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April 25, 2017

2017 - Round 5 Results - MoSHBODS Snatches the Lead

April 25, 2017/ Tony Corke

This (extended) weekend, eight of the nine winners were ranked higher on the competition ladder than their opponents going into the round, but only seven were favourites. As a result, Consult The Ladder (CTL) recorded its equal-best single round result of the season so far.

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April 25, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 19, 2017

2017 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders Update

April 19, 2017/ Tony Corke

Of course they did; of course they did.

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April 19, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 2 Comments
April 18, 2017

2017 - Round 5 : Relative Calm

April 18, 2017/ Tony Corke

Monday football makes for busy weeks at the MoS Factory and seemingly no gap between one round and the next.

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April 18, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 17, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 4

April 17, 2017/ Tony Corke

It's instructive this week to see how MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS have treated the results for Adelaide and GWS.

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April 17, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 17, 2017

2017 - Round 4 Results - MoSHBODS Continues to Challenge

April 17, 2017/ Tony Corke

As regular readers of this blog will know, one of the aspects of the 2017 season that I was particularlylooking forward to was the battle between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and between both of them and the other MoS forecasters, especially those based on the TAB Bookmaker's opinions.

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April 17, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 13, 2017

2017 - Round 4 : ChiPS Reconsiders Two Games

April 13, 2017/ Tony Corke

ChiPS has had a rethink about the Carlton v Gold Coast, and Hawthorn v Geelong games (now that I've told it about the result of last week's Gold Coast v Hawthorn game ...)

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April 13, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 2 Comments
April 13, 2017

2017 - Round 4 : Over/Under Update

April 13, 2017/ Tony Corke

I'm currently facing a set of mutually incompatible objectives in my over/under wagering and its chronicling here on the blog.

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April 13, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 4 Comments
April 11, 2017

2017 - Round 4 : ChiPS Doubles Down

April 11, 2017/ Tony Corke

ChiPS has continued its run of contrarian forecasts this week.

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April 11, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 10, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 3

April 10, 2017/ Tony Corke

Adelaide continues to impress MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and remains as the number 1 team for both, variously considered as a +7.4 Scoring Shot better-than-average team by MoSSBODS and a +27.1 point better-than-average team by MoSHBODS when playing at a neutral venue against an average team.

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April 10, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 09, 2017

2017 - Round 3 Results - It Depends On What You Look At

April 09, 2017/ Tony Corke

It's almost always a tough round for the rational Head-to-Head Tipsters when Home Sweet Home (HSH) records the best performance of all of them. Only MoSSBODS_Marg managed to do almost as well as HSH's 6 from 9, it's 5 from 9 moving it to 16 from 27 (59%) for the season and dragging it into a five-way tie for second behind ENS_Linear's 17 from 27 (63%).

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April 09, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 05, 2017

2017 - Round 3 : Over/Under Update

April 05, 2017/ Tony Corke

The bookmakers have as many as five games producing over 200 points this week, the Saints v Lions game foremost among them where both the TAB and Centrebet have set the total at 206.5.

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April 05, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 04, 2017

2017 - Round 3 : ChiPS Goes Rogue

April 04, 2017/ Tony Corke

We're back to Round 1 levels of disagreement this week, much of this fuelled by Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and by C_Marg and C_Prob elsewhere.

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April 04, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 03, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 2

April 03, 2017/ Tony Corke

Adelaide have retained number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS after their 24-point and 9- Scoring Shot victory over Hawthorn.

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April 03, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 02, 2017

2017 - Round 2 Results - That's Much Better

April 02, 2017/ Tony Corke

After last weekend's inauspicious start, it's a relief to report that all three forecaster families performed far better this week.

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April 02, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 31, 2017

2017 - Round 2 - Updates to Tips and Predictions

March 31, 2017/ Tony Corke

It usually takes a few weeks of a new season to iron out the main bugs in updated and new scripts (and why, exactly, are bugs always 'ironed'?) and to get into the swing of knowing what data goes where. This season has been no exception.

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March 31, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 30, 2017

A Refresher on Overround and Vig

March 30, 2017/ Tony Corke

If you pootle around the MoS website - and, by pootle, I mean search - you'll find a number of posts using the terms 'overround' and 'vig' (or 'vigorish'). Today I want to provide a quick refresher on what those terms mean and why they should be important to you if you ever think about placing wagers of your own.

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March 30, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 29, 2017

2017 - Round 2 : Over/Under Update

March 29, 2017/ Tony Corke

This week, the TAB's over/under markets went up well before Centrebet's, and Centrebet released theirs over an extended period, which means that the data in the table below spans an atypically long timespan since each market has been recorded as close to its opening as I was able.

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March 29, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 3 Comments
March 28, 2017

2017 - Round 2 : Convergence

March 28, 2017/ Tony Corke

It's hard to find a dissenting voice this week amongst the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, with even Home Sweet Home tipping against the favourites in only three games.

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March 28, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 2 Comments
March 27, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 1

March 27, 2017/ Tony Corke

We noted last year that Adelaide, as far as the MoS Team Rating Systems were concerned, were very unlucky not to progress further in the competition. Their big win over GWS this weekend only served to reinforce that view.

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March 27, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 26, 2017

2017 - Round 1 Results - Some Calibration Required

March 26, 2017/ Tony Corke

From an accuracy point-of-view, the first round of 2017 was a poor one for the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, though that's probably to be expected when only four favourites and an equal-favourite prevail.

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March 26, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
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