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2017 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders Update

This week, the TAB over/under markets went up over about a 45 minute period, which makes last week's delays all the more strange. 

What we have is consensus across all four forecasters that the Western Bulldogs will score over 100 points and be the round's high-scorer this week, and near-consensus - with MoSHBODS the lone dissenter - that Collingwood will be the only other team to register three figures.

There's a lot more debate about the round's likely low-scoring team, with MoSSBODS opting for West Coast (74 points), MoSHBODS tipping Hawthorn (74 points), and both the TAB and Centrebet choosing Gold Coast (75 points or thereabouts).

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the round's high-scoring game as the Lions v Dogs clash, with the final total in that game likely to be in the 191 to 194 point range, while the TAB and Centrebet have it as the Roos v Pies game with a total of around 195 points.

All four forecasters are suggesting that the average total for the round will be about 176 points per game, which is about a goal higher than last week's average, and also higher than the averages in Rounds 17 and 18. The all-season average now has fallen below 180 points per game for the first time at the end of a round this year.

WAGERS

Last week, as we'll discuss in a minute, was not a good one for the Totals forecasts of the MoS twins, so, in that respect at least, it's reassuring to see MoSSBODS' estimated overlays all in the single-digit range this week.

In three of them, however, the overlay is large enough to trigger wagers, two of them overs and the other an unders wager. Looking at the two overs wagers, the forecast for the Gabba on Saturday for the Lions v Dogs game is a non-threatening "cloud clearing", while that for the Adelaide derby on Sunday is a less-encouraging "shower or two". I find myself wondering these days if the larger bookmakers now have meteorologists on call when they frame and update some of their markets.

Last week saw MoSSBODS and the TAB again share all four 'bests' in relation to mean absolute errors (MAEs), with MoSSBODS recording the lowest MAE for Margin (22.4 pts), and the TAB recording the lowest MAE for Home team scores (15.6 pts), Away team scores (15.3 pts), and Totals (25.8 pts).

That left MoSHBODS still with the best season-long performance on game Margin (28.6), but allowed the TAB to move into 1st on Away team scores (17.4). Centrebet retains 1st on Home team scores (17.8), and the TAB 1st on Totals (21.5).

As alluded to earlier, last week was a poor one for the MoS twins in terms of correctly predicting unders/overs results. MoSSBODS registered 2 from 9 performances against both the TAB and Centrebet to move to an 85 from 162 (53%) season-long records against the TAB, and an 83 from 162 (51%) record against Centrebet Totals. MoSHBODS did slightly worse, recording 2 from 9 against the TAB, and just 1 from 9 against Centrebet. It now has an 84 from 162 (52%) record against both the TAB and Centrebet.