To me - and I admit I might be in a small echoey theatre all but alone in applauding on this one - it’s fascinating to watch how the markets respond to a result from a game involving the top teams, and to compare it to how emotionless models respond to that same result. The Dogs’ loss to the Cats in Round 14 has provided a perfect example of this.

But, more on that in a moment.

In the meantime, based on the latest Standard Methodology simulations, we still have 11 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and eight that have about a 2-in-3 or better shot. There are also five teams that have roughly a 1-in-2 shot or better at the Top 4.

Under the Heretical Methodology, there are also 11 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and also eight that have about a 2-in-3 or better shot. There are also five teams that have a roughly 1-in-2 shot or better at the Top 4.

In the latest Standard Method simulations, we are up to 11 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and eight that have a 2-in-3 or better shot. There are also five teams that have a better than 1-in-3 shot at the Top 4.

Under the Heretical Methodology, there are also 11 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, but just seven that have a 2-in-3 or better shot (with Sydney just missing out). There are also five teams that have a better than 1-in-3 shot at the Top 4.

In the latest Standard Method simulations, we are now down to 10 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and eight that have a 3-in-5 or better shot. There are also five teams that have a better than 4-in-9 shot at the Top 4.

Under the Heretical Methodology, there are also 10 teams that have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, but just seven that have a 3-in-5 or better shot. There are also five teams that have a better than 4-in-9 shot at the Top 4.

In the latest Standard Method simulations, eleven teams now have a better than 1-in-4 shot at playing Finals, and six a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4. Under the Heretical Methodology, the equivalent numbers are the same.

If we raise the cutoff to having a better than even chance, both methodologies now have 7 teams meeting this bar for a shot at Finals, and 3 meeting it for a shot at Top 4.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog. Note that I have assumed no change in fixturing for the remainder of the season. In hindsight, I should probably at least have switched St Kilda into home team status for their return clash with Sydney later in the season)

With the change in venue for two of this week’s games, there are some small changes in the simulation results, as shown below.

A dozen teams still have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, but only five a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4, according to the latest round of simulations using the Standard Methodology. Under the Heretical Methodology, the equivalent numbers are the same.

If we raise the cutoff to having a better than even chance, both methodologies still have 8 teams meeting this bar for a shot at Finals, and 3 meeting it for a shot at Top 4.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog)

The latest round of Standard Methodology home-and-away simulations still has 12 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and now 8 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4. Even under the Heretical Methodology, which (as by now I’m sure you know) tends to push probability estimates closer to 0 and 1, there are 11 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and 8 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4.

The latest round of Standard Methodology home-and-away simulations still has 12 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals (down 1), and 7 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4 (also down 1). Even under the Heretical Methodology, which tends to push probability estimates closer to 0 and 1, there are 12 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals (no change), and 7 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4 (also no change).

On that basis, it seems very unlikely that this year’s Finalists have, in any way, been largely determined.

The latest round of Standard Methodology home-and-away simulations has 13 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and 8 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4. Even under the Heretical Methodology, which tends to push probability estimates closer to 0 and 1, there are 12 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and 7 teams with a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4.

The latest round of home-and-away simulations still hint at a very competitive season, at least in the context of Finals places.

The latest round of home-and-away simulations is highlighting just what a competitive year we seem likely to have, at least in terms of the number of teams still with reasonable chances of playing Finals.

As chance-changing rounds go, I think the latest one was amongst the most change-inducing.

With almost 10% of the home-and-away season completed (truly), let’s review the latest MoSHBODS-based simulations and see what they suggest about the relative chances for the teams of playing Finals football.

The first round results have changed most people’s estimates of many of the 18 team’s chances of playing Finals football, and they’ve changed MoSHBODS’ estimates, too.

Around this time last season I created my first ever pre-season simulation of the final home-and-away ladder. We all saw the enduring value that had, so I thought I’d do it again this year.

Again I’ll be using two methodologies, which I call Standard and Heretical, and that are described below. Hopefully this year we’ll be able to compare and contrast these two approaches for a full 23 rounds.

Perhaps never more than this year, have assumptions about the effects on teams’ chances of where Finals are being played been more important.

With the venues (and teams) for the two Semi Finals now determined, along with the venues for both Preliminary Finals, a few more sources of variability have been removed from any projections of the Finals series.

Most years, by this time in the season I would have already, along with simulating the final home-and-away ladder, have also simulated the Finals. But this year I’ve just felt that there have been too many unknown, unknowns to add into the sources of variability.

In terms of Finals positions, six teams are now locked in, leaving the Dogs, Saints, Dees, and Giants to fight for the remaining two spots, and with the first two of that quartet far more likely to make it than the last two.

Using the Standard Methodolgy (or, let’s be honest, basic maths), Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond, West Coast, and St Kilda are all essentially certainties for playing Finals. Collingwood are 9 chances in 10, Western Bulldogs about 5 in 9, GWS 3 in 10, and Melbourne 1 in 4.