In this week's truncated round, five of the six home teams have been installed as underdogs by the TAB. Neither the Line Fund nor the Head-to-Head Fund wants anything to do with the lone home team favourite, the Swans, nor are they at all interested in the shortest price of the home team underdogs, the Dogs.
Read MoreJust when we thought - maybe imagined - that team ratings and rankings might've settled down for a while, along comes Round 12 and the MoS Rating Systems collectively say "wait a minute ...".
Read MoreThere are, I'd contend, good losses and bad ones, and their ordering is not entirely determined by their magnitude.
Read MoreMoSSBODS still tends to predict smaller aggregates than does the TAB bookmaker, but this week the difference is under 2 goals in six of the games with the result that the Overs/Unders Fund is only active in three.
Read MoreThe head-to-head prices and handicaps this week, a couple of games aside, hint at a round full of close finishes, with seven of the favourites priced in the $1.42 to $1.85 range and handicaps in those same seven games in the 2.5 to 9.5 points range.
Read MoreThe Swans' 38-point victory over the Suns and the Eagles' 8-point loss to the Dogs together were enough to convince MARS to move the Swans into top spot on its Ratings. ChiPS already had the Swans ranked 1st before the round commenced, and continues to hold that opinion now, though the gap between the Swans and the Eagles remains a tiny 0.4 Rating Points (RP).
Read MoreAnother small profit for the Overall Portfolio this week, with the Over/Under Fund making a significant contribution by landing four from five and moving into the black for the first time since Round 4.
Read MoreWell there's no point waiting any longer, it seems, there just isn't going to be an Overs/Unders market posted for the Swans v Suns game anytime soon.
Read MoreIf last week's portfolio of wagers was a high-risk hedge fund, this week's is a far more diversified bundle of assets, with a high-risk / high-reward tilt at the Suns offset by a trio of more pedestrian, term deposit-like investments. (Can you guess which sector of the economy I've spent a lot of my life working in?)
Read MoreThis week's results provide some interesting examples of the contrasting philosophies of the MoS Team Rating Systems and how they manifest in the interpretation of results.
Read MoreThis week saw a return to profitability - the first in four weeks - thanks solely to a season-high +7.6c return for the Line Fund from its 2 from 2 performance. The Head-to-Head Fund missed with its only two attempts, meaning that it has now shed almost 25% of its initial value over the last six rounds. Nonetheless, thanks to its remarkable start to the season, it remains up by 10.5c overall.
The Overs/Unders Fund managed just 3 from 6 for the weekend, shedding 0.6c to leave it down 1.4c on the season.
Read MoreInvestors were already hoping that rain might boost the Lions' and Dons' chances in upsetting or at least staying close to their respective opponents, and today's news of six Unders wagers for the weekend will only reinforce that pluvial desire.
Read MoreSo astutely has the TAB Bookmaker priced the head-to-head and line markets this week that seven games have been assessed by MoS Funds as bereft of value for their respective home teams. In the two remaining games, the Head-to-Head and Line Funds have spotted a glimmer of hope - in an expected value sense - for the home team underdogs.
Read MoreChiPS and MARS continued to fuss with Team Rankings again this week, though they mostly moved teams by only a spot or two. The lone exception was the Western Bulldogs, who MARS slipped three places into 8th on the back of a 25-point loss to the Giants.
Read MoreOnly three teams lost this weekend who were favourites with the TAB at the start of the week. Two of those losses were by teams Investors had no interest in, there being no head-to-head or line action in their games, and the third, Fremantle's, was an unwelcome one, since the Head-to-Head Fund had opted for the home team favourite and the Line Fund had taken the Dockers giving 2.5 points start.
Read MoreIn providing ChiPS with the results of last weekend's games, I neglected to include the score in the final game of the round.
As, a consequence, ChiPS' predictions for the two games involving the Eagles and the Saints have been changed as follows:
ChiPS also now rates West Coast 2nd above GWS and Sydney. St Kilda fall from 12th to 14th.
There are no other changes.
It's a bundle of five Overs/Unders wagers this week, four on the Under and one on the Over, which makes the full weekend's festivities look like the following.
Read MoreAgain this week Investors have four head-to-head and four line wagers, two on favourites and two on underdogs.
Read MoreThis week, only two teams moved by more than a single spot on both MARS and ChiPS Team Ratings, Melbourne falling two places on both Systems, and Collingwood rising two places on MARS and three places on ChiPS.
Read MoreNot a lot to get enthused about or overly worried about in the Round 8 results, but ultimately, for me, a slight feeling of disappointment with how it all went.
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