2017 - Round 20 : Regression to the (New) Mean
/This week it's a return to a menu full of games expected to be decided by three goals or less, with only three games not fitting that description according to the bookmakers.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/Sydney, by virtue of sinking more slowly than their nearest rivals, have retained top spot on MoSSBODS' Ratings this week, whilst Adelaide have employed the same tactic to snatch 2nd from Port Adelaide.
Read More2017 - Round 19 Results - Still Close
/Five favourites won this week and one drew (after spotting their opponents a 50 point lead - welcome to the 2017 AFL season). With relatively low levels of disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors, that made for a narrow range of scores (5.5 to 6.5 from 9), which left MoSSBODS_Marg two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 102 from 162 (63%).
Read More2017 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders Update II
/The final overs/unders market - for the Gold Coast v Richmond game - was posted on the TAB late this afternoon and wound up being only a single point different from Centrebet's.
So, as we anticipated, no bet in that game.
For completeness' sake, here are the final comparative tables.
For commentary, see yesterday's post (and ignore the snark at the top).
2017 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders Update I
/For reasons that are apparent only to the TAB Bookmakers (and, I'll be honest, I'm guessing probably not even to the professional market-framers amongst them) we're still waiting for an Overs/Unders market to be made available for the Suns v Tigers game this week. There's no apparent threat of rain, there are markets in many of the other major bookmakers, and yet they're coy about their reasons for failing to frame a market.
Read More2017 - Round 19 : Low-Risk Forecasting
/After a week where the bookmakers expected a slew of closely-fought contests, this week sees the average TAB handicap out to almost 23 points per game, which is the third-highest average for a round this season.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/Sydney have now floated to the top of MoSSBODS Ratings ahead of Port Adelaide and Adelaide, though they remain 2nd behind Adelaide and ahead of Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.
Read More2017 - Round 18 Results - Can You Hear the MoS Twins Sing?
/Tonight, I sat back and tried to be a little objective about the season so far and how, in particular, the MoS twins have fared, bereft as they are of bookmaker or player information.
Read More2017 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders Update
/This week, it's MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS that are a little more bullish about the prospects for higher Totals, though even they expect the average Total to come in at under 180 points per game.
Read More2017 - Round 18 : Hardest Round Ever?
/I've been collecting complete TAB Bookmaker data on the line market since 2012, and the average expected victory margin this week - 12.9 points per game - is the lowest it's been for any home and away round during that period.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/There were no changes to the Top 3 teams on MoSSBODS or MoSHBODS this week, the first ranking change for MoSSBODS occurring at position 4, now occupied by GWS, and the first for MoSHBODS occurring at position 6, now occupied by Essendon after a four-spot climb.
Read More2017 - Round 17 Results - MoSHBODS Responds
/The MoS twins had excellent Round 17s, MoSSBODS_Marg returning a competition-best 8 from 9 amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters and the second-best mean absolute error (MAE) amongst the Margin Predictors, behind only MoSHBODS_Marg's 21.3 points per game.
Read More2017 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders Update
/Despite last week's average Total score of almost 190 points per game, our four forecasters are back this week suggesting that the average for Round 17 will be about 10 points per game lower.
Read More2017 - Round 17 : Can MoSHBODS Regroup?
/The two RSMP forecasters took 1st and 2nd places on the Head-to-Head Tipster and Margin Predictor Leaderboards last weekend, in the latter case displacing MoSHBODS_Marg after an 8-week unbroken stint in the top position.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/Port Adelaide's victory over West Coast was just comprehensive enough, in Scoring Shot terms, relative to Sydney's win over the Gold Coast to see Port reclaim top spot on MoSSBODS.
Read More2017 - Round 16 Results - Climbing On a Ladder
/This week, it turns out, one of the best ways of tipping winners would've been to glance at the pre-round competition ladder, as seven of the eight winners started the round ahead of the teams they eventually defeated.
Read More2017 - Round 16 : Overs/Unders Update
/This week the four forecasters foresee lower average scores, reflecting recent history which has seen average Totals fall below 179 points per game in every round since Round 7. Last week's average of 168.1 points per game was the second-lowest of the season, above only the 165.3 points per game in Round 13.
Read More2017 - Round 16 : Still in the Fog
/Normally, at this point in the season, some semblance of an order emerges and you feel as though most games in most rounds will adhere to a familiar script. Sure there'll be the odd fluffed line and lighting mishap, but the play will be performed largely as written. This year, it's all improv, all the time.
Read More2017 - Team Ratings After Round 15
/In a season that will surely be remembered for its unpredictability, how apt it is that MoSSBODS should finish the weekend with Sydney, very narrowly, as its number 1 team.
Read More2017 - Round 15 Results - Much as I Expected
/It was, as we predicted, a fairly unpredictable round, with only two favourites emerging victorious and another snatching a draw.
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