS at a neutral venue, while MoSHBODS has the Tigers as 7.5 points stronger.

With the 2019 Preliminary Finals now completed, let’s have another look at how teams from different home-and-away ladder positions have fared in Finals since 2000.

All of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged 1 from 2 correct tips this week, with the exception of Consult The Ladder, who bagged neither.

That means ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple are capable of finishing level with Bookie Knows Best should they successfully tip an upset victory in the Grand Final.

On the assumption that Langdon is named as Greene’s replacement, MoSHPlay has the Pies as just over 4-goal favourites. That compares with MoSHBODS’ assessment of a 10-point Pies win.

In the other game, MoSHPlay has assessed the Tigers as about 5-point favourites, while MoSHBODS has them winning by about 1 point less.

We have in prospect two Semi-Finals expected to produce victory margins of less than a goal and in which both underdogs are estimated as having 40 to 45% chances of progressing to a Preliminary Final.

With the 2019 semi-finals now completed, let’s have another look at how teams from different home-and-away ladder positions have fared in Finals since 2000.

Neither MoSSBODS nor MoSHBODS re-ranked any team this week, leaving the two of them with the following rankings of the Preliminary Finalists:

• Richmond: 1st on both

• Geelong: 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS

• Collingwood: 4th on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS

• GWS: 5th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS

Scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters ranged from 1 to 3 this week, which saw some movement on the Leaderboard, but left Bookie Knows Best still two tips clear at the top, now on 135 from 202 (67%).

MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS both have the Cats as 2-goal favourites, but MoSHPlay has the Lions as much narrower winners than does MoSHBODS.

The MoS twins are this week forecasting slightly higher totals than the bookmakers in the Friday game (where there is some prospect of gain), and roughly the same total as the bookmakers in the Saturday game (where no rain is forecast).

We have in prospect two Semi-Finals expected to produce victory margins of less than a goal and in which both underdogs are estimated as having 40 to 45% chances of progressing to a Preliminary Final.

With one week of the 2019 Finals Series now completed, let’s have a look at how teams from different home-and-away ladder positions have fared in Finals since 2000.

Both MoS Systems still have Richmond as their number one team after the 1st week of the Finals, but MoSSBODS has left the Brisbane Lions in 2nd, where MoSHBODS has dropped them two places into 8th.

MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is rounded out by Geelong, while MoSHBODS’ has the Cats in 2nd, and Collingwood in 3rd.

Scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters ranged from 1 to 3 this week, which saw some movement on the Leaderboard, but left Bookie Knows Best still two tips clear at the top, now on 135 from 202 (67%).

Not a lot of difference between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS in the first final, with MoSHPlay favouring the Eagles by 30 points compared to MoSHBODS’ 25.

As a number of you pointed out, last week’s blog about likely scoring was written under the misapprehension that the first week of the Finals was not this week, but last.

So, I’ve decided to re-examine the markets today (Tuesday), which is two days before the first game of the round, and therefore more in keeping with our usual practice. There’s been movement in three of the TAB, and two of the Easybet totals, and movement in one of the Easybet line markets.

The MoS twins are this week forecasting slightly higher totals than the bookmakers in every game, most of all in the two games most likely to be rain-affected.

The expected margins in three of the four weekend Finals are under 7 points, leaving Thursday’s Eagles v Dons game as the only one threatening to be uncompetitive. Even in that game, however, the Dons are still assessed as about 1 in 4 chances of progressing.