2012 Finals Week 1 Results : No Joy

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Investors went close to securing their first SuperMargin wager in 35 attempts on Friday night as the Hawks defeated the Pies by 38 points, only two points fewer than was required for a long-awaited collect. After that the weekend went relentlessly downhill, the Crows contriving to generate more scoring shots than their opponents, Swans, but still losing to them by almost 5 goals, the Cats deciding to take the 1st quarter off and never fully recovering, and the Eagles blowing the Roos off the park in all but the 3rd term to run out eventual 96 point winners.
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2012 Round 23 - Wagers & Tips : It's All Happening at the MCG (and elsewhere)

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The AFL has scheduled this week's matches so that all six of the games with a direct bearing on the finals take place on Friday and Saturday, rendering Sunday's three matchups of limited interest to anyone but the supporters of the six teams involved - and to MAFL Investors; we'll have 15% of the Line Fund and 5% of the Margin Fund running around the various parks on Sunday being vigorously pursued by the TAB Bookmaker.
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2012 Round 21 - Wagers & Tips : Heliocentric Wagering

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This week apparently - and relatively speaking - the TAB Bookmaker has priced most of the markets correctly. At least that's the collective view of the Head-to-Head, Line and Margin Funds which, between them, have ventured just ten wagers, representing only about one-eighth of Investors' original funds, the smallest single-round outlay since Round 13 and only the third-largest this season since all three Funds have been active. Now really wasn't the time I was looking for introspection ...
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2012 AFL Futures Markets After Round 19

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I've just reviewed the current TAB AFL Futures markets in light of the recent simulations I performed of the remainder of the season, and the only value bets at the moment (assuming you agree with the MARS Ratings I've used in the simulations) are: 

  • Geelong to Make the Final 8 : offers an estimated 6% edge at $1.10
  • Geelong to Make the Top 4 : offers an estimated 14% edge at $8
  • St Kilda to Miss the Top 8 : offers an estimated 11% edge at $1.40
  • GWS to Win the Spoon : offers an estimated 4% edge at $1.40

 

2012 Round 19 - Wagers & Tips : There's Always Hope On A Sunday

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One Head-to-Head, four SuperMargin and five Line bets comprise this week's wagering activity, collectively representing for Investors a best-case upside of about 22c and a worst-case downside of about 15c. Almost certainly the eventual outcome will be somewhere within those bounds - lightning not striking twice in the same place and all that - but that's still quite a range ...
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