Just two underdog wins this week, and none of the Head-to-Head Tipster front-runners tipping either sees the round finish with ENS_Linear still two tips clear and now on 110.5 from 153 (72%).

We seem now to have settled into a collective view - shared by the MoS twins and bookmakers alike - that the new normal is rounds of AFL football producing average total scores somewhere around the mid 160s.

This week comprises four games where the expected margin is under two goals, and five more where it's five goals or more, which has landed the all-game average at just under 27 points per game, the third-highest average for a round in the season to date.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS had different opinions about what the Giants v Tigers game revealed of the relative abilities of those two teams, MoSSBODS focusing solely on the Tigers' superior scoring shot count, but MoSHBODS also looking at the final score.

Only four favourites won this week and just two of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters - C_Marg and Home Sweet Home - managed to tip one of the upsets.

Another weekend of relatively low scores seems to be in prospect, with only one or perhaps two games likely to see over 170 points scored, and only one or two teams likely to register three-digit scores.

Two games this weekend have an expected margin in single digits, and two more have expected margins of around two goals. The largest expected margin - for the Dees v Dogs game - is about 33 points, which leaves the majority of games in the two to four-and-a-half goal range and has produced the lowest average TAB Bookmaker margin since Round 13. It's 17.9 points per game this week.

Richmond held top spot on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this weekend, doing about as well as both Systems expected in their game against Adelaide.

Sydney were the only favourites to lose this week, which combined with low levels of disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, made for high scores. Seven of the Tipsters scored eight, and none scored lower than Home Sweet Home's six, resulting in an all-Tipster average of 7.7 from 9.

Last weekend's unexpectedly high-scoring round has done little to raise hopes for a repeat this weekend where we find both bookmakers' average expected margin coming in at just 166 points per game. 

Only one game this weekend has an expected margin in single digits - the Essendon v Collingwood game - and four of them are expected to be decided by five goals or more, so impartial followers might be in for a disappointingly one-sided round.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were both far less impressed with the Pies' win over the Suns than they were with the Tigers' over the Swans, which meant that the gaps between the Tigers and the Pies at the head of the respective rating leaderboards increased this week.

Only five favourites were victorious this weekend, and ENS_Linear managed to tip one of the four upsets, thereby extending its lead to two tips at the head of the MoS Leaderboard. It's now on 91.5 from 126 (73%). None of the other Head-to-Head Tipsters did better than 5 from 9, and the all-Tipster average came in at 4.4.

The Melbourne v St Kilda game is this week's best hope at producing a total over 170 points according to all four of our forecasters, though in the case of the two bookmakers it's the only game of the nine more likely than not to do so.

This week sees a return to nine game rounds and feels an appropriate point at which to decide that we are officially 'in the run home'.

Beating Carlton by only 20 points and 10 Scoring Shots wasn't quite enough to convince either of the MoS Systems to raise Collingwood's rating this week, with the result that they now find themselves rated 3 Scoring Shots and about 11 points lower than Richmond.

Five of six favourites won this week, which kept the all-Tipster average high across the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and a general lack of disagreement allowed ENS_Linear to retain its one tip lead over Bookie Knows Best at the head of the Leaderboard.

If the bookmakers are right, not a single game should be expected to generate more than 168 points over this elongated in time and truncated in content weekend of football.

Just six more games this weekend, but only one with a single-digit expected margin and five with expected margins of roughly four goals or more. Unless you're a fan of one of the firm favourites or these pre-game expectations prove to be wrong, this round could get fairly ugly, fairly quickly from an aesthetic viewpoint.

Richmond didn't do quite enough this week to impress either of the MoS twins and so saw its rating lead over Collingwood cut on both Systems, albeit by only small amounts. Richmond is now about a 2.7 Scoring Shot or 10 point better side that Collingwood, according to the Systems' ratings.