The average bookmaker handicap for Round 21 is 21.9 points per game, the highest it’s been for a single round since Round 11, and the second-highest for any round this season. That’s in keeping with history where the last few rounds have typically had higher-than-average expected margins.

Richmond took 1st place on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, relegating the Lions into 2nd on MoSSBODS, and the Giants into 2nd on MoSHBODS.

That left the two Systems with the same Top 3, but with 2nd and 3rd reversed.

Bookie Knows Best took a one tip lead on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard this week as all 10 of the Tipsters recorded scores of either 6 or 7 from 9. It’s now on 113 from 171 (66%).

Behind BKB, the RSMP twins now find themselves in a tie for 2nd with ENS_Linear on 112 from 171 (65.5%), and a tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 110 from 171 (64%).

There are five games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by about a goal or more:

• Collingwood v Gold Coast: MoSHPlay Pies by 54; MoSHBODS Pies by 41

• Fremantle v Geelong: MoSHPlay Cats by 26; MoSHBODS Cats by 13

• Adelaide v St Kilda: MoSHPlay Crows by 33; MoSHBODS Crows by 23

• Essendon v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Dons by 0.02; MoSHBODS Dons by 8

• Melbourne v Richmond: MoSHPlay Tigers by 14; MoSHBODS Tigers by 19

The only game in which MoSHPlay is tipping a different winner than is MoSHBODS is in the North Melbourne v Hawthorn game, where MoSHPlay favours Hawthorn by 4 points, and MoSHBODS favours North Melbourne by 2 points.

The MoS twins are slightly more pessimistic about the likely average level of scoring this week, their average of 161 points per game about 2 points per game lower than the bookmakers’.

Round 20 sees the average bookmaker handicap at 19.1 points per game, the highest it’s been for a single round since Round 16, but a relatively low average by historical standards for a Round 19, nonetheless.

That average is a result of 6 games having an expected margin of greater than 3 goals, and just 1 game having an expected margin less than 2 goals.

The 2019 all-season average now stands at 17.0 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game below the 2018 average. Traditionally, Rounds 21 through 23 have had somewhat higher expected margins, so it’ll be interesting to see if this year is any different.

On MoSSBODS this week, Richmond and GWS traded 2nd and 3rd behind Brisbane Lions, while, on MoSHBODS, Geelong grabbed 3rd from Brisbane Lions, and GWS and Richmond retained 1st and 2nd.

That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Tigers, and Giants (separated by only 0.8 Scoring Shots), and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Giants, Tigers and Cats (separated by 5.7 points).

MoSHPlay had another week to forget, amongst other things bagging just 4 from 9 as a Head-to-Head Tipster to see it tumble from equal 1st place on the Leaderboard into 6th and now three clear tips behind the leading pack of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, each of which snagged 7 from 9.

There are three games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by more than a goal:

• Collingwood v Richmond: MoSHPlay Pies by 11; MoSHBODS Tigers by 6

• Port Adelaide v GWS: MoSHPlay Port by 5; MoSHBODS Giants by 3

• Sydney v Geelong: MoSHPlay Cats by 14; MoSHBODS Cats by 7

Apart from the Pies v Tigers, and Port v Giants games just listed, MoSHPlay is also tipping, contrary to MoSHBODS, the Hawks to beat the Lions, and the Dees to beat the Saints (in all cases, pending the finalisation of teams).

There are likely to be some big moves on the MoS Leaderboards this week.

In aggregate, there’s close to accord between the MoS twins and the bookmakers this week, though again some differences that exceed 6 points in size.

The average expected margin for Round 19, according to the bookmakers early in the week, is just 14.1 points per game, eclipsing Round 18, and recording the new lowest average for any round since Round 14, and the lowest for any nine-game round since Round 10. It’s also the lowest average for a Round 19 across the period we’re analysing, and almost seven points below the all-season average for Round 19s across that same period.

That low average has come about because seven of the nine games have an expected margin of less than 15 points, and an eighth has an expected margin of just over 4 goals. But for the 39.5 point margin in the Suns v Dons game, we might well have had a record low for the season.

Brisbane Lions retained top spot on MoSSBODS this week, ahead of GWS and Richmond, and moved up one place on MoSHBODS into 3rd, behind GWS and Richmond

In other moves on MoSSBODS, Hawthorn climbed 4 places into 6th, St Kilda climbed 3 places into 14th, North Melbourne dropped 3 places into 8th, and the Western Bulldogs plummeted 6 places into 12th. No other team moved by more than 2 places.

On MoSHBODS, no team at all moved by more than 2 places.

Not a great round for MoSHPlay, in any of its forms, which allowed, for starters, Bookie Knows Best, the RSMP twins, and ENS_Linear to join it atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard. Those five are now on 99 from 153 (65%).

There are three games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by more than a goal:

• Richmond v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Port by 1; MoSHBODS Tigers by 14

• Geelong v Hawthorn: MoSHPlay Cats by 19; MoSHBODS Cats by 10

• Carlton v Gold Coast: MoSHPlay Blues by 35; MoSHBODS Blues by 27

That Port Adelaide call from MoSHPlay looks to be a brave one, but is consistent with MoSHPlay’s relatively low rating of the Richmond list (which led to the ill-fated call that they’d lose to the Giants last week). That Tigers v Port game is the only one where MoSHPlay and MoSSBODS are tipping different winners.

This week looks very similar to last week, with the MoS twins, on average, forecasting slightly lower totals than the bookmakers, though still differing by non-trivial amounts in a number of games.

The average expected margin for Round 18 is just 16.3 points per game, the lowest for any round since Round 14, and the lowest for any nine-game round since Round 10. It’s also the second-lowest average for a Round 18 across the period we’re analysing, and nine points below the all-season average for Round 18s across that same period.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both elevated Brisbane Lions this week, MoSSBODS by one spot into 1st, and MoSHBODS by four spots into 4th.

MoSSBODS, in fact, shuffled a large number of teams in its top half, which left GWS in 2nd, behind the Lions, Richmond in 3rd, and Geelong in 4th. MoSHBODS, in contrast, left its Top 3 unchanged as GWS, Geelong and then Richmond.

In a round that, if anything, made it less certain which team is currently the best in the competition, just six of nine favourites won.

There’s a little more disagreement between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS this week, but not much, with the margin forecasts differing only by amounts ranging from about 1 to 10 points, the largest of them being:

• Geelong v St Kilda: MoSHPlay Cats by 50; MoSHBODS Cats by 40

• Gold Coast v Adelaide: MoSHPlay Crows by 46; MoSHBODS Crows by 37

• Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions: MoSHPlay Port by 26; MoSHBODS Port by 19

In only one game are MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS tipping different winners - the Essendon v North Melbourne game, which MoSHPlay has Essendon winning by 2, and MoSHBODS has North Melbourne winning by 4.

In something of a return to a milder version of the early parts of the season this week, the MoS twins are forecasting generally lower scores than the bookmakers, but overall only by a few points.