2016 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/This week's results provide some interesting examples of the contrasting philosophies of the MoS Team Rating Systems and how they manifest in the interpretation of results.
Read More2016 - Round 10 Results - That's My Line
/This week saw a return to profitability - the first in four weeks - thanks solely to a season-high +7.6c return for the Line Fund from its 2 from 2 performance. The Head-to-Head Fund missed with its only two attempts, meaning that it has now shed almost 25% of its initial value over the last six rounds. Nonetheless, thanks to its remarkable start to the season, it remains up by 10.5c overall.
The Overs/Unders Fund managed just 3 from 6 for the weekend, shedding 0.6c to leave it down 1.4c on the season.
Read More2016 Round 10 : Overs/Unders Update
/Investors were already hoping that rain might boost the Lions' and Dons' chances in upsetting or at least staying close to their respective opponents, and today's news of six Unders wagers for the weekend will only reinforce that pluvial desire.
Read More2016 Round 10 : Swinging for the Fences and Hoping for Rain
/So astutely has the TAB Bookmaker priced the head-to-head and line markets this week that seven games have been assessed by MoS Funds as bereft of value for their respective home teams. In the two remaining games, the Head-to-Head and Line Funds have spotted a glimmer of hope - in an expected value sense - for the home team underdogs.
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 9
/ChiPS and MARS continued to fuss with Team Rankings again this week, though they mostly moved teams by only a spot or two. The lone exception was the Western Bulldogs, who MARS slipped three places into 8th on the back of a 25-point loss to the Giants.
Read More2016 - Round 9 Results - The Wrong Kind of Upsets
/Only three teams lost this weekend who were favourites with the TAB at the start of the week. Two of those losses were by teams Investors had no interest in, there being no head-to-head or line action in their games, and the third, Fremantle's, was an unwelcome one, since the Head-to-Head Fund had opted for the home team favourite and the Line Fund had taken the Dockers giving 2.5 points start.
Read More2016 Round 9 : Minor ChiPS Changes
/In providing ChiPS with the results of last weekend's games, I neglected to include the score in the final game of the round.
As, a consequence, ChiPS' predictions for the two games involving the Eagles and the Saints have been changed as follows:
- West Coast is now tipped to win by 15 points, not 7, and Port Adelaide's victory probability is now assessed as 34%
- St Kilda is now tipped to win by 26 points, not 34, and their victory probability is now assessed as 76%
ChiPS also now rates West Coast 2nd above GWS and Sydney. St Kilda fall from 12th to 14th.
There are no other changes.
2016 Round 9 : Overs/Unders Update
/It's a bundle of five Overs/Unders wagers this week, four on the Under and one on the Over, which makes the full weekend's festivities look like the following.
Read More2016 Round 9 : Needing the Suns to Shine
/Again this week Investors have four head-to-head and four line wagers, two on favourites and two on underdogs.
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 8
/This week, only two teams moved by more than a single spot on both MARS and ChiPS Team Ratings, Melbourne falling two places on both Systems, and Collingwood rising two places on MARS and three places on ChiPS.
Read More2016 - Round 8 Results - Mixed Feelings
/Not a lot to get enthused about or overly worried about in the Round 8 results, but ultimately, for me, a slight feeling of disappointment with how it all went.
Read More2016 Round 8 : Overs/Unders Update
/Investors have four bets from the Overs/Unders Fund this week, all of them Unders bets, as MoSSBODS finds itself generally estimating lower team and aggregate scores than does the TAB bookmaker.
Read More2016 Round 8 : Roos Snooze and Lose?
/It's another measured week of wagering in Round 8, four head-to-head wagers paired with four line wagers on the same teams (the overs/unders markets still yet to be posted).
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/Well things did settle down a little this week across MoS' three Team Rating Systems, with slightly fewer and dramatically less substantial re-rankings taking place.
Read More2016 - Round 7 Results - If You Can't Rely on the Saints on Sunday ...
/Once the Tigers lost on Friday night, and by just enough to bury our line bet along with our head-to-head and overs/unders wagers, it was always going to be difficult to finish the weekend in the black.
Read More2016 Round 7 : Overs/Unders Update
/Investors have just four Overs/Unders wagers this week to fret about, three of them Unders wagers with thresholds ranging from 176.5 to 188.5 points, and the fourth an Overs wager with a 175.5 points threshold.
Read More2016 Round 7 : Most Years, We'd Only Just Be Starting
/As alluded to in this week's blog title, most previous years would have seen MoS Funds sitting out the early parts of the season waiting for their respective Fund algorithms to calibrate themselves to the new reality.
Read More2016 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/Some bigger-than-expected wins have again this week been converted into multi-spot ranking changes by MoS' three Rating Systems.
Read More2016 - Round 6 Results - Line Lead
/A small profit this week, all of it thanks to the Line Fund, whose 3 from 4 performance added another 5c to that Fund's value. The Overs/Unders Fund fared worst, dropping a little over 2c on a 2 from 5 performance, while the Head-to-Head Fund shed about 1c after just 1 successful wager from 3 attempts.
Read More2016 Round 6 : Tending the Wounds
/This feels like an important week for the MoS Funds, even if it is still very early in the season. With, in footballing terms, a 4 and 1 start for Overall Portfolio profitability, a move to 5 and 1 would provide more evidence that the various algorithms are spotting value, while a slide to 4 and 2 would raise a small query about the relative contributions of luck and talent to those initial successes.
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