Normally I wouldn't bother simulating just a single round prior to the Finals, but this year it seemed like it might be an interesting exercise - even if for no other reason than to estimate just how likely it is that the Tigers will finish 9th.

This weekend's results clarified most of the remaining issues about the composition of the Top 4 positions on the final home-and-away ladder, but left much to be resolved about the eventual 8th-place finisher.

Sydney's victory over Port Adelaide on the weekend - possibly their last serious challenge during the home-and-away season - served to firm up their Minor Premiership chances, as reflected by the latest version of the MatterOfStats simulations

With just four rounds of the home-and-away season yet to be played the levels of uncertainty about the final ladder position of each team are rapidly diminishing.

It seems now fairly likely that the final positions within the Top 8 in Season 2014 will be decided by a combination of percentage and games won, so I've this week had to amend the approach I've been using in my simulations from years past to allow for this reality.

Based on 25,000 simulations, Round 17 results provided relatively little fresh information about the likely make-up of the 2014 Finalists.

With Port Adelaide and Hawthorn both losing last weekend, Sydney's win over the Eagles served to boost its minor premiership hopes considerably, as reflected in the manhattan chart summarising the most-recent set of 10,000 simulations.

This year I'm starting the process of projecting the Final 8 a little early.