There’s a little less red in the bars for Geelong this week, as the Brisbane Lions’ prospects for the Minor Premiership rose to better than 1 in 5.

Along with that increase came an increase in the Lions’ Flag prospects, which are now estimated to be about 19%, just 1% point below Geelong’s. Geelong, however, continues to win most of its Flags after finishing Minor Premiers, while the Lions win more often from 2nd spot on the home-and-away ladder.

Behind that pair, West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood, and GWS are all assessed as about 10 to 14% chances for the Flag.

Eight teams now have strong claims to a spot in the Finals (70% or better) with only two more, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn, having estimated double-digit chances. The race for the Top 4 is a little less settled, with six teams having a 40% or better shot and one more, Essendon, an estimated 14% chance.

Geelong’s loss and Brisbane Lions’ win meant that the Cats’ grip on the Minor Premiership loosened. It is now only a 62% chance for the Minor Premiership, with the Brisbane Lions’ chances rising to 22%.

In the latest simulation replicates we see Brisbane Lions moving up to be second-favourites for the Flag, and now most-likely to finish 2nd at the end of the home-and-away season. The Lions win the Flag in about 18% of replicates, and do so from 1st or 2nd on the ladder about half the time.

Geelong wins the Flag about 22% of the time, but does so almost exclusively after finishing as Minor Premiers.

Collingwood, West Coast Coast, and Richmond are all 12 to 15% chances for the Flag, but most often win it after finishing outside the Top 2 on the final home-and-away ladder.

We’re now in a situation where 8 teams have a 65% or better shot at the Finals, and a ninth team, Port Adelaide, has about a 1 in 3 shot. As well, four teams now have a 60% or better shot at a Top 4 finish, and two more better than 1 in 4 chances. Geelong still has the proverbial stranglehold on the Minor Premiership, but of the three teams trailing them by two wins, Brisbane Lions is estimated as having by far the greatest chance of overhauling them.

Let’s, again, simulate the Final series by applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations.

We’re now in a situation where 8 teams have a better than 60% shot at the Finals, and a ninth team, Essendon, still has an almost 50% shot. Five teams now also have about a 1 in 2 or better shot at a Top 4 finish. It’s beginning to look a lot more like musical chairs …

Let’s, for the second time this season, simulate the Final series by applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations.

We’re now down to just 7 teams with a 1 in 2 or better shot at the Finals, but six teams with (roughly) a 1 in 3 or better shot at a Top 4 finish.

So far this season the simulations have ended at the conclusion of the home and away season. Today we'll extend the simulations to include the entirety of the Finals series.

With Essendon putting a large dent in their Finals hopes last weekend, we’ve now only 9 teams with a 1 in 2 or better shot at the Finals, but still five teams with (roughly) a 1 in 3 or better shot at a Top 4 finish.

After last week’s results there are now 10 teams with (roughly) a 1 in 2 or better shot at the Finals, and five teams with (roughly) a 1 in 3 or better shot at a Top 4 finish.

We’re starting to see some winnowing of the teams this week, with only 10 now with at least at 1 in 3 shot at the Finals, down two teams compared to last week, and only four teams with a 1 in 3 or better shot at a Top 4 finish.

We’re starting to see some winnowing of the teams this week, with only 10 now with at least at 1 in 3 shot at the Finals, down two teams compared to last week, and only four teams with a 1 in 3 or better shot at a Top 4 finish.

The likely battle for the lower half of spots in the Final 8 is possibly best highlighted by the fact that, in the most-recent simulations, 7 teams are expected to record between 10.5 and 12.3 wins, and 12 teams have a least a 1 in 3 shot at finishing in a Finals position.

The results of the latest 50,000 simulations appear below.

The results of the latest 50,000 simulations appear below.

The results of the latest 50,000 simulations appear below.

Is it really only Round 6 and am I, honestly, proffering opinions about the end of the home-and-away season in a year where even the bookmakers have been only slightly more useful than a coin in tipping winners? As I kid, I reckon I was pretty steadfast in the face of relentless peer pressure (yeah, I was a geek the too), yet here am I, at my age, guessing into the wind about games to be played in August …

The latest simulations of the home and away season appear below.

We’re four rounds in, so it must be time to start simulating the remainder of the home and away season to investigate, at this very early stage, how MoSHBODS sees the teams faring from here.