Swans Turn Into Ugly Ducklings

Two of the three teams did what Investors asked of them this weekend, but Sydney's failure to be amongst this group meant another small loss for most this weekend. This leaves the Recommended Portfolio down about 1% on the season and all other Investors up by amounts ranging from 0.9% (MIN #015) to 24.6% (MIN #002).

At this point in the season New Heritage is up about 11%, Prudence is up about 3.5%, Hope is up almost 25%, Chi-squared is down about 17.5%, and the Line Redux Fund is down about 21%.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow continue to perform well and jointly lead our tipping competition, two tips clear of BKB and four tips clear of STM II, who've leaped into fourth thanks to an 8 from 8 performance this round. Over the past 3 rounds STM II has scored 21 from 24.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, we still have five tipsters showing a profit: Shadow, Silhouette, BKB, STM II and EI II. Three of these tipsters - Silhouette, Shadow and STM II - are also showing a profit on season-long wagering.

ELO performed well again this round on line betting, picking up 6 from 8 to go to 54 and 42 for the season, which is good enough for a 5.67 unit profit on level-stake wagering across the season. Chi managed just 4 from 8 and is now 42 and 54 for the season.

A Trio to Finish

Round 12 continues this weekend, with just three games to complete the formalities.

The New Heritage Fund has two wagers across the weekend totalling around 19% of the Fund. By a considerable margin the larger wager is at $1.25 on the Dons, a team with which New Heritage has had a barely profitable season. The other wager at a generous $1.90 on Sydney, a team which has been responsible for a 12c gain in the New Heritage Fund price (and for a 5c gain in the Prudence Fund).

Prudence has two wagers too, and they're also on the Dons and the Swans. Together, they total about 6% of the Fund.

Line Redux has just one wager, on Freo with 45.5 points start playing the Cats, though there might be another wager on Sydney when their line market opens for betting. This is the Line Redux Fund's first wager on Fremantle this season.

Chi-squared and Hope complete a quiet round for them both, with neither of them venturing a wager this weekend. Between them, they've mustered on a single bet across the entire round. Earlier in the week Chi-squared was contemplating a wager on the Swans, but it went off this idea when the Pies shortened to equal favouritism. The Chi-squared Fund is very sensitive to price movements around the $1.85-$1.95 range.

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner (which I'll update if the Sydney line bet eventuates, so please have another look before the weekend).

(Thursday night update: no line bet on Sydney. Even though they're receiving 6.5 points start - and I expected them to be giving it - they're only at $1.75. There's no value in that.)

So it's the Essendon v Melbourne game that has the greatest potential impact on all Investors except for the once-again wagerless MIN#002.

To tipping:

• The Dons are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
• The Pies are 11-2 favourites over Sydney, though one of the Swans' supporters is ELO. Both Chi and ELO have this as their Game of the Half Round. (Note that, since Sydney and Collingwood are equal favourites, BKB goes with CTL and so is on the Pies.)
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over Freo. Only HSH is opting for the home team.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Melbourne, Sydney and Freo
• ELO's line bets Essendon, Sydney and Freo.

Split Round, Spilt Money

To (mis)use a footballing term: it was a weekend of two halves.

Saturday was wonderful, with the Dogs and the Tigers doing what we'd asked. Sunday was, in equal measure, appalling, due largely to the Hawks' failure to show up for the second half, but capped off by the Roos' inferior aquatic skills against the Crows at Football Baths.

All told, every Investor with a wager in the round so far - which excludes only MIN#002 - has lost money, in amounts ranging from 2.5% to 10.2%. So, at this point, 5 games into the split 12th round, the Recommended Portfolio is under water by about 0.8%. Other portfolios remain profitable, but MIN#001 and MIN#002 are now just a loss or two away from red ink.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow are joint leaders on 66, BKB is third on 64, and STM II, with 5 from 5 for the weekend, has moved into fourth on 62.

There's still 3 more games to turn this Round around ...

Five Games; Money on Four

Round 12 in the AFL is a split round this year, so our tipsters and our Funds need only make decisions about 5 contests this week. Only Prudence and New Heritage have expressed any significant enthusiasm for what's on offer; amongst them, the other three Funds have just two wagers.

Prudence, this week's most active Fund, has four wagers totalling around 13.5% of the Fund and spanning teams with prices ranging from $1.15 to $1.55. Its Adelaide wager is its first on them this season. 

New Heritage, the next most active Fund, has three wagers, two of them with substantial downside tied to the fate of the Dogs and the Hawks, and another with substantial upside but relying on the Roos at $5 to overcome the Crows at Footy Park. The Roos wager is New Heritage's first on this team this season.

Chi-squared, feeling a little anxious at last weekend's 14% decline, has ventured just a single wager: a smidge over 4.6% on the Tigers at $1.55. This is Chi-squared's first flutter on the Tigers this year. Excepting Hope, the other Funds have all had bad years punting on Richmond, registering just a solitary profitable bet amongst them from five attempts. Line Redux has been similarly restrained in also opting for only one wager. Its is on Hawthorn giving 15.5 points start to the Lions.

The Hope Fund, a trifle ironically, has found no team worthy of its faith this weekend and so will finish the weekend where it'll start it at +24.6%. 

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner.

For all Investors - bar MIN#002 who is without wager - the two most financially important games are the Hawks v Lions clash and the Bulldogs v Port matchup. These games represent potential swings of around 4-6% for most Investors and around 15% for MIN#017.

Moving then to tipping:

• The Saints are favoured 12-1 over the Blues. HSH is home alone on the Blues. ELO has this game as its Game of the Half Round though it is tipping more than a 2-goal margin.
• The Dogs are unanimous favourites over Port, with Chi and ELO both predicting that the Dogs will cover the 25.5 point spread.
• West Coast are 8-5 favourites over Richmond. Amongst the upper echelon of our tipsters, the Tigers have the support of BKB, ELO and STM II, while Shadow, Silhouette and CTL are siding with the Coast.
• Hawthorn are favoured 9-4 over the Lions, with Silhouette and STM II the only members of the tipping elite jumping on the Lions.
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Roos. Chi has the Crows squeaking home by just 7 points, making this his Game of the Half Round.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are 3 mammals, a bird and a colour: Blues, Dogs, Eagles, Lions and Roos.
• ELO's line bets have the same mix of fauna and hue, but swap a crow for an eagle and a tiger for a roo: Blues, Dogs, Tigers, Lions and Crows.

Not Quite What I Was Planning

Okay, I admit it: making money is much more fun than losing it, no matter how tiny and glacially produced that profit is. 

This weekend, most Investors were on the wrong side of a number of narrow wagering losses. First, the Roos collapsed in the final term against the Saints to lose by 46, just a little over a goal more than the 39.5 start we were receiving on line betting. Next, the Lions couldn't quite do enough in the last quarter, despite kicking 7 goals, and wound up losing by just 6 points to the Blues. Then the Dons became only the sixth team this year to surrender a three-quarter time lead in going down to the Crows by 16 points, taking three Funds' money with them. And finally, to complete the weekend's indignities, the Hawks fell just 4.5 points short of covering the spread against the Swans.

All up, we won just 6 of 14 bets. 

The New Heritage Fund fared best, bagging 3 from 3 to give it an impressive 75% win record for the season. Prudence managed just 3 of 5, which gives it a less impressive but still profitable 67% win record for the season. Hope scored 0 from 2 and now has only a 40% win record for the season, but its winners have generally been at long odds, so it too is still in profit. 

More troubling have been the Chi-squared Fund, which recorded 0 from 2 this weekend and now has only a 45% win record, and the Line Redux Fund, which also recorded 0 from 2, leaving it with a win record similar to Chi-squared's. To date, the Line Redux Fund is, however, 2 and 5 on games where the handicap-adjusted margin was less than 2 goals, so I'm feeling a little better-disposed towards this Fund than I might otherwise be. Chi-squared's performance is just a mystery though, to be fair, none of his losses have been by more than 22 points and only one of his wins has been by such a narrow margin.

With so little success, it's not surprising that all Investors except MIN#017 - who's 100% invested in New Heritage - lost money this weekend, all in the 3-5% range. MIN#017 meantime made just over 9% on the strength on New Heritage's perfect weekend. Across the season, all Investors remain in profit, albeit narrowly.

Since we're at the halfway point in the season I thought I'd provide a new chart, this one showing how the profitability of each portfolio has varied by game across the 88 games of the season so far.

On  tipping, Shadow and STM I both tipped the card this week. This moved Shadow to 63 from 88 for the season (which is 71.5%), one clear of Silhouette and a stunning 3 clear of BKB. HSH had a horror week, scoring just 3 to leave it equal last on 49 from 88, which is still a respectable 55.7%.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, five tipsters remain in profit: Shadow, Silhouette, BKB (barely), STM II and EI II. 

Finally, looking at line betting performances, ELO notched 5 from 8 this week to leave it with a +2.27 unit profit for the season. Chi managed just 3 from 8 and is losing more than it matters to count.

(Incidentally, this week's blog name is an allusion to SMITH magazine's six-word memoirs which, legend has it, were inspired by Hemingway's response to a challenge to write a story in just 6 words. His answer, "For sale: baby shoes, never worn", is hard to top, but others on the site and in the book such as "I still make coffee for two" also give pause.) 

The Funds Grow A Little More Discerning

A quieter weekend is in prospect for most Investors as we've just 14 bets in total covering only 6 of the 8 contests. As it's a long weekend, there's a Monday game, but it's not one we have any financial interest in.

Across the weekend, we have:

• New Heritage Fund: 3 wagers for about 35% of the Fund. Each wager is about 11 or 12% of the Fund and they're on teams with prices of $1.18, $1.25 and $1.36, so we'll need all 3 to win if this Fund is to return a profit for the weekend.
• Prudence Fund: 5 wagers for about 16.5% of the Fund. Again Prudence has wagers on the same teams as New Heritage, the largest of these on Port at $1.18. The two additional wagers are both small and they're on the Lions and the Dons.
• Hope Fund: 2 wagers for about 5% of the Fund, the more significant of those on the Dons at $1.80.
• Chi-squared Fund: 2 wagers for around 14.5% of the Fund. The larger - almost 10% of the Fund - is on the Dons.
• Line Redux Fund: 2 wagers for 10% of the Fund, 5% on the Roos receiving 39.5 points start playing the Saints, and another 5% on Hawthorn giving Sydney 15.5 points start.

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner. (Fortunately, none of the New Heritage bets are on the away team this week, so we've no instances of bets on both teams head-to-head.)

So, for most Investors it's the Hawks v Sydney game that represents the largest potential swing in terms of the best-case versus the worst-case outcomes. For those with the Recommended Portfolio - and for MIN#001 and MIN#015 - it's the Essendon v Adelaide game that's next most important.

(Note that there's still one line market to come - that for the Essendon v Adelaide game - but we're unlikely to have a line wager on this game.)

Next, tipping:

• The Dogs are favoured 13-0 over the Tigers.
• The Saints are favoured 12-1 over the Roos, with the only support for the Roos coming from HSH.
• Brisbane are 9-4 favourites over the Blues. Silhouette is the only tipster of note siding with the Blues.
• Port are favoured 12-1 over Freo, with only EI I tipping the Dockers. Chi has Port winning by 6 points making this his Game of the Round.
• Adelaide are 7-6 favourites over the Dons. BKB are on the Dons as is ELO but by only 1 point making this its Game of the Round.
• Hawthorn are favoured 9-4 over Sydney. Sydney has CTL on its side, but the remaining form tipsters are all on the Hawks.
• Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Eagles. Again, HSH finds itself alone on the underdog.
• Collingwood are favoured 12-1 over the Dees and once more its HSH the lone dissenter.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Richmond, Kangaroos, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Hawthorn, West Coast and Melbourne.
• ELO's line bets are Bulldogs, Kangaroos, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Sydney, Geelong and Melbourne.

Constant Dripping ...

Only now am I becoming accustomed to the attritional manner with which our current wagering strategy accumulates wealth, when and such as it does.

This week, 14 of our 21 wagers were successful, yet this produced only a 4% gain for those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio and so exposed to all 21 of those wagers.

The New Heritage Fund won 5 of 7 bets, taking it to 21 and 8 for the season. Prudence won 4 of 5 to move to 17 and 5 for the season. Hope managed just 1 from 2, taking it to 6 and 7 for the season, while Chi-squared bagged 2 from 3 to move to 5 and 4 for the season. And, finally, Line Redux managed 2 from 4, leaving it at 13 and 15 for the season.

All of which drove net returns to Investors ranging from a 0.6% loss for the Investor with only Hope to a 10.8% gain for the Investor whose portfolio is all in New Heritage. Season-wide, all Investors remain in profit.

(By the way, these returns are a little higher than indicated by the Ready Reckoner I prepared because I used a price of $1.60 for the Bulldogs in the Reckoner when, in fact, we had them at $1.65.)

While I was updating the spreadsheet of match results for the season I was struck once again by the statistical regularity in the relative scoring of winners and losers, even when considered at the relatively low level of a single round. As you can see from the table below, winning teams have scored between 57% and 63% of the goals in any single round, and have racked up between 56% and 59% of the scoring shots. That's a phenomenally narrow range.

Anyway, onto tipping. Silhouette bagged another 7 from 8, a score matched only by STM II. Silhouette and Shadow now lead our tipping competition on 55 from 80, one tip clear of BKB on 54 from 80.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, our top 7 tipsters and EI II are all showing profit. 

Finally, looking at line betting performances, ELO and Chi managed just 3 from 8 this weekend.

(When you've a moment, take a look at the current ladder. The Bulldogs, in third, are only 2 wins ahead of the Roos, in thirteenth, and 7 teams have a 5 and 5 record. It's shaping up as an extraordinary battle for the bottom 6 places in the top 8.)

Same Again?

We have a record 21 bets this weekend, again including a couple of tiddlers from New Heritage, and again covering all eight contests.

This is the overall story:

• New Heritage Fund: 7 wagers for about 37% of the Fund. The two largest bets are at $1.08 and $1.50, though there is a brave 2.15% wager on the Eagles away to the Blues.
• Prudence Fund: 5 wagers for about 18.5% of the Fund. The Bulldogs, at $1.65, and the Saints, at $1.08, carry the majority of the Funds at risk.
• Hope Fund: 2 wagers for about 11%, including what could only generously be described as a speculative wager on the Dons at $5.75 against the Cats. The other bet is on the Crows at $2.25, facing the Premiers.
• Chi-squared Fund: 3 wagers for around 12.5% of the Fund. The bets include a chunky wad on the Dogs and two smaller wagers on Freo and Collingwood.
• Line Redux Fund: 4 wagers for almost 17% of the Fund, the tiddler being on the Roos +6.5 against the Lions but only at $1.85 on line betting (not, as I was expecting, $2.10).

If you're an Investor, I recognise that, with this level of activity, it's hard to get your head around exactly what a given result will mean for your personal wealth. So, for the first time this season, I've decided to produce a Ready Reckoner for the round, which appears below:

The first block of data pertains to those Investors who have the Recommended Portfolio. The first row of that block provides information about the effect of different outcomes in the Carlton v West Coast game. If Carlton, the Home team for this game, wins head-to-head and on handicap, these Investors will suffer a 0.26% decline in the value of their total portfolio. If, instead, Carlton loses head-to-head (and so, by definition loses on handicap, it being the favoured team and so giving start), these same Investors will enjoy an increase of 0.54% in the value of their total portfolio.

Subsequent rows provide the same information for the round's other games. Subsequent blocks provide the same information for all games for other Investors.

On the far right of each block I've provided one measure of the importance of each game for each Investor, such measure being based on the difference between the best-case and worst-case outcomes. So, for example, the Bulldogs v Swans game is very important to those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio; best case they could make 3.51%, worst case they could drop 5.35%.

Turning next to tips:

• Carlton are favoured 11-2 over the Eagles. Only EI I and EI II are on the Eagles - the last and second last tipsters amongst our cadre.
• The Dogs are favoured 10-3 over Sydney. None of the support for Sydney comes from our top tipsters.
• Brisbane are 7-6 favourites over the Roos, but the Roos can count Shadow amongst their supporters. Both ELO and Chi have this as one of their Games of the Round, though Chi has opted for as many Games of the Round this week as Bruce McAvaney has on his list of "special" athletes.
• St Kilda are the unanimous pick over the Dees.
• Fremantle are, similarly, unanimous tips, in their case over the Tigers. This is, however, another of Chi's 1-point margin games and so another Game of the Round.
• Hawthorn are favoured 7-6 over Adelaide and have BKB, ELO and CTL amongst their supporters. Chi has this game as his third (yes third) Game of the Round; ELO has it as its second Game of the Round.
• Geelong are favoured 10-3 over the Dons. None of the top tipsters are opting for the Dons.
• Collingwood are favoured 10-3 over Port. Amongst Port's backers, the only tipster of note is CTL.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are West Coast, Sydney, Kangaroos, Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide.
• ELO's line bets are West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos, St Kilda, Richmond, Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide.

Everyone's A Winner

It's churlish, I suppose, to quibble about a round in which every Investor made money, but the Hawks' fourth-quarter performance, which turned a spread-covering 47-point lead into a line bet losing 22-point lead, was a desperately disappointing way to finish the weekend.

Regardless, Investors enjoyed net returns ranging from +0.5% to +9.3% leaving most up on the season by between about 1.4% and 5.6% except for MIN#002 who is now up by just over 30%. All of this came on the back of 13 successful wagers from 20, New Heritage bagging 5 from 6, Prudence 3 from 4, Hope 1 from 2, Chi-squared 2 from 3, and Line Redux 2 from 5.

That leaves the New Heritage Fund up about 6% on the season, Prudence up about 1%, Hope up 30%, Chi-squared down 10%, and Line Redux down 13%.

On tipping, Shadow and Silhouette continued to perform, each registering 7 from 8 to out-tip the bookies and, in Shadow's case, to take outright tipping leadership on 49 from 72, or just over 68%.

ELO notched 6 from 8 to stay within 2 tips of BKB. Chi also scored 6 to be 2 tips further back.

Rereading my original note on the heuristic tipsters I discovered that the level-stake strategy I'd found to be profitable was in fact one that commenced in Round 6 (not 7 as I've previously blogged) and that bet only when the tipped team was a true or notional Home team. I've changed the last column of the table in the margin to now track this strategy.

Across the seasons 2006 to 2008, the heuristics that have been most profitable when used with this strategy were RYL, EI II, FTS, CTL, Shadow and Silhouette. At this point in the season all 6 of those strategies are currently profitable, which is particularly surprising for EI II given its sub-standard overall tipping performance.

Looking next at line betting performances, ELO recorded another acceptable performance, gathering 5 from 8 to move to 40 from 72 for the season. Chi, meantime, managed just 3 from 8 to take him to 32 from 72 for the season, preserving his status as a line bettor best used with a contrarian approach (ie bet the other side of whatever he recommends).

Finally, a quick update on average prediction errors. ELO has continued to perform well on this measure and is now at 29.7 points per game for the season, just behind BKB on 29.3. Chi is still within cooee of the magical 30-point mark, though still on the wrong side of it. He's on 31.7 points per game, his record this weekend spoiled mainly by the size of Adelaide's and Sydney's victories.

A quick piece of trivia before I go. St Kilda, in coming from behind at three-quarter time to beat the Lions, were only the 5th team this year to do this. Of the 72 games so far played, 65 (which is 90%) have been won by the team leading at three-quarter time; the other two have been drawn at that stage.

Also, 60 games (or 83%) have been won by the team leading at half-time, and  49 games (68%) have been won by the team leading at quarter time. Clearly it's been a season to be in front.

More Bets, Smaller Outlay

We have twenty bets this weekend, though a few of them come firmly from the why-bother end of the wagering scale. And, once again, the Funds have organised themselves so that we've at least one wager in every game, and the New Heritage Fund has gone contrarian, leaving us with wagers on both sides of the same contest.

Here's a summary of what we have:

• The New Heritage Fund has made 6 wagers this week, though only 3 of them are of any import and these are on teams ranging in price from $1.13 to $1.55. So, all up, a fairly conservative week for this Fund.
• Prudence has found 4 wagers, 3 of them - as has been its wont these past few weeks - on the same team as the New Heritage Fund. The exception is its wager on West Coast in the game where New Heritage fancies the Pies.
• The Hope Fund, chastened it seems by last weekend's 0 from 2, has just 2 bets this weekend, both exceedingly modest and ultra-conservative.
• Chi-squared has followed up last weekend's single bet with a trio this week, the largest about 8% on the Roos at $1.70.
• The Line Redux Fund has recorded its highest level of activity for the season, registering 5 bets, 3 of them on teams giving start and 2 of them on teams receiving start.

So, as is becoming the custom, plenty to keep us occupied in that lot.

(There is still one line market yet to be posted, but I'm expecting it to be the Roos -6.5 in which case we'll have no interest.)

Turning next to tips:

• Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Dogs, with only Home Sweet Home supporting the Dogs, based on its recognition that this alleged Geelong home game is being played Docklands and so is really a Dogs home game.
• The Roos are favoured 9-4 over Freo, though Chi has the Roos winning by less than a kick and so makes this one of his Games of the Round. None of our top 6 tipsters fancies Freo.
• Carlton are 8-5 favourites over the Crows, with ELO predicting just a 1 point win for the Blues, making this game its Game of the Round. Amongst the top tipsters, Shadow and Silhouette have opted for the Crows.
• West Coast are favoured 9-4 over the cold Pies. Amongst the 4 supporters for the Pies, however, are ELO, Shadow and Silhouette.
• Essendon are favoured 10-3 over the Tigers. Chi has the Dons getting home by 5 points, making this his alternative Game of the Round. All of our best performing tipsters are on the Dons.
• Port Adelaide are favoured 8-5 over Sydney and can count CTL, Shadow, Silhouette and Ride Your Luck amongst their supporters. 
• St Kilda are favoured 11-2 over the Lions, with EI I and EI II the only tipsters sufficiently impressed with the Lions' 36-point win over the Crows last weekend to side with the Lions over the in-form and ladder-leading Saints.
• Hawthorn are favoured 12-1 over the Dees, STM II being the Dees' sole supporter, still buoyed by its successful tip of the Dons back in Round 6 and still hampered by its unwillingness to tip the Hawks since its fateful mis-tip in Round 2.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Western Bulldogs, Fremantle (TBC), Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Melbourne.
• ELO's line bets are Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos (TBC), Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn.

Dude, Where's My Money?

We're now 8 rounds into the season and I'm guessing that some Investors might be curious about which teams and which Funds are responsible for their gains and losses.

The first table looks at the situation by team and by Fund.

The entries in the table reflect the profit or loss attributable to the team whose name appears in the left-hand column. So, for example, Adelaide has been responsible for losing 2.6% of the Funds held by those with the Recommended portfolio, 3% of the Funds held by MIN#001, none of the Funds held by MIN#002, 2.7% of the Funds held by MIN#015, and 7.9% of the Funds held by MIN#017.

Looking down the first column we find that the Eagles have been the source of largest losses for those with the Recommended Portfolio, thereafter followed by the Blues, the Crows and the Tigers. Essendon have provided the largest profits followed by Sydney, Geelong and St Kilda. Teams current in the top 8 have contributed to gains of 8.2% and those outside the top 8 have contributed to losses of 8.9%.

Next we turn to a Fund-by-Fund view. 

New Heritage's net loss of 3.7% is entirely the fault of the Crows, the Blues, the Tigers and the Eagles, whose losses have been offset to a less than full extent by the Lions, the Hawks, the Saints and the Swans.

Prudence has been hurt by the Blues, Tigers and Eagles, and bolstered by the Lions, the Saints and the Swans.

The Hope Fund's profit is almost solely down to the Dons, with smaller contributions coming from Freo and the Roos. The Dees, the Eagles and the Dogs have been the only value-destroyers.

Chi-Squared's had little joy. Freo and the Eagles have both inflicted losses, and the Lions have contributed the only, paltry profit.

Line Redux, after starting the season well, has now dropped into loss, largely due to the Crows, the Pies, the Hawks and the Dogs. Profit has come from the Cats, Port and the Swans.

So, now you know who to blame ...

Not a Round for the Highlights Reel

Sometimes, where sport's concerned, it's all about playing for the honourable draw  - though this is a concept that's clearly foreign to the Americans, who'd rather have 9 overtimes than see their team split the points  - and that's what it felt like for MAFL for most of this weekend.

Regrettably, most Investors finished with little honour and a little less cash.

Those with the Recommended Fund dropped just over 4% on the weekend, leaving them down about two-thirds of a percent on the season. Most other Investors dropped between about 3.5% and 9.5% across the weekend but still finished the weekend at least a little ahead. The exception was MIN#017 who made a smidge over 6.5% on the weekend to leave them down a tick over 3.7% on the season.

What hurt most Investors was the combined performance of the Hope, Chi-squared and Line Redux Funds that, amongst them, managed 0 wins from 6 bets, contrasting sharply with New Heritage's 5 from 6 and Prudence's 5 from 5.

Almost all tipsters performed well this weekend. In particular, CTL tipped the card and moved to joint-leadership on 42 from 64 alongside Shadow and BKB who themselves tipped 7 from 8. Others to tip 7 from 8 were Silhouette (now on 41), ELO (41), Ride Your Luck (40) and Chi (38). The round's worst tipsters were STM II and EI II who both managed just 4 from 8.

These generally strong tipping performances have left 8 of our 13 tipsters in profit (and 1 more at breakeven) on level-stake wagering across this round and last, and 5 tipsters at profit across the whole season.

On Line Betting, ELO managed 5 from 8, taking it to +1.72 units for the season and Chi managed just 4 from 8 to move to -9.33 units for the season.

Eight Games, Seventeen Bets, No Promises

This week, again, we find ourselves just 24 hours from the first ball-up and without a full set of line markets. Currently, TAB Sportsbet are silent on what they'll be offering for the Freo v Hawks game, but I'm guessing it'll be Freo -6.5 points in which case we'll have no interest.

Not that we're short on interest this week. As we did last week, we've at least one wager in every game. Indeed, so eager have the various Funds been this week to ensure that we have comprehensive coverage, two of them have opted for wagers on competing teams in the same game.

So then, what have we got?

The New Heritage Fund has again found 6 wagers this week, virtually all of it on teams priced at $1.25 or under, the exceptions being a minuscule wager on Carlton at $1.55 and a slightly larger wager on Adelaide at $3.30. It's this larger wager on the Crows that Prudence has opted to cover by placing a slightly bigger wager on the Lions. In total, we've just over one-half of the New Heritage Fund at risk.

Prudence's 4 other wagers - aside from the Lions - are on the same teams that New Heritage has endorsed. The largest of them won't be resolved until the final game of the round: 6.5% on the Saints.

Next, the Hope Fund, our in-form Fund, has 2 bets this week, a modest wager on Freo at $1.83 and a far bigger and bolder wager on the Dees at $5.00, our first (and let's hope near to last) wager on this most hapless of teams.

Chi-squared has tentatively re-entered the wagering fray, with a sole but confident outlay on Freo up against the Premiers.

Finally, the Line Redux Fund has found 3 teams to favour with its affections this week, 2 of them giving start (Sydney and St Kilda) and 1 of them receiving start (Collingwood).

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the largest profit would come with a Melbourne or Freo win, though a Sydney or a St Kilda win of sufficient magnitude to cover the respective spread would also be welcomed. The largest potential losses would come with a St Kilda or a Sydney head-to-head loss. 

Turning next to tips:

• Fremantle are favoured 8-5 over the Hawks, though Chi has the Dockers as just 4 point favourites, making this game one of his two Games of the Round (Game of the Rounds?).
• The Bulldogs are favoured 11-2 over Melbourne, though the Dees can count amongst their supporters the highly-performed STM II.
• Geelong are, yet again, favoured 13-0, this time over the Roos. ELO has Geelong covering the 46.5 point spread.
• The Lions are also unanimous favourites, they against the Crows. ELO is predicting just a 9 point win for the Lions though, making this game its Game of the Round.
• Sydney are favoured 7-6 over the Eagles. STM II is once again alone amongst the tipsters-of-note, this time in supporting the heavy underdog West Coast.
• Port Adelaide are the unanimous tips facing the Tigers. Neither Chi nor ELO though have Port covering the 26.5 point spread.
• Collingwood are favoured 7-6 over Carlton. Chi is opting for the Blues by 4 points, making this his other Game of the Round. BKB is also on the Blues, though STM II and Shadow have sided with the underdog Pies.
• St Kilda are favoured 12-1 over the Dons, with EI II, a tipster 4 tips off the pace, the Dons' sole friend.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Hawthorn, Melbourne, Kangaroos, Adelaide, Sydney, Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon.
• ELO's line bets are Hawthorn, Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood and St Kilda.

(For those of you who've made it this far, there's a new blog up on www.mafl-stats.blogspot.com looking at how the competition ladder will finally look if our MARS Ratings are vaguely accurate.)

Profit For Most

Of the fifteen bets we had on the weekend, 9 of them were successful.

The New Heritage Fund landed 3 from 6, dropping 16.7c in the process to drive its price down to 89.7c. Carlton's narrow loss to Freo was most painful for this Fund, accounting for 11.8c of the drop.  Prudence recorded a 3 from 5 result, but still dropped by 1.8c, leaving it now priced at 97.1c. It, like New Heritage, suffered most from Carlton's loss, dropping 3.4c on that result alone.

The stories for the two remaining active Funds were far more positive.

Line Redux managed only 1 from 2, but had more riding on its winning bet than it did on its losing bet and so finished up 2.4c on the weekend, driving its price to $1.084. The Hope Fund, quite simply, sparkled, landing 2 from 2, both underdogs, lifting its share price by 33.6c to $1.391. 

(The remaining Fund, the Chi-Squared Fund, did not wager this week and remains at 93.3c.)

All that activity generated additional net profit on the weekend for all Investors except MIN#017. The Recommended Portfolio rose by 1.74c, leaving it now up 3.43% on the season.

On tipping, Follow the Streak had the best performance, bagging 6 from 8 for the third time this season. ELO, in contrast, struggled, backing up its season-high of 7 last week with a season-low of 3 this week. Three tipsters are now joint leaders in our tipping competition - BKB, Shadow and STM II - all on 35 from 56 (62.5%).

So far this season, level-stake betting on four tipsters would have been profitable: STM II, Shadow, Silhouette and EI II (in decreasing order of net profit). EI II has been profitable despite managing only tipping correctly on 31 occasions by virtue of landing teams such as Fremantle and Essendon at juicy odds this week and 5 other teams priced at better than $2 in weeks gone by.

In the wagering analysis of the heuristic algorithms that I carried out looking at previous seasons' data, you might recall that I found that level-stake betting on every tip was a profitable proposition provided that we started in Round 7 of each year. Accordingly, I've now added another column to the table tracking the heuristics' wagering performance, headed "From R7", in which we'll record the result of following this approach. 

We've A Stake In All Eight

Apologies for the delay in uploading the bets and tips this week, but it wasn't until 7:20 tonight that two of the line markets were posted, one of which I was fairly certain - correctly  as it turned out - we'd have an interest in.

And what an array of bets we've wound up with. For the first time that I can remember, we've a wager in every game, this despite the fact that the Chi-Squared Fund has found nothing at all to its liking (which is surprising, since 'fussy' is not a word I'd be tempted to use about Chi).

The New Heritage Fund has found 6 wagers, on teams ranging from the laughingly short-priced Cats at $1.08 to the narrowly-underdogged (watch the spellchecker gag on that word) Tigers at $2.00. All up, it's put over 60% of the Fund at risk, so a round choc-full o' upsets could prove hard to digest.

Prudence has plumped for 5 wagers, mirroring the New Heritage Fund in all but its wager on the Crows.

The Hope Fund has 2 bets, 1 on the Dons at $5, and another on the Roos at $2.65, thus ensuring our collective Funds' coverage of all 8 contests.

Lastly, the Line Redux Fund has lavished 5% on the Cats who are giving 39.5 start at $1.90, and another 2.06% on Richmond receiving 6.5 start but priced at just $1.85.

Turning next to tips:

• Hawthorn are favoured 8-5 over Essendon, though our top 5 tipsters favour the Dons 3-2.
• Geelong are favoured 13-0 over Sydney. Fitting, I guess, for a team at $1.08.
• The Lions are favoured 11-2 over Richmond. One of the Tigers' 2 supporters is, however, our in-form tipster, ELO, and Chi is tipping the Lions by only 2 points (his Game of the Round), so the Tigers aren't without hope.
• Port Adelaide are favoured 12-1 over the Roos. ELO has Port winning by a solitary point, making this its Game of the Round.
• Carlton are favoured 8-5 over Fremantle, including 4-1 favouritism for the Blues amongst our top 5 tipsters (with STM II the dissenter).
• Adelaide are favoured 7-6 over the Bulldogs. In this game the top 5 tipsters are split 3-2 in favour of the Crows.
• West Coast are favoured 9-4 over Melbourne, though Melbourne (yes, Melbourne) are favoured 3-2 amongst our top 5 tipsters.
• St Kilda are favoured 11-2 over Collingwood.

Finally, for what it's worth:

• Chi's line bets are Essendon, Sydney, Richmond, Roos, Fremantle, Adelaide, Melbourne and Collingwood.
• ELO's line bets are Essendon, Sydney, Richmond, Roos, Carlton, Adelaide, Melbourne and St Kilda.

I Blame the Eagles

Not a great weekend for most Investors, due largely, I'd contend, to the waywardness of the Eagles, whose 9.20 was insufficient to prevail over the Dockers' 7-fewer-scoring-shot 13.9. Put simply, the Eagles should have won. (Okay, okay ... perhaps the Hawks were a little lucky to win, but surely I'm as entitled as the next person to attribute good luck to superior foresight and bad luck to ... well, sheer bad luck.)

Most Investors suffered losses in the 1.5% to 2% range, though MIN#002 fared worst, losing 7.88% and MIN#017 fared far better, gaining 6.39%. The good news is that all Investors have made a profit so far this season.

On tipping, ELO had an extraordinary weekend, bagging 7 from 8, taking it to joint-leadership on 30 from 48, level with BKB (it was only a matter of time, wasn't it?), STM II, Shadow and Silhouette. Only 4 tips separate 1st from last now, with Chi, HSH, EI I and EI II filling the bottom places on 26 from 48.

In stark contrast with its tipping performance, ELO managed just 3 from 8 on line betting, moving it to 26 from 48 for the season. Chi. meantime, has recorded just 21 from 48 on line betting, meaning that betting against him would have been profitable whereas betting with him would not. Hmmm ... good thing he only bets head-to-head then.

** Please note that entries in the Pick the Ladder Competition are due by midnight this Wednesday. **

And Now The Contest Begins

This weekend, for Investors, everything changes. All Funds are now active and, as it happens, all Funds are active. New Heritage has four bets; Prudence has three; Chi-squared, Hope and Line Redux have two each. Only two games are wager-free - Port v Adelaide and Melbourne v Geelong - the first because Chi eventually opted for Port rather than Adelaide by 1 point, and the second because not even a MAFL Fund could hold its nose long enough to wager on the Dees at $11 up against the Cats.

In aggregate, a little over 15% of funds are in play for those with the Recommended portfolio.

West Coast and Brisbane, in particular, will carry the hopes of those with the Recommended portfolio. To a lesser extent, so too will Sydney and Hawthorn, the Roos and the Bulldogs.

Before I move on from wagering considerations I feel duty-bound to note that the Dees have now moved to $13 and the Cats to $1.01. In terms of the data I have, no team has ever previously been as slender-chanced as the Dees. Even at the original offer of $11, imagine what the Heritage Fund would have thrown at the Dees this weekend had this Fund still been active. (For old times' sake - whatever that means - I ran the Heritage Fund algorithm on the current round. It would have wagered almost 15% on the Dees as well as 7% on the Roos and 2% on the Bulldogs. I don't really miss the Heritage Fund.)

On the line market the Dees are only being given 58.5 start, which I think is a tad underdone when you consider that they received 75.5 points start last year in Round 3 when they were away to the Cats and at $12 and, more relevantly, 60.5 start in Round 19 when they were at home to the Cats and priced at just $10.

On tipping:

• Collingwood are favoured 12-1 over the Roos, and only Home Sweet Home is opting for the Roos. That said, both ELO and Chi have the Pies as only 2 point favourites, in ELO's case making this its Game of the Round.
• Carlton are 11-2 favourites over last year's premiers, Hawthorn. BKB is opting for Carlton because, with the Blues and the Hawks equal favourites at noon on Wednesday, BKB aligns itself with CTL's Carlton tip. (A couple of weeks back, when Freo and Adelaide were equal favourites, I forgot to apply this tie-breaking rule for BKB. I've since corrected this, giving BKB an Adelaide tip for this game - as it turned out, a correct tip.)
• West Coast are 8-5 favourites over Freo. All of our top 5 tipsters except STM II are with the Eagles.
• Essendon are 9-4 favourites over the Lions. BKB is the only top 5 tipster opting for the Lions.
• Port Adelaide are 7-6 favourites over Adelaide. Chi has vacillated over this game all week, swapping between Port by 1 point (with a 10%+ wager) and Adelaide by the same margin (but without a bet). Despite not having a wager (perhaps because of it), Chi has this as his Game of the Round. Amongst the top 5 tipsters only Silhouette is tipping Adelaide.
• Sydney are 8-5 favourites over Richmond. Amongst the top 5 tipsters only STM II is tipping Richmond.
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over Melbourne. Once again, only Home Sweet Home feels compelled to support the underdog.
• St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over the Dogs, where, yet again, it's HSH that's out on its own.

On line betting, Chi's with the Roos, Carlton, West Coast, Essendon, Adelaide, Richmond, Melbourne and the Dogs; ELO's with the Roos, Hawthorn, West Coast, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne and the Dogs.

Good Wagering, Hard Tipping

It'd be churlish to be disappointed about our wagering performance this weekend though it was only a stray goal from the Hawks that stood between our actual 3-2 performance and a far more impressive 4-1. Speaking of stray, the other losing bet was the Dogs, but no amount of alternative futuring could readily turn their performance into a victorious one.

So we finish the weekend with no Investor in the red and all but MIN#017 comfortably in the green.

Though we made money on the Funds' implicit tips, it was a tough weekend for our official tipsters, with 5 favourites losing. Our best tipsters - Silhouette, ELO and Home Sweet Home - managed just 4 from 8. (This week please note that I've added another column to the tipster performance summary on the right. It's headed "Return" and reflects the return that would have been achieved from a 1 unit wager on that tipster's tips.) 

Chi performed admirably on line betting, bagging 5 from 8, but this takes him to a no-better-than-chance 20 from 40 for the season. ELO slipped again, scoring just 3 from 8 this week, but remains profitable for the season with 23 from 40. (By the way, ELO has generally been profitable in seasons past if line wagers were placed only on those teams  predicted to win by 13.5 points or more after the handicap is taken into consideration. Following that strategy this year would have produced a 3.3 unit profit so far.)

If you're curious about the latest MARS Ratings, these are available on the MAFL Stats site. You'll see there that the 8 highest-ranked teams are, in order, Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Sydney, Adelaide and Carlton. Six of these teams are also in the top 8 of the competition ladder (which, by the way is also available on the MAFL-Stats site), the two differences being the inclusion of the Hawks and the Swans in the MARS Top 8 at the expense of Port Adelaide and Essendon.

We Now Have Hope

This week we ratchet up another level as the Hope Fund comes on stream and starts out with a couple of bold bets - 5.42% on Essendon @ $2.90 and 4.6% on the friendless Freo @ $2.25 - and one apparently safer bet of 2.59% on the Dogs @ $1.68.

The Line Redux Fund adds two more games to the list of those in which Investors have a financial interest by lobbing 5% at Hawthorn giving 22.5 start to West Coast, and another 5% at Geelong giving 38.5 start to Brisbane.

In total then, much as I'd foreshadowed on the site earlier in the week, we've about 12.6% of the Hope Fund and 10% of the Line Redux Fund at risk.

On tipping, the favourites are more heavily supported by our tipsters in just five of the eight matches. The details are as follows:

• St Kilda are favoured over Port Adelaide 10-3. ELO is tipping the Saints by just 2 points making this its Game of the Round.
• Collingwood are favoured over Essendon 8-5, though Chi and ELO are tipping only about a 1 goal margin.
• West Coast are favoured over Hawthorn 9-4 despite heavy Hawk victories being predicted by BKB, ELO and Chi.
• The Roos are favoured 13-0 over Richmond.
• Sydney are favoured 12-1 over Fremantle though Chi predicts the Swans by just 3 points making this his Game of the Round.
• Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Lions, Easily Impressed II being the sole Lions adherent, a consequence of its successfully tipping them last weekend.
• The Bulldogs are favoured 12-1 over Carlton. In this game it's Easily Impressed I that's the outlier, here because Carlton won and the Dogs lost last weekend.
• Melbourne are favoured 7-6  over Adelaide.

Chi bagged 5 from 8 on line betting last weekend to take him to just 15 from 32 from the season. ELO managed just 4 from 8 but remains at a healthy 20 from 32 for the season. Chi's and ELO's Mean Absolute Prediction Errors reflect this difference in line betting performance: Chi's on 34.6 points per game and ELO's on 31.3 points per game, just 0.8 points behind BKB.

Chi's Line Bets are: Port Adelaide (probably - we've no market yet), Essendon, West Coast, Richmond, Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

ELO's Line Bets are: St Kilda (again, probably), Essendon, Hawthorn, Kangaroos, Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

Pick the Teams' Finishing Order Competition

A while back I mentioned that we'd be running a competition this year in which the aim will be to predict the finishing order of all 16 teams. The winner will be the person whose predictions are closest to the actual ladder positions at the end of the home and away season.

Here are the logistics of the competition:

• Entry is free. (I was considering charging a nominal entry fee and using this to create a prize pool but I thought a free competition would encourage higher levels of participation.)
• To be eligible, entries must be received by me by midnight on Wednesday, May 6th. That means you'll be able to use the ladder as at the end of Round 6 as the basis for your predictions.
• An entry comprises a finishing order for all 16 AFL teams.
• Only one entry is allowed per person.
• Order will be determined by the Kendall's tau measure as described below.
• The final ladder positions for the teams will be those published on the www.afl.com.au site at the end of the home and away season.
• The prize? You'll gain the people's ovation and fame forever (with apologies to Iron Chef).

Okay, so that's the logistics. Now for some detail. (You can safely skip the remainder of this blog if you're not interested in how we'll decide on a winner.)

To judge the winner we need a measure of proximity for two rankings so that we can compare each entrant's predicted ranking with the ranking provided by the competition ladder. The statistical community has a number of such measures in its armoury, one of which is called Kendall's tau and this is the measure that I'll be using to determine whose predictions are closest to the final ladder.

Kendall's tau is based upon the notions of concordance and discordance. Imagine that, in my predictions, I've placed Team A above Team B. Then, if the end of season ladder has Team A finishing above Team B (with any number of teams in between), my rankings of Team A and B are said to be concordant with the final ladder. If instead, Team B finishes ahead of Team A, my rankings of Team A and B are then said to be discordant with the final ladder.

Now imagine that I considered every possible pair of teams and I counted the number of concordances and discordances in my rankings compared to the final ladder. Kendall's tau is defined as the difference between the number of concordances and the number of discordances, divided by the total number of possible pairs of teams.

The closer is Kendall's tau to 1, the closer my predictions match the final ladder; the closer it is to 0, the more random my predictions are relative to the final ladder; and the closer it is to -1, the closer my predictions are to a reverse ordering of the final ladder, an outcome that would surely be far more embarrassing than registering a zero. The winner of our competition will be the person with the greatest Kendall's tau.

A small example might help to clarify all this. So, let's assume that there were only six teams in the competition, imaginatively named A through F. Then, say I predicted they'd finish B, F, D, A, C, E but that they instead - with a commendable sense of order - actually finished A, B, C, D, E, F. 

Now, there are 15 possible pairs of teams that we can consider, and my predictions are concordant with the actual finishing order for 8 of these pairs (A&C, A&E, B&C, B&D, B&E, B&F, C&E and D&E) and discordant for 7 of them (A&B, A&D, A&F, C&D, C&F, D&F and E&F). My Kendall's tau would therefore be (8-7)/15 or about 0.07, which is barely better than the chance score of 0.

Somebody else who predicted a finishing order of B, A, D, E, C, F would, instead, register a Kendall's tau of 0.6, having just 3 discordances and 12 concordances. I think it's fairly apparent that this latter ordering is far closer to the actual ordering than was mine.

One of the nice properties of Kendall's tau is that it has a probabilistic interpretation. If the Kendall's tau calculated for your predictions is K then the probability of concordance between your predictions and the ladder for any two randomly chosen teams is (K+1)/2. So, for the example just presented where K was 0.6 this probability would be 0.8, which could also be derived by noting that there were 12 concordances in the 15 possible pairings and 12/15 = 0.8.