There are now 11 teams with about a 9-in-20 or better chances of playing Finals, six teams with about a 7-in-20 or better chances of finishing Top 4, and six teams with about a 1-in-16 or better chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: over 95% chance of being a finalist; 80% chance of finishing Top 4; and 40% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, and Geelong: roughly 90% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of finishing Top 4; and 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide and St Kilda: roughly 75 to 80% chance of being finalists; 35 to 40% chance of finishing Top 4; and 6 to 7% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs: 55% chance of being finalists; 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and 2% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon, and Sydney: 45 to 50% chance of being a finalist; 10 to 15% chance of finishing Top 4; and 0.5 to 1.5% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Richmond and Gold Coast: roughly 10 to 12% chance of being finalists; 1.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and little to virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Fremantle and GWS: 6 to 8% chance of being a finalist; 0.5 to 1% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, Hawthorn, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

There are now 11 teams with about 1-in-2 or better chances of playing Finals, six teams with about a 7-in-20 or better chances of finishing Top 4, and six teams with about a 1-in-14 or better chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: roughly 95% chance of being a finalist; 75% chance of finishing Top 4; and 35% chance of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions: roughly 80 to 85% chance of being finalists; 50 to 55% chances of finishing Top 4; and 10 to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide and St Kilda: roughly 70 to 75% chance of being finalists; 35% chance of finishing Top 4; and 7% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton: 65% chance of being finalists; 25% chance of finishing Top 4; and 5% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon, and Sydney: 20% chance of being a finalist; 4% chance of finishing Top 4; and 1 to 2% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Gold Coast and Richmond: roughly 10 to 15% chance of being finalists; 1 to 2.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and little to virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. GWS and Fremantle: 5 to 7% chance of being a finalist; 0.5 to 1% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

There are still nine teams with about 3-in-5 or better chances of playing Finals, about a 1-in-4 or better chances of finishing Top 4, and about 1-in-30 or better chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: roughly 95% chance of being a finalist; 75% chance of finishing Top 4; and 35% chance of being Minor Premier

2. St Kilda, Geelong, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions: roughly 75 to 85% chance of being finalists; 40 to 55% chances of finishing Top 4; and 10 to 14% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide, Sydney, Adelaide, and Essendon: roughly 60 to 65% chance of being finalists; 25 to 30% chance of finishing Top 4; and 3 to 4% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs and Carlton: 45 to 50% chance of being finalists; 15 to 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and 2% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Richmond: 20% chance of being a finalist; 4% chance of finishing Top 4; and little chance of being Minor Premier

6. Gold Coast and Fremantle: roughly 8 to 10% chance of being finalists; 1 to 1.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and little to virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. GWS: 5% chance of being a finalist; little chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. West Coast, North Melbourne, and Hawthorn: 0.5 to 1% chance of being finalists; little to no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

There are now nine teams with 60% or better chances of playing Finals, better than 25% chances of finishing Top 4, and about 5% or better chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood: roughly 90% chance of being a finalist; 70% chance of finishing Top 4; and 30% chance of being Minor Premier

2. St Kilda, Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions: roughly 75 to 80% chance of being a finalist; 40 to 45% chance of finishing Top 4; and 9 to 12% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong, Port Adelaide, Essendon, and Adelaide: roughly 60 to 70% chance of being a finalist; 25 to 35% chance of finishing Top 4; and 5 to 6% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton: 50% chance of being a finalist; 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and 4% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Western Bulldogs: 35% chance of being a finalist; 9% chance of finishing Top 4; and 1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Richmond and Fremantle: 20 to 25% chance of being a finalist; 5 to 6% chance of finishing Top 4; and little chance of being Minor Premier

7. Gold Coast and GWS: roughly 7 to 10% chance of being a finalist; 1 to 1.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and little to virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, West Coast, and Hawthorn: 1% chance of being a finalist; little chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

The latest simulation results suggest that the competition is, if anything, now even more wide open, with 7 teams enjoying 60% or better chances of playing Finals, better than 25% chances of finishing Top 4, and better than 4% chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Collingwood and Melbourne: roughly 90% chance of being a finalist; 60 to 70% chance of finishing Top 4; and 20 to 30% chance of being Minor Premier

2. St Kilda: roughly 75 to 80% chance of being a finalist; 45 to 50% chance of finishing Top 4; and 10 to 15% chance of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton, Geelong, and Sydney: roughly 65 to 70% chance of being a finalist; 30 to 40% chance of finishing Top 4; and 5 to 10% chance of being Minor Premier

4. Port Adelaide : 60% chance of being a finalist; 25% chance of finishing Top 4; and 4% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon, and Western Bulldogs: 40 to 50% chance of being a finalist; 10 to 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and 1 to 3% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Fremantle and Gold Coast: 15 to 25% chance of being a finalist; 3 to 6% chance of finishing Top 4; and little chance of being Minor Premier

7. GWS and North Melbourne: roughly 6 to 7% chance of being a finalist; 1% chance of finishing Top 4; and little to virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Hawthorn and West Coast: 2% chance of being a finalist; little chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

The latest simulation results suggest that the competition remains very wide open, with 6 teams enjoying 60% or better chances of playing Finals, better than 30% chances of finishing Top 4, and better than 5% chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.

This weeks’ simulation shows an even greater levelling of the playing field, with 8 teams enjoying better than 60% chances of playing Finals, better than 30% chances of finishing Top 4, and better than 5% chances of finishing as Minor Premiers.

The overwhelming feature of the latest simulations is the apparent levelling of the playing field they suggest, especially in terms of which team might take out the Minor Premiership.

For reasons outlined in a blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal, I’ll only be running - at least for now - hot simulations this season, which I’ll continue to refer to as Heretical Simulations for reasons of historical continunity and personal amusement.

This blog post has been removed as it used incorrect initial team ratings (I applied the regression to the mean TWICE).

A corrected version will be posted in the next 24-48 hours.

On balance, the semi-final results served to bolster the Cats’ chances at the expense of the Swans’, although, between them they all but have the Flag wrapped up according to the latest simulation results.

Just six games now to simulate for games played over a three-week period, with Sydney now guaranteed a home Preliminary Final against an interstate team, and Geelong only enjoying that same benefit if the Lions spring the upset this week and defeat the Dees. That has quite a dramatic impact on the simulation results, as we’ll see.

With the benefit of some time for review, I discovered that my simulation code has been, among other things, calculating Venue Performance Values in what can only be described as an unexpected manner. The same issue affected both my Standard and my Alternative approaches and has been corrected for this week’s version.

With just the one home and away round remaining, time for a look at the latest set of simulations for the 2022 Finals.

The Standard and Heretical simulations are now just conditional probability calculations, and they reveal the following:

1. Geelong: Minor Premiers

2. Sydney: 85% chances for Top 4

3. Collingwood, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions: 55-60% chances for Top 4

4. Fremantle: 40-50% chances for Top 4

5. Richmond: Play Finals

6. Carlton: 70% chances of playing Finals

7. Western Bulldogs: 30% chances of playing Finals

8. St Kilda: huge longshot to play Finals

Time for a look at the latest set of simulations for the 2022 Finals.

At this point in the season, simulations are essentially simple mathematics, but let’s see what that mathematics reveals for one last time this season.

The latest Standard and Heretical simulations suggest the following:

1. Geelong: virtually assured of the Minor Premiership

2. Collingwood and Sydney: 70-75% chances for Top 4

3. Melbourne: 60% chances for Top 4

4. Brisbane Lions and Fremantle: 45-50% chances for Top 4

5. Richmond: 85% chances of playing Finals

6. Carlton: 80% chances of playing Finals

7. St Kilda and Western Bulldogs: 15-20% chances of playing Finals

Time to take a look at the latest set of simulations for the 2022 Finals, which begin in exactly one month’s time.

This will probably be the second-last time I do these simulations for the men’s competition in 2022, because home-and-away ladder simulations are generally fairly boring with just a single round to play

These latest ones - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Geelong: assured of a Top 8 finish and almost certainly a Top 4 finish, and about 90% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Melbourne and Sydney: assured of a Top 8 finish, 85-90% chances for Top 4, and around 2-8% chances for the Minor Premiership (higher for Melbourne)

3. Collingwood and Brisbane Lions: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 45-50% chances for Top 4, and longshots for the Minor Premiership

4. Fremantle: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish and about 25% chances for Top 4

5. Carlton: 80-85% chance of playing Finals and around 4-5% chance of a Top 4 finish

6. Western Bulldogs: 50-60% chances of playing Finals

7. St Kilda and Richmond: around 30-35% chance of playing Finals

8. Gold Coast and Port Adelaide: longshots to play Finals

9. Hawthorn, Essendon, Adelaide, GWS, West Coast, and North Melbourne: looking to 2023 and draft picks

With just a month’s worth of football to go now until the Finals, let’s take a look at the latest set of simulations for those Finals.