2017 - Round 21 Results - ENS_Linear Tips the Card
/For the first time this season, one of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, ENS_Linear, has picked the right team in every contest.
Read More2017 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders Update
/Six teams are considered likely to score 100 points or more this weekend according to at least one of the four forecasters.
Read More2017 - Round 21 : The Keys to the Finals
/Expected victory margins are a little higher this week, though still at historically low levels. You really do have to keep reminding yourself just how extraordinarily even this season has been. (I should write an article about that ...)
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 20
/Adelaide and Sydney put some space between themselves and the other 16 teams over the weekend after convincing wins over other top 6 ranked teams. They are now ranked 1st and 2nd, in that order, on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.
Read More2017 - Round 20 Results - Eight Favourites
/All but one of the mid-week favourites won this weekend, which made for high scores amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, the all-Tipster average finishing at 7.1 from 9.
Read More2017 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders Update
/This week, the TAB over/under markets went up over about a 45 minute period, which makes last week's delays all the more strange.
What we have is consensus across all four forecasters that the Western Bulldogs will score over 100 points and be the round's high-scorer this week, and near-consensus - with MoSHBODS the lone dissenter - that Collingwood will be the only other team to register three figures.
Read More2017 - Round 20 : Regression to the (New) Mean
/This week it's a return to a menu full of games expected to be decided by three goals or less, with only three games not fitting that description according to the bookmakers.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/Sydney, by virtue of sinking more slowly than their nearest rivals, have retained top spot on MoSSBODS' Ratings this week, whilst Adelaide have employed the same tactic to snatch 2nd from Port Adelaide.
Read More2017 - Round 19 Results - Still Close
/Five favourites won this week and one drew (after spotting their opponents a 50 point lead - welcome to the 2017 AFL season). With relatively low levels of disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors, that made for a narrow range of scores (5.5 to 6.5 from 9), which left MoSSBODS_Marg two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 102 from 162 (63%).
Read More2017 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders Update II
/The final overs/unders market - for the Gold Coast v Richmond game - was posted on the TAB late this afternoon and wound up being only a single point different from Centrebet's.
So, as we anticipated, no bet in that game.
For completeness' sake, here are the final comparative tables.
For commentary, see yesterday's post (and ignore the snark at the top).
2017 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders Update I
/For reasons that are apparent only to the TAB Bookmakers (and, I'll be honest, I'm guessing probably not even to the professional market-framers amongst them) we're still waiting for an Overs/Unders market to be made available for the Suns v Tigers game this week. There's no apparent threat of rain, there are markets in many of the other major bookmakers, and yet they're coy about their reasons for failing to frame a market.
Read More2017 - Round 19 : Low-Risk Forecasting
/After a week where the bookmakers expected a slew of closely-fought contests, this week sees the average TAB handicap out to almost 23 points per game, which is the third-highest average for a round this season.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/Sydney have now floated to the top of MoSSBODS Ratings ahead of Port Adelaide and Adelaide, though they remain 2nd behind Adelaide and ahead of Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.
Read More2017 - Round 18 Results - Can You Hear the MoS Twins Sing?
/Tonight, I sat back and tried to be a little objective about the season so far and how, in particular, the MoS twins have fared, bereft as they are of bookmaker or player information.
Read More2017 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders Update
/This week, it's MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS that are a little more bullish about the prospects for higher Totals, though even they expect the average Total to come in at under 180 points per game.
Read More2017 - Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever?
/I've been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week - 12.9 points per game - is the lowest it's been for any home and away round during that period.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/There were no changes to the Top 3 teams on MoSSBODS or MoSHBODS this week, the first ranking change for MoSSBODS occurring at position 4, now occupied by GWS, and the first for MoSHBODS occurring at position 6, now occupied by Essendon after a four-spot climb.
Read More2017 - Round 17 Results - MoSHBODS Responds
/The MoS twins had excellent Round 17s, MoSSBODS_Marg returning a competition-best 8 from 9 amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters and the second-best mean absolute error (MAE) amongst the Margin Predictors, behind only MoSHBODS_Marg's 21.3 points per game.
Read More2017 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders Update
/Despite last week's average Total score of almost 190 points per game, our four forecasters are back this week suggesting that the average for Round 17 will be about 10 points per game lower.
Read More2017 - Round 17 : Can MoSHBODS Regroup?
/The two RSMP forecasters took 1st and 2nd places on the Head-to-Head Tipster and Margin Predictor Leaderboards last weekend, in the latter case displacing MoSHBODS_Marg after an 8-week unbroken stint in the top position.
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