GWS, despite losing to Essendon this week, generated 21 scoring shots to the Dons’ 17, which was just enough to see MoSSBODS give them a pass mark and leave their Combined Rating essentially unchanged. MoSHBODS was less forgiving, however, and did drop the Giants’ Rating, but not enough to tip them out of 1st place.

Both Systems still have the same Top 2 then of GWS and Geelong, but MoSSBODS has the Roos in 3rd while MoSHBODS has retained Collingwood in that position.

There were no dramatic moves on the MoS Leaderboards this week, as the Head-to-Head Tipsters were separated by just one tip, the Margin Predictors by just 1.7 points per game, and the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors turned in very similar, slightly negative log probability scores.

MoSHPlay hasn’t fallen far from the tree with its forecast of a Giants victory by 14 points over the Dons, which is only 1 point different from its mentor’s, MoSHBODS, forecast.

This week, all nine totals markets were up when I checked at 2pm. Different week, different process, I guess.

The MoS twins have very similar views about the likely average total score across those nine contests, their average total coming within a point of the bookmakers’, but there are a number of individual games where the differences are starker.

Asking around, the politest explanation for this absence is forgetfulness, but were I running a multi-billion dollar enterprise I reckon I’d not accept that, as a boss, as a reasonable excuse. Those of you who’ve followed me for a while I hope might recognise that I’m, if anything, a forgiving soul. but this is, frankly, more than a bit embarrassing.

Anyway, on the assumption that this is correct, we have the MoS twins and the two bookmakers in complete agreement in terms of average totals.

Back to nine games for this week’s round, which always seems a much larger than 50% increase when you’re doing the data input.

No game this week has a bookmaker handicap of less than two goals, and only one has a handicap of much more than four, which has made for an all-game average of just over 20 points per game.

Geelong and Collingwood both saw their Combined Ratings decline this week on both Systems, which allowed GWS to extend its lead to 2.4 Scoring Shots over Geelong on MoSSBODS, and 6.8 points over Geelong on MoSHBODS.

Both Systems now have the same Top 3 of GWS, Geelong, and Collingwood, though, after that, the rankings become a lot more contentious.

In any other year, an all-Predictor average mean absolute error (MAE) of 21.5 points per game would be exceptional but, given the crazy-low MAEs we’ve seen earlier in the season, it’s hard not to feel just a little bit disappointed.

As I write this, the TAB is still to post a Totals market on the Saints v Lions game (and a bunch of other markets, besides), so for now I’ve assumed they’ll eventually put up a total close to, or the same as, Easybet’s. That’s certainly a reasonable extrapolation from what we’ve seen so far this round, but it is slightly weird that there’s no actual market from them.

Asking around, the politest explanation for this absence is forgetfulness, but were I running a multi-billion dollar enterprise I reckon I’d not accept that, as a boss, as a reasonable excuse. Those of you who’ve followed me for a while I hope might recognise that I’m, if anything, a forgiving soul. but this is, frankly, more than a bit embarrassing.

Anyway, on the assumption that this is correct, we have the MoS twins and the two bookmakers in complete agreement in terms of average totals.

You might, legitimately, have a contrary position, but I confess to be startled for the second week running that a league that's decided to schedule 6 games for the entire round might choose to put one of them on a Thursday night.

This week is the last of the short rounds for the season, and forecasters again face a challenging, if truncated, set of conundrums (or, equally correctly, conundra).

With the teams second and third on the Ratings ladders - viz, the Pies and the Cats - both having a bye this weekend, GWS had the chance to extend its lead over the pair, which it did under MoSHBODS but not under MoSSBODS where a 3 scoring shot victory was deemed to be insufficiently large to justify the estimated pre-game difference in abilities.

Six of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters correctly selected all six winners this week, aided by the fact that all half-dozen of them were the favourites. That left the Leaderboard with MoSHPlay_Marg atop it on 76 from 111 (69%), three tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.

It seems a little too soon to me, but here we are late on a Wednesday night contemplating an Over/Under market for a game tomorrow night. Spreading six games across four days rather than three (or even two) seems a bit ill-considered to me, but I don’t fully understand the economics of that decision.

Just the one game with named teams at this point, and it sees MoSHPlay coming down heavily in favour of the home team Crows. MoSHPlay has them winning by 36 points, which is 19 points more than MoSHBODS’ expected margin.

It’s conceivable - though admittedly unlikely - that all six underdogs could win this week, since the average expected margin has come in at just 9.8 points per game. All but one the favourites - Adelaide - is expected to win by less than 2 goals, and two of them by only about 1 goal or less.

Despite losing to Adelaide, GWS retained top spot on both MoS Rating Systems, though Collingwood closed the gap to GWS to just 2.2 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, while a newly-installed-in-2nd-place Geelong finds itself just 7.3 points behind GWS on MoSHBODS.

MoSHPlay tipped four winners this week, one more than every other Head-to-Head Tipster except MoSHBODS_Marg, C_Marg, and Home Sweet Home, to leave it now two tips clear at the head of the Leaderboard and on 70 from 105 (67%).

This week’s biggest differences between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are, for now, the following:

• Difference 20 points: Tigers v Cats (MoSHPlay Cats by 22; MoSHBODS Cats by 2)

• Difference 8 points: Suns v Roos (MoSHPlay Roos by 20; MoSHBODS Roos by 12)

• Difference 7 points: Pies v Dees (MoSHPlay Pies by 27; MoSHBODS Pies by 20)

Note that MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are currently tipping the same winner in every game.

This week, I think for the first time this season, the MoS twins find themselves forecasting higher totals, on average, than do the bookmakers.

A return to forecasts suggesting close games this week, with none of the contests expected to be decided by much more than 3 goals, and half of the six games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals. The week’s average has come in at 14.0 points per game, which is the second-lowest average of the season.